Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 27 at 05:10 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
In the mag you rank the o-lines. Now that we're about thru the preseason, can you re-rank them based on what you've seen so far? Or at a minimum, indicate ones that may be rising or falling if you were to re-rank them?
TOMMY LUCKNER [ANDOVER, KS]
A:
I will move Dallas and San Diego down. The Cowboys have injury issues (for at least the first month of the season). For the Chargers, left tackle Marcus McNeill is unsigned. It looks like Seattle will be without its first-round left tackle, Russell Okung, for the first month of the season, so let’s drop him down 6-10 spots. Denver needs to go up by 10 spots. Left tackle Ryan Clady (the best offensive lineman in that division) should be healthy for the opener. And Washington needs to be moved up substantially; that line was ranked 30th in the magazine, but I believe it will be above-average with the new scheme and the addition of tackle Jammal Brown.
Question 2:
Concussions for RBs can be scary, see Brian Westbrook last year (right after I traded for him, of course). I know Addai's playing it off as no big deal, but how do you see last night's concussions affecting his value, if at all? Does this give Brown a shot of being the more productive Indy back this year?
Jesse Woldman [Renton, WA]
A:
I'm not particularly concerned about Addai, but let me get more information. In terms of concussions, probably the three biggest risks among running backs would be Clinton Portis, Jahvid Best and Westbrook.
Question 3:
You have piqued my interest in Jermaine Gresham from the Bengals. My tight end is Dallas Clark but he is getting up there in years at age 31. It seams that from a dynasty perspective, he would be the perfect pick up. It is high praise that you feel he is the best tight end to come in the last decade.
JOHN SHELBROCK [FRANKENMUTH, MI]
A:
In each of their last two preseason games, Gresham has caught 3 passes in the first half. He’s been working with the first-unit offense. I just like the cut of his jib. He looks like an athletic guy with some speed and pass-catching ability. In a different situation (with less wide receiving talent around him) I would think Gresham would be a big star right away. With the age differences, I would select Gresham before thirtysomething stars like Antonio Gates, Dallas Clark and Tony Gonzalez.
Question 4:
Jamaal Charles. He, if I'm not mistaken, had the 2nd-most fantasy points next to Chris Johnson for the last 10 games of the season. I know the coach is making it sound like Thomas Jones will be starting, but seriously … I don't see any way he doesn't play. Why do you have him so low?
Bill Petilli [Larchmont, NY]
A:
I agree that he’s a great back. But I think Todd Haley wants to go with a committee approach. I think Jones will play a lot there, and that will stop Charles from putting up difference-maker stats.
Question 5:
I need your help. I am in a 8-man PPR league with the 8th pick. I am pretty sure the first round will go as follows. CJ, AP, MJD, Rice, AJ, Gore, then Moss. Who would you take with pick 8 and 9? We get 1 point per reception. Steven Jackson scares me and Turner doesn’t get catches, also Wayne I think will decline this year and you brought Marshall down on your board.
Ian Nelson [BOCA RATON, FL]
A:
I would select Turner and a wide receiver. Turner hasn’t caught many passes (just 11 in 27 games with the Falcons) but I think they’re going to use him more in the capacity. He’s caught 3 balls in his brief appearances in the preseason. He’s lost weight and is in terrific shape, so I think he’ll have a big year. The wide receiver won’t be Marshall. I’ve watched their first two preseason games, and to me, he looks like just an ordinary guy. He’s dropped 3 balls. They don’t seem to be using him right. Or maybe Chad Henne just hasn’t figured out how to throw the ball to him. Marshall’s one big catch in the Jacksonville game came right after Chad Pennington came in. Something isn’t quite right. So let’s drop him behind guys like Calvin Johnson and Roddy White.
Question 6:
Thanks for all the great info over the years. Our draft is an auction format and one of the best ways to ensure success is to get lucky enough to land a no-name diamond in the rough for a $1 off of your cap space. Could you tell us who your favorite late round sleepers are this year that might slip underneath the radar.
Scott DENHAM [PRATTVILLE, AL]
A:
Legedu Naanee. Kareem Huggins. Peyton Hillis. Matthew Stafford. Josh Freeman. Javon Ringer. Bernard Scott. Mike Williams.
