Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 31 at 06:34 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I see Tampa Bay cut Derrick Ward. I have Kareem Huggins on my roster and Earnest Graham is available. Which one has the greater value?
DAVID BOZZELLI [INDIANAPOLIS, IN]
A:
It’s not a surprise. I think we could all see that Ward was in trouble. If Cadillac Williams gets hurt, my guess is that Huggins will be the featured back, but that Graham will get more work. I also think that the Bucs are considering using Graham as their goal-line guy. He’s their best inside runner – more of a banger than Williams or Huggins – and they lined him up as a short-yardage tailback in their preseason game against the Jaguars.
Question 2:
Thanks for the advice on adjusting the auction values to more accurately reflect the prices the guys in my league are willing to pay. It worked across the board. But that still leaves the question open: SHOULD I adjust those values? Entering the data as your web site recommends would leave me with both Brees and P.Manning, the top 2 QBs, just because my league seems to hate QBs. But it would take half my salary cap. Didn't you have the same thing happen earlier this year? So what's the best strategy? To set your values according to your (or my) projected stats and stick to them, or adjust them based on my knowledge of my league's quirks and habits?
So what's the best strategy? To set your values according to your (or my) projected stats and stick to them, or adjust them based on my knowledge of my league's quirks and habits?
Ross Colby [CHICAGO, IL]
A:
I’m probably not the right guy to ask. I struggle with this issue every year, always with the quarterback and tight end positions. I determine what I think the players are worth – as if I’m in an episode of Star Trek, competing against 11 other cyborg versions of myself. That’s what I consider the guys to be worth. But when the auction starts, and those half dozen tight ends who are all worth 10-15 percent of the cap simply don’t sell, it leaves you wondering how to proceed. I’m not interested in overpaying for running backs, just because everyone else is wrong. But on the other hand, I can’t spend all of my money on quarterbacks and tight ends. I usually try to adjust for some of this in the initial setup. If I feel that 16 quarterbacks should go for more than $1 minimum in an auction, I’ll roll that down to 12, lowering the value of all of the other quarterbacks. And I’ll do the same at tight end. And when the auction starts, I’ll be more willing to buy a running back for maybe 85-90 percent of his value, when I would never pay that much for a quarterback or tight end. Ultimately, when I’m done with the auction, I’ll go back and score it with my original, Star Trek cyborg values. How much talent did I get for my $100? That’s the key. If that number isn’t, at the very minimum, over $130, then the auction was a disappointment.
Question 3:
I have the 11th pick in a 12 team PPR league with 5 pts for a passing TD. I am going to target WR and QB in rounds 1 and 2. I think Steve Smith and Wes Welker will still be there in round 3. Of those two guys, who do you like and who would you select?
Robert Singer [Mars, PA]
A:
If Welker plays 16 games, he will be the most productive. He’ll catch 100 or 110 passes, and that makes him golden in that kind of format. But risk is part of the evaluation process, and there’s definitely a chance he’ll have problems with his surgically repaired knee and have to miss games. If you draft Welker, you really have to insure that pick with Julian Edelman, and he seems to be going in the 9th-11th rounds. Factoring that in, I think it makes more sense to select both of the Steve Smiths before Welker.
Question 4:
Our PPR league gives an insane amount of points to defenses that allow less than 21 points. We also award Ds for all return yardage. Defenses thus score as much good QBs and outstanding RBs and WRs. How can I tweak the custom rankings to reflect this?
