Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Sep. 06 at 07:10 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
Each year someone asks about kick returners and I haven't seen the list this year. I was in a new league last year that awards 1 point for 25 return yards. We RODE Cribbs all year and he was the #50 overall scoring player. Who are the top 15 return men in the league?
DAVID DeNARDO [WEST MIFFLIN, PA]
A:
I’ve touched on these concepts in past weeks, but I will remind you of some overview points for this kind of league. Most notably, kickoffs are important than punts – any kickoff returner is going to get about 20 yards every time the ball is in his hands. Also, bad teams return more kickoffs, so their kickoff returners tend to finish with the most yards. And finally, I like getting players who’ll return both kickoffs and punts. With those principles in mind, you can start patching together a top 15. Josh Cribbs is No. 1 (great returner, handles both kickoffs and punts, and plays for a lesser team). The Jaguars will be a bad team this year and Scotty McGee returns both kickoffs and punts; he’s No. 2. Darren Sproles is a skilled returner and definitely will return both for the Chargers; I’ll go with him as No. 3. I’ll follow him with three other guys who’ll also pull double duty: Preston Parker (Tampa Bay), Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh) and Eric Weems (Atlanta). Javier Arenas (Kansas City) has a very good chance to lead the league in return yards. I am tempted to make him the top guy overall, but Kansas City also has Dexter McCluster – he could be plugged in at some point. Donald Jones appears to be Buffalo’s kickoff returner, so he’ll be up there (C.J. Spiller was awesome on kickoffs at Clemson, but I don’t think they’ll use him in that role – they’ve got Spiller listed as their punt returner but just second team on kickoffs). The Rams will be the league’s worst team, so they’ll probably lead the league in kickoff return yards, but there’s some uncertainty there. Danny Amendola returned both kickoffs and punts last year (and is No. 1 for both on their depth chart), but he’s now starting at wide receiver for them. I expect they’ll relieve him of those duties at some point, with Mardy Gilyard stepping in. So if you draft Amendola, you must back up that pick in the last round with Gilyard. The Lions just picked up Stefan Logan yesterday; I believe they’ll use him on both punts and kickoffs (right now, their officially listed returner is Aaron Brown, but I believe this will change). Percy Harvin is awesome on kickoff returns; let’s stick him in there. And I’ll follow him with some other kickoffs-only guys: Mike Goodson (Carolina) and LaRod Stephens-Howling (Arizona). The Bears will be horrible, so I have interest in their kickoff returner; but they’re listing both Danieal Manning and Johnny Knox as their co-starters. I believe it will usually be Manning; they’re using Devin Hester only on punts. The Broncos have Eddie Royal listed as their No. 1 kickoff and punt returner; I’m not sure if they will hold. The Raiders have Rock Cartwright as their No. 1 kickoff returner right now, but I don’t think that will hold; rookie Jacoby Ford is a lot faster. Brandon Banks (Washington) showed some return potential in the preseason, but right now they don’t have him as their first-team guy for either punts (Phillip Buchanan) or kickoffs (Devin Thomas). The Seahawks will return a lot of kickoffs, but I’m not sure who’ll they use (Deon Butler? Justin Forsett?).
Question 2:
In light of Hardesty's injury, generally how far would you bump up Harrison and Hillis?
DOUG COX [PHOENIX, AZ]
A:
I don’t think it will affect them much. They’re still the top 2 guys. The No. 3 guy just changes from Hardesty to James Davis. Had Hardesty played in the earlier exhibitions, however, I would have ranked him higher than I did. I thought he looked very good against the Rams, consistently picking up extra yards.
Question 3:
I'm in a league where we put 2- or 3- year contracts on players and I have to decide between Johnny Knox and Jabar Gaffney - which WR do you think will be better over a 2-3 year span? I'm not sold on Martz/Cutler's ability to make Knox a decent WR over that span, but I don't know if Gaffney has what it takes to do it either.
ADAM HOLTZ [ROCHESTER, MN]
A:
With those guys, I would look only at 2010. I don’t think Gaffney will be a starter in 2011 – the Broncos will have moved on to the two receivers they selected early in the draft. And I am confident Martz will be a one-and-done in Chicago; they’ll be firing that entire coaching staff, and they’ll be putting in a new offense next year.
Question 4:
My main league uses Team Quarterbacks. The TQB earns .05 points per passing yard, 4 points for a passing TD, 6 pts for a rushing TD, .1 points per rushing yard, and -1 points per INT. I decided to draft the Eagles TQB, figuring I would reap the benefit of any rushing yardage and TDs. Can you run the rankings and points per game for TQBs from #1 thru #32?
Andrew Napoli [SPRINGFIELD, VA]
A:
I don’t have the numbers handy with the rushing yardage included, but for passing only, my top 10 would be (in order): Saints, Colts, Packers, Patriots, Texans, Chargers, Cowboys, Giants, Eagles, Vikings and Bengals.