Question 7:
I have the 3rd pick in my PPR Dynasty league. We keep 8 players every year. Mathews will go first. I will have one of the following three players fall to me at the 3rd pick: J.Best, Bryant or Spiller. In a our format which prospect has the best long-term potential?
Joe Tristano [WINONA, MN]
A:
I think they all look pretty good. I like what I’ve seen out of Best and Spiller. Bryant was supposedly phenomenal at the Dallas minicamp. I did a Fantasy Football event with John Clayton last night, and it’s his opinion that Bryant, even with the ankle issue and missed practice time, will lead the Cowboys in touchdown catches this year. I’m not quite that optimistic (I don’t see Bryant coming close to Miles Austin), but he does seem to be a pretty safe bet for long-term success.
Question 8:
Just accepted an abandoned PPR dynasty team. Would you rank these WR/TE for a dynasty team: Massaquoi, Golden Tate, Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman, Aaron Hernandez, Jared Cook, Legedu Naanee, James Jones, B.Lafell, A.Collie, K. Britt. How about RB: Keiland Williams, Buckhalter, Joique Bell, Brandon Jackson, LeGarrette Blount, Mike Bell. RB is the real problem with this team any suggestions of RB I may have missed? K.Huggins is gone. Thanks.
Spencer Frost [BURLINGTON, WI]
A:
Edelman has a lot of upside. He’ll be golden if Welker gets hurt. I also love the long-term potential of Joique Bell (but don’t expect him to do anything this year). The NFL is filled with undrafted guys who become 1,000-yard rushers. Willie Parker, Ryan Grant, Fred Jackson. I think Bell could become one of those guys.
Question 9:
I love your customized cheat sheet. However, you got some work to do on your "Overall Positions" category. What I really think you need is a "Customized Mock Draft". A few simple questions like Number of starters at each position and How many bench players - and here's where it gets interesting - how many QB, RB, WR, TE in round 1, round 2, round 3, etc... of last year's draft were taken? Or average them over 3 years our or whatever. I'm a true believer in studying your league's draft tendencies. It tends to be the same every year (I guess that's why they call it tendencies). If you know that going in, you can take full advantage on draft day. I'm sure your team of statisticians can come up with some sort of formula for this one. Waddaya say?
MIKE CLARK [LAS VEGAS, NV]
A:
I think we already have the tool you’re looking for. Go to your “Scoring Profile” at the website. Click on the “Auction Values” link near the bottom of that page. That’s where there’s the 5-minute survey where you provide us with the info we need on the key questions – how many starters? how many will be selected? where do you consider the statistical baselines to be located? The problem with this product is that it’s got that auction name on it. I think that scares off people who aren’t in salary-cap leagues. “I’m not doing an auction, I don’t need to use that,” is what most people say, I suppose. But that’s where you need to go. That’s where you’ll adjust our stat projections to fit perfectly into your league’s format.
Question 10:
I realize that most leagues do not really count kick return and punt return points as significant but mine does for both the team and the individual players (points for both yards and TDs) I was wondering if you could tell me who will be doing each of those duties (Kick Returner and Punt Returner) for each team in the league.
Richard Spinella [PROVIDENCE, RI]
A:
I don’t have all of those yet. Josh Cribbs will return both for Cleveland. Danny Amendola is very intriguing in St. Louis; he may return both, and the Rams probably will return more kickoffs than any other team (Amendola had over 1,600 yards on kickoff returns last year). Darren Sproles will return both for San Diego. But there are a lot of key jobs up for grabs. Most notably, C.J. Spiller was a stud kickoff returner at Clemson, but I’m not sure the Bills will use him in that role (he hasn’t fielded any in the preseason and isn’t listed on their depth chart in that role – he is listed as a backup punt returner). Devin Hester and Johnny Knox (Knox, more importantly, since kickoffs trump punts) might be used on returns, but they’re starting wide receivers, so I wouldn’t be surprised if that changed. Reggie Bush has been very good on punts, but he also could be pulled. Dexter McCluster, who’ll be a slot receiver for Kansas City, is listed as the No. 2 kickoff and punt returner on that depth chart. I don’t think the 49ers will use Ted Ginn on returns; they seem to like him as a receiver. With Anquan Boldin gone, Steve Breaston won’t return punts this year. I think DeSean Jackson will return punts for Philadelphia (and he’s one of the best). Roscoe Parrish, Jordan Shipley and Jacoby Jones are all third receivers who’ll return punts. That’s a rough draft to get you start.