David Brock [quincy, FL]
A:
In our stat projections file (which is in an Excel format), we’ve got projected points allowed for all teams. So you can look at those and jimmy rig something for that category. We don’t project return yardage, but I suppose it’s something we’ll have to look into since it seems like I’m getting more e-mails on it this year. If you’re giving equal weight to yards on punts versus kickoffs, you’ll want to focus on kickoffs and essentially ignore punts. NFL teams average only a little more than 300 yards on punt returns, but they average over 1,400 on kickoff returns. The best teams in the kickoff category tend to be the worst NFL teams (since they allow more points and thus return more kickoffs). The top 7 last year were the Lions, Bears, Rams, Dolphins, Browns, Kansas City and Tampa Bay – everybody in that group except for Miami was definitely in the bottom-feeder class. The top 8 the previous year in total kickoff return yardage were all lousy teams – Seattle, Chicago, Buffalo, Detroit, Oakland, San Francisco, St. Louis and Kansas City. So if you’re trying to guess which teams will finish with the most kickoff return yards, I think you definitely lock in on teams that will pick in the top 10 in next year’s draft. Rams, Bills, Bears and Browns would be my top 4.
Question 5:
Just finished my draft, and am happy with most of it: Turner, D.Williams, and Portis at RB, Welker, Ward and Berrian (though he had a bad report from the last preseason game) at WR (PPR, start two of each, no flex). Flacco was my keeper in the 10th round but felt I had to take Rivers when he was still available in the fifth. Two other less valuable keepers (McFadden and B.Edwards, long-term carryovers are undroppable in our format) hamstrung me a bit in the 7th and 8th rounds, so taking Rivers left me short at TE. I ended up missing out on Heath Miller by two slots in the 12th round and settled for Dustin Keller, then took a flyer on Rob Gronkowski at the end after having seen his impressive showing to date (Kevin Boss went undrafted, considered him strongly instead). Do you think I should test the waters and see if Flacco can net me a substantial TE upgrade, or should I let it ride and see if what I have ends up working out?
CHRIS BIELIK [BEACON FALLS, CT]
A:
Andy Richardson, who does the defensive rankings for us, likes Dustin Keller a lot. A couple of times, he’s sent me e-mails trying to get me to rank Keller higher. Keller scored in all three of the playoff games last year, and Richardson liked the role he played in one of their preseason games. I just don’t see it. I think the Jets look like a pretty safe bet to rank in the bottom half dozen in both passing yards and passing touchdowns. They’ve got some good wide receivers. So how can you manipulate the numbers to make Keller a top-10 tight end. I would trade either Flacco or Rivers for a big-time player at that position.
Question 6:
I'm in a 10-team yardage league that starts 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 RB/WR/TE. We're switching to an auction this year. Just wondering if your custom rankings take this into account by just adjusting the number of players taken at each position?
Don Schroeder [MINNEAPOLIS, MN]
A:
Exactly. At the bottom of “Scoring Profile”, there’s the “Auction Values” box. Check it. In your league, I would guess that about 35 quarterbacks will be selected, and you’ll want to designate that about 22 of them will go for more than the minimum. (With you starting double quarterbacks, guys like David Garrard, Chad Henne and Josh Freeman are worth more than the $1 minimum). If you consider RB-WR-TE to simply be just one big position – which I think is the way to go – then you’re looking at about 35 running backs, 8 tight ends and 38 wide receivers being worth more than the minimum. Maybe 50-55 running backs selected, 17 tight ends and 65 wide receivers? These are the kind of numbers you’ll be looking at, and then the computer will punch out the kind of values you’re looking for.
Question 7:
I'm in a ten team dynasty league w/a PPR scoring format. Three seasons ago when we started the league I picked up Calvin Johnson in the 5th round (in hopes that he would be a top flight receiver in the years to come). I received a trade offer. I get Miles Austin (worth a 12th round pick in our dynasty format), I give Calvin Johnson (worth a 5th round pick). It seems like I should go for it, but with the way the Cowboys have played in the preseason I'm not so sure. What do you recommend?
Isaac Powell [Richmond, KY]
A:
I would make the deal. Maybe Johnson outproduces Austin, but you have to look at the keeper slots. Would you rather have Johnson and a 12th-round pick? Or Austin and a 5th-round pick? That’s not even close.
