Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 20 at 05:02 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
Are you getting worried about Dallas's offensive line yet? I thought it was the weak link even before the rash of injuries. Can Tony Romo really compete with Manning and Brees if he's running for his life all day long?
BILL REHOR [CULVER CITY, CA]
A:
It’s definitely a concern. They released Flozell Adams in the offseason; they hope youngster Doug Free can handle that left tackle job. It looks like left guard Kyle Kosier will be out until after their week 4 bye. And right tackle Marc Colombo has a knee injury that has him in doubt for the opener. So I agree: That line is a concern.
Question 2:
It seems like you have a couple of players that you really like and players that you don't like. Who are a few of the players that you normally target to get in a draft, and who do you make sure to avoid at all costs?
Jason Howes [STEWARTVILLE, MN]
A:
I don’t go into drafts saying, “I’ve got to get this guy,” or “That’s a player I want to avoid.” I build my draft board, then just select the highest-rated player when it’s my turn to pick. Right now, going into drafts, I’m expecting to select C.J. Spiller, Clinton Portis, Jabar Gaffney, Mohamed Massaquoi and the San Francisco defense. I seem to be a little higher on those guys than others.
Question 3:
I know you've answered this question in previous years but I finally have the chance to participate in an auction league. How do I set a market value to base my auction on?
MATTHEW MOYLE [LAS VEGAS, NV]
A:
Think of it in draft terms. At what point in the draft do you get down to where you don’t really care about the player? At kicker, for example, maybe you’d kind of like to have Nate Kaeding or Ryan Longwell. Otherwise, you’re pretty sure you can get a kicker that’s as good as any other in the last few rounds of the draft. So let’s say that two kickers are worth more than the $1 minimum. For me at quarterback, I find that number to be about 14. I’m interested in getting Donovan McNabb or Ben Roethlisberger as a second quarterback – those guys are worth more than $1. But I am not interested in paying more than $1 for Chad Henne or Vince Young (guys who are around 15th and 16th on my board). So let’s say 14 quarterbacks are worth more than $1. At running back and wide receiver, about 30 is probably the number. (At receiver, let’s go down to 28 if you start two; let’s go up to 35 if you start three). Maybe 10 tight ends. Maybe 3-5 defenses. Once you’ve completed that step, you’ve created baselines at each position. The value of the difference-maker players is determined by how much better they are than the best of the $1 players at each position.
Question 4:
Based on the yardage/TD sheet, aside from A.Johnson, you don't have the next wide receiver slated until 17 I think. If you're picking at the very end of round 1 and the QBs are gone is that the time to take the two highest-rated RBs? Or do you grab one and the next best wide receiver?
Bill Petilli [Larchmont, NY]
A:
There can be an advantage, I think, in diversifying position. In the Fanex draft, I selected a whole bunch of wide receivers early. Four of my first five picks were wide receivers (you can start four in that league). So that starts to limit my options in the later rounds, where I’m not as well positioned to select a great wide receiver deal (if there’s one there) in the 8th, 9th or 10th rounds. You can back yourself into a corner a little bit. But the overall numbers (my overall numbers, anyway) suggest there isn’t much of a difference between that tier of receivers. I currently have Johnson at No. 8 in your format, and then wide receivers holding 10 of the 21 spots between 16th and 36th.
Question 5:
I can keep two players in an 8-team league. Miles Austin for my 15th round pick is a no-brainer. The other three I'm considering are Benson (7th), Schaub (11th) and Finley (14th).
TOM HICKS [DURHAM, NC]
A:
I’ll go with Finley. He’s the top tight end on my board, so to get him in the 14th round represents the best overall value.
Question 6:
Two questions, just to be clear: First, in the magazine cheat sheets, are you assuming a 10-team league? Because the experts poll assumes a 10-team league. Second, in prior years you indicated that you make the magazine cheat sheets sometime after the experts do their poll, closer to publication (makes sense.) Were there any major team signings or other news in between yours and the experts' rankings that readers might consider when comparing the two (I mean MAJOR, like the Brandon Marshall signing, or Roethlisberger's suspension, for examples.) And Third, because like Dice says, "you got the BONUS plan!," I think you should champion rules that award more fantasy points for 2-point conversions and kick returns for touchdowns. Great magazine, I win with it every year.
Jose Montana [ROSEMEAD, CA]
A:
With my overall rankings, I’m looking at a league with 11-12 teams. I think that format is more popular. If you want to toy around with 8- and 10-team leagues, it’s best to use the CUSTOM CHEAT SHEET feature. (To really dial in the overall portion, you must also use the preferences in the “Auction Profile” section). With the Experts Poll, there is the possibility that something could happen after mid-May and before we print. That happened back in the ‘90s, when there was the Vicodin thing with Brett Favre. We also saw it with the Ben Roethlisberger motorcycle crash. It happened in early June, allowing us to change our projections in the magazine but too late for us to alter the Experts Poll.
Question 7:
I'm in a keeper league where we get TD and yardage points. For my 7th and final keeper spot I have to choose between 3 WRs. Keeping in mind it is a keeper league, who do you like between D.Bowe, A.Gonzalez and M.Crabtree?