Question 11:
Our draft format is rather unique. It is a 16-team league. For ease, assume no keepers. We auction the top 96 players and draft after that. Thinking is that at $1 per player, it's basically a draft anyway. With $100 per team, we are auctioning 12 QB, 35 RB, 9 TE, 36 WR, and 4 DEF. Using this format, do you have a clue as to how you would value the top RB, top WR and top QB for the auction to give me a starting point?
Tony Stewart [NEW CASTLE, IN]
A:
That’s easily done using the “Auction Values” section in your custom “Scoring Profile”. I would go with 15 quarterbacks and one defense, rather than the figures you mentioned. I suggest you start by trying 10 quarterbacks being worth more than the $1 minimum, along with 25 running backs, 5 tight ends, 26 wide receivers and no defenses.
Question 12:
In a 12-team PPR league, I had the No. 3 pick. I traded 1.3 and 4.10 for 1.7 and 3.7. I really wanted A.Johnson and felt he had better value at 1.7 and I was able to move up 15 spots later in the draft. In the end, the trade looks like this with players entered. Jones-Drew and Ronnie Brown for A.Johnson and P.Thomas. I don't think I gained much. At least I was able to grab D.Williams at 2.10, whom I wanted at 1.7 if I couldn't grab A.Johnson.
Michael Stanco [DANIA BEACH, FL]
A:
That was a gutsy move. I’ve got Johnson higher than Jones-Drew (in a PPR format) on my board. I wouldn’t expect him to be available at 1.07 in that kind of format. So the trade paid off nicely in that respect. The ultimate winner, though, likely will be determined by Brown and Thomas – which one can stay healthy and deliver the kind of stats to be a difference-maker back?
Question 13:
Currently hold the 7th pick in a 10-man PPR league. Figuring the draft goes CJ, AP, MJD, Rice, Gore, Turner. Do I go with A.Johnson here or maybe A.Rodgers? Or if I get A.Johnson, do I grab Brees, Manning or Rodgers on the way back or snag up another top WR?
Gary Wool [PHILADELPHIA, PA]
A:
Johnson is definitely the guy you want. In a PPR format, he’s arguably the No. 1 player overall. For the second round, I think you’ll be selecting either a quarterback or another pass catcher. You’ll have to see how it unfolds.
Question 14:
I know you're not big on draft results, but would value your opinion. I had the 5th pick in a PPR draft last night and was all set to take Andre Johnson when Ray Rice fell into my lap and completely changed the face of my draft. I was planning on taking 2-3 WRs early, but this is how it worked out. In order of round. Ray Rice, DeSean Jackson, Pierre Thomas, Ronnie Brown, Jermicheal Finley, Arian Foster, Eli Manning, Jabar Gaffney, Clinton Portis, Derrick Mason, Mohamed Massaquoi, Chris Chambers. I couldn't pass on Portis in the 9th round. Good value, I think. I'm not a big Eli Manning fan, but he was the best available on my board in the 7th round. Am I going to be OK with the WRs I have? I feel pretty good about this team considering the draft took a different turn than I expected. What do you think? Thanks for your input.
JOHN RUPPE [FORT MYERS, FL]
A:
Good team. You’ll win games. I think the third and fourth running backs you selected (Foster and Portis) will be better than the first and second (Thomas and Brown).
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Question 3: You have piqued my interest...
Posted by Eugene Hitt | Aug. 27 at 12:48 PM
Gresham over Gronkowski?
Question 9: I love your customized cheat...
Posted by Roy Sherman | Aug. 28 at 01:16 AM
I also love the customized cheat sheet. We use a modified PPR scoring system (.5pt/rec for WR & TE only), so the custom cheat sheet comes closer than the standard PPR cheat sheet. In addition to the .5PPR for WR & TE only, the only other thing the custom scoring profile can't handle, as far as I can tell, is that there is no way to give bonus pts for 300/100/100 pass/rush/rec performances.
Question 10: I realize that most leagues...
Posted by MARK CLURE | Aug. 27 at 01:18 PM
Our league also counts return yards(1 pt per 25 yards). I'm having a hard time figuring out who all but a few returners will be. Is there a reliable source that lists kick returners-and when do you think it might be available. Mark Clure(Mt Shasta, Ca)