Question 8:
I made a rookie mistake during our draft last Friday by picking two WR with the same bye week, but it's not until week 8, so a lot can happen between now and then. I have been offered Calvin Johnson and Steven Jackson for DeSean Jackson and Frank Gore. I also have Turner and Arian Foster at RB and Nicks and Gaffney at WR. The guy I would be trading with also has Rice and Donald Brown at RB and Welker and S.Moss at WR. Is getting Johnson a big enough upgrade at WR to justify giving up Gore for Steven Jackson?
Roy Sherman [COLUMBIA, TN]
A:
I wouldn’t worry about the week 8 bye. Who knows who’ll be on your roster at that time. Maybe Gaffney doesn’t work out and is released. Maybe Nicks breaks his leg. Maybe you pickup Danny Amendola off waivers and he’s catching 5 balls per week. I wouldn’t trade away two of your big-time players to position yourself for a bye week.
Question 9:
I'm in a PPR league where wide receivers and tight ends are combined. Under my league's keeper system, I have the opportunity to keep one of the following: (1) Cedric Benson with the 44th overall pick; (2) Dallas Clark with the 77th pick; (3) Ahmad Bradshaw with the 104th pick; or (4) Joe Flacco with the 137th pick. Who's the best value?
Jonathan Kline [LONG BEACH, CA]
A:
Converting to draft slots, we’re talking Benson (4.08), Clark (7.05), Bradshaw (9.08) and Flacco (11.05). I think those are all good deals, but I believe Benson represents the best value. Nice to get a late second-round running backs late in the fourth round.
Question 10:
I am in an auction league with an unusual scoring system and I need help using the custom feature on the cheat sheet. We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 DEF. We get 6 points for all TDs, 1 PPR and running backs get 1 point per carry. QBs get one point per completion and minus one per incompletion.
Dave Jost [EUGENE, OR]
A:
I take it you’re already familiar with the basics of our auction procedure? You’ll click on the “auction values” box at the bottom of the “Scoring Profile” (this is different than in the past, when there use to be a separate “Auction Profile”). Once in there, my ballpark guess would be that 28 quarterbacks will be selected, and 14 are worth more than the $1 minimum. For running backs, maybe 60 selected, with 33 for more than $1. Wide receivers: 70 selected and 40 for more than $1. Tight ends: 22 selected and 12 more than $1. You also have the carry and completion wrinkles. You can’t address these directly, but you can cover them by converting those stats into yards. If a running back averages 4.0 yards per carry, that translates into 2.5 points per 10 yards. So change your settings from running backs getting 1 point for every 10 rushing yards to 3.5 points for every 10 yards. That’s not ideal (some backs will average 5 yards per carry, and others will be down at 3.8), but I think it’s close enough. It’s a little more complicated at quarterback, where players are both gaining points for completions and losing points for incompletions. The average pass completion goes for about 11 yards, and quarterbacks complete (on average) 61 percent of their passes, so they’re also losing a point every 18 yards. If you make the assumption that no fantasy team will use the really bad quarterbacks from teams like the Browns, Bills and Raiders, then the completion percentage rises to 64 percent. Let’s use that, and give quarterbacks 1 additional point for every 30 yards (gaining 3 for every 30 yards, but losing 2). So if previously, you gave 1 point for every 20 passing yards, change that to 1.7 points for every 20 passing yards. Or 1 point every 13 passing yards if you wish. Not exact, but close enough, I think, to work for you.
Question 11:
I'm in a 12-man league that is primary a TD format (QBs get 4 points for a TD pass). We don't reward many points for yards, just 1 point for 50 yards running or 150 yds passing. Do I target a quarterback earlier in a format like this, as there appears there are only a few who are a lock for 30+ TDs?
Cliff Shannon [, ]
A:
I have running backs with the top 3 picks in a TD-only format – Peterson, Johnson, Turner. I’d have four quarterbacks in my top 14, and just one wide receiver (Randy Moss). Entering your draft, you may have your eyes open for a top-4 quarterback in the second round. If that doesn’t work out, however, there will be plenty of other good ones at that position later in the draft.