Wayne Sales [Brenham, TX]
A:
Crabtree, and it’s not even close. I’ll take him for this year – by a lot – and he’s also the one who should have the best career. Once the 49ers get their quarterbacking situation figured out, he could be cranking out 80-90 catches per year. When you adjust what he did as a rookie to account for his holdout, he was very close to a 1,000-yard pace. Gonzalez, on the other hand, probably won’t even start in Indianapolis. And Bowe doesn’t seem to get along with Todd Haley in Kansas City.
Question 8:
I know there were some guidlines posted about how to setup the custom auction values, but I don't see it. in a 12-team league that starts 1 qb 2rb 2wr 1flex 1te 1d 1k how many total rb's/qb's/wr's should I put in there and how many go for more than the minimum bid?
Bill Petilli [Larchmont, NY]
A:
I suggest something along the lines of the following. Give each team a $100 cap. 28 quarterbacks will be selected (14 for more than $1). 18 kickers will be selected (3 for more than $1). 20 defenses (5 for more than $1). 22 tight ends (10 for than than $1). 60 running backs (30 for more than $1). 70 wide receivers (33 for more than $1).
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Question 1: Are you getting worried about...
Posted by DARREL OWEN | Aug. 20 at 10:17 AM
Do you still rank Romo in the Top 3-5 with the O-line concerns?
Question 1: Are you getting worried about...
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Aug. 20 at 04:20 PM
Yes. I still have Romo as the No. 3 quarterback on my board.
Question 1: Are you getting worried about...
Posted by KEVIN WEAKLAND | Aug. 21 at 03:37 PM
Don't see your strategy as being the best. A good example is last year so many guys ended up with Forte because they had him listed as a top 5 RB or Cutler because he was ranked too high and they didn't get guys like D, Jackson because he was ranked too low. This year I see y'all have Mendenhall ranked too high and S. Smith (Car) and you've bumped up Portis in this last update when reports suggest Shanny isn't even convinced he'll be the guy in DC. I've been doing this since 1987 and I use you guys as my main source but man there is such a thing as momentum from one season to the next. Also you have to look at the team the player is on. For instance S. Smith is on one of the worst teams in the NFL and he has a new QB throwing to him. He didn't have a banner year last season and you still have him ranked as a top 10 WR??? Another exampl is Mendenhall, I had this guy on my team last year and he was good but not as good as Grant or Benson. I don't think he's better than Greene either. Y'all have reported it yourselves that Pitt doesn't run the ball as well as they used to. So having him ranked as high as you do, it doesn't make sense. How does Maclin jump from the mid 20's to a top 15 WR? I had him last year to and he was a functional WR as a matter of fact I usually started him as my number 3 but he never really showed anything in any game that would suggest he'd be a top 15 WR this season. I'm sorry but he didn't. You've got him ranked ahead of guys like Nicks (who by the way I think will be this years version of D. Jackson) and Garcon and Colston no way is he better than those guys. I don't know what y'all put in the koolaid for this last cheat sheet but I'm kind of in a state of disbeleaf. No sir I have to go with my common sense ahead of the rankings at times when they just don't make sense.
Question 7: I'm in a keeper league...
Posted by JOHN MACHO | Aug. 22 at 08:03 AM
Ian, I can't help but notice how Anthony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe have dropped off the face of the earth with you. Unfortunately, I was all over Gonzalez, last year, on your advice. While an injury is forgivable, why the huge drop from one year is curious. To be fair, I had Benson in 4 leagues, thanks to you. Win some, lose some, but were you wrong about Bowe and Gonzalez last year?
Question 7: I'm in a keeper league...
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Aug. 23 at 03:21 AM
John, at the risk of speaking for Ian, I can at least tackle the Gonzalez question. A year ago he was slated to be the No. 2 wideout in one of the league's best passing offenses, after being pretty good in a reserve role the previous year. Then, he got hurt and was lost for the season, which was kind of unforseeable. Which happens. While he was gone, two other young wideouts emerged and played really well as the team cruised to the Super Bowl. Gonzalez is healthy now, but times have changed in Indy - he's not the clear No. 2, or even No. 3...he's fighting for snaps with two other guys who played really well last season. As for Bowe, I think the bottom line with him is that he too has experienced -- in Ian's eyes -- a dramatic change from last year. Last year he was the clear No. 1 on a team that had no other receivers. Now he's slipped behind another player, Chris Chambers, at least based on the latter part of last season. He got in the doghouse with his head coach and was suspended for four games by the league. So, I guess the expectations for both guys a year ago were wrong, based on various developments/injuries/etc. But there's nothing wrong with them making a huge drop this year, considering a whole lot has changed for both guys in 12 months.
Question 7: I'm in a keeper league...
Posted by PHIL SCARCELLA | Aug. 24 at 01:07 AM
and need help deciding between...Rodgers, Schaub, Peterson, S.Jackson and Calvin Johnson, all tds are 6 pts and its a PPR league...your thoughts ?