Question 12:
I just had a draft in which I took Calvin Johnson in the second round and Arian Foster in the fourth. My reserves include A.Bradshaw and J.Maclin. I did wait too long to take a QB (103rd pick) and ended up with C.Henne and M.Stafford. None of these guys inspired much enthusiasm, so I did not win any of the "He Had the Best Draft" awards from my fellow owners. Still, all those players, I think, could have solid, if not spectacular, seasons. I'd much rather draft guys with upside rather than pick name players (D.McNabb, Ricky Williams, H.Ward) on the downside of their careers. Your thoughts?
Paul Owers [RIVIERA BEACH, FL]
A:
I think you’ve got some good players. The key will be at quarterback. Can you get serviceable play out of Chad Henne. I kind of like Matthew Stafford. They’ve got a lot of weapons there, and it looks like he’s a lot better than he was as a rookie.
Question 13:
I have a serious decision to make regarding QBs. I have the 12th & 13th overall picks. We are a heavy quarterback league (1 point per completion). Assuming Brees, Manning, and Rodgers will all be gone, who should I go with? I'm targeting either Tom Brady (should be back to form after the knee injury) or Matt Schaub (led the league in completions last year and has the best WR in the game).
Mike McMillion [Ellicott City, MD]
A:
I’m not sure I would call it a “serious” decision. You’re playing fantasy football. But I think you’ve got a couple of nice options. Brady should bounce back; I believe he’s the No. 4 guy in that kind of format. But Schaub is right there. I thought the Texans looked very good against Dallas, and their receiving corps might be better than New England’s. Andre Johnson is a lot younger than Randy Moss. For their second and third wideouts, the Texans have Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones; Jones looked very good against Dallas. The Patriots have Wes Welker (who’s coming off a knee surgery) and Brandon Tate. Tight end looks close; Owen Daniels is better than New England’s one-two punch of rookies (Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez), but he’s coming off a knee surgery.
Question 14:
In our league, all TDs are 6 points, interceptions -3. Receptions are +.5 each. We play two QBs, would you rather have: 1. Eli Manning, Flacco, Mendenhall and Jennings or 2. Kolb, Matt Ryan, M.Turner and A.Johnson? Love your site, thanks for the help.
Dave (MOJO) Smith [WALLS, MS]
A:
Without running the exact numbers (you can do that via the Custom Scoring link), I will guess that the total will be slightly better for the second package of players.
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Question 3: I have the 11th pick...
Posted by Todd Weigel | Aug. 31 at 08:54 AM
I have Welker as a keeper in one PPR league, and I did draft Edelman. The problem is Welker might be healthy enough to play, but produce only a fraction what he usually does. Another problem: how Belichek handles injury reports. I'm secretly hoping Welker gets placed on the PUP.
Question 7: I'm in a ten team...
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Aug. 31 at 06:49 AM
Followup question about this question. If it's a dynasty league that started three years ago, aren't most of the good players already on rosters? Who are you drafting in the fifth, and especially the 12th, rounds? The reason I ask is because a fifth- versus a 12th-round pick seems like a much bigger deal in a typical re-draft league than a dynasty format. My annual dynasty-league draft, which only features rookies and veteran free agents not rostered, only goes three rounds. By the fifth round, there wouldn't be much left in the way of functional players. Unless you really think you'll be getting a good player with that pick, I think I'd rather have Johnson in a dynasty format.
Question 11: I'm in a 12-man league...
Posted by Cliff Shannon | Sep. 01 at 02:07 AM
I'd assume then with 4 QB's in your top 14 then you might want to target a QB in the mid to late 1st round in a 12 team league.
Question 11: I'm in a 12-man league...
Posted by Ed Klein | Sep. 03 at 10:47 AM
#11 Pick in a snake 12 man format. Yardage league with 4pts TD Pass; 6Pt rushing & receiving. Do you like at least 1 RB at #11 or #14 overall or go QB & WR combo? What names do you like in those scenarios? Thanks