Question 5:
I'm beginning to think there may be something to John Clayton's assertion that Brett Favre doesn't like Bernard Berrian. I also noticed that you dropped Berrian 10 spots (give or take, depending on scoring format) between Monday's projections and Thursday's. I know it's a fluid situation in Minnesota right now, but I was wondering if you could amplify your thought process and try and articulate a "best guess" scenario.
Brian Grzybowski [RICHMOND, VA]
A:
Berrian made Clayton look good in the exhibition against Seattle. He was a non-factor. He had hardly any balls thrown his way (and Brett Favre completed 16 passes in that game) and let one bounce off his hands for an interception that was returned for a touchdown. He also missed a block on a flanker screen, causing that play to get blown up. He looks awfully skinny as well – he just doesn’t look like a No. 1 receiver. Maybe Berrian can rebound, but I’m nervous about him. I could see him getting outproduced by Greg Camarillo.
Question 6:
Last year, I spent early on Brady and sat at my auction for over two hours without another purchase. When Ray Rice, Benson, Ochocinco, Dallas Clark (as a WR), and Anthony Gonzalez went up for sale, I bought them all below forecast prices. I like to "sit" on guys I perceive as possible great values each year. With that in mind, who are the players you would throw out early knowing they are going for their auction forecast or higher to clear out the cap space of opponents?
Jason Lent [Las Vegas, NV]
A:
At most auctions I’m at, tight ends and quarterbacks tend to go for less than they are worth. So be sure to throw some of those guys out early. (You’ll get a good deal at that position, and you want to limit the number of other players at those positions who also go for under market value).
Question 7:
I've loved your work for years, but your recent PPR rankings have me perplexed. On your Aug. 30 update (PPR) you have your top two ranked QBs slotted at 11 & 12 in the overall rankings. But in your Sept. 2 update you have them slotted at 19 & 23. That's a significant shift, almost one full round in a 10-team league. Why the drastic change? For someone like me who has the 10th pick in a 10-team PPR draft, it makes me now wonder about taking Brees/Rodgers/Manning with either pick 10 or 11. Your updated rankings seem to show you now don't think they're worth taking until roughly around pick 19.
Brian Fulton [NASHVILLE, TN]
A:
This has been a growing problem. Readers want that “one size fits all” list, but every league is different. When you have 8 or 12 teams, that changes the overall list. When you start 2 or 3 wide receivers, that changes the overall. And one must also factor in the behavior of the other owners in the league. If you’re in a league where nobody takes quarterbacks with top 25 picks, there’s no point in selecting Drew Brees with a first-round pick – even if he’s clearly worth it. These are the kind of variables that are bouncing around in my head when I’m trying to put together your overall board – and so you see some variance in the final product depending on what kind of group I’m thinking off when I’m putting together the final product. To get the best possible overall top 50, you want to tell the computer that you’re in a league using auction values (which you can configure in the “scoring profile” section). By answering a few key questions about your league, the system will then put out an overall list that is much closer to what you need. And it’s that section of the website that caused the shuffling in the overall that you mentioned. Many readers are alienated by the concept of using the ‘auction values’ section when they’re not in that kind of a league. “Why should I say I use auction values when we just draft,” is what the typical guy probably thinks. So we changed the programming to put in some default numbers there, giving non-auction guys a customized overall list. But that list wasn’t close enough to the one that was on the pdf, so I was told to go in and change the base-line projection numbers so they closer match what’s actually in my own computer (they had drifted apart over the last month). I had to fuse those two together, which caused a bigger jump than usual in the overall. Confused yet? To get the best overall list possible for your league, go to “Custom Cheat Sheet” and answer the setup questions about your league.
Question 8:
I have been a loyal follower for 10+ years and your rankings have worked wonders for me in the past. (Cedric Benson, most recently) I an having a big problem with Nicks ahead of Steve Smith-CAR and Brandon Marshall, especially when Steve Smith-NY may out play him anyway. Can you explain such a bold prediction?
Dave Huerkamp [DELTA, CO]
A:
They’re all in the same ballpark. I’m a little nervous about Marshall. Maybe it’s nothing, but they just don’t seem to know how to use him. In the preseason, he looked like just another guy. And Carolina’s passing game could struggle. Matt Moore was very good at the end of last year, but he could regress. The Panthers didn’t score an offensive
Question 9:
Post-Draft reflection. Having used custom auction values for several years...reoccuring problem occurred this year. I got great value at RB/WR: Foster, Greene, Portis, Nicks, Wallace, Sims-Walker, Gaffney, Knox. Problem is I run out of roster spots before I run out of $. Had $32($200) left having spent $36 total on E Manning, McNabb, & Stafford. Brees/Rodgers went for $40 each early on, so I basically had $32+$36 for QBs and yet will be starting Eli most weeks. What are your thoughts on just overpaying for one roster spot and then cleverly managing the rest of the draft?
Erick Jones [BIRMINGHAM, AL]
A:
That’s definitely an issue in an auction. You have to make sure you spend your money. I got left holding about $6 in a $200 a few weeks ago, and it’s annoying. I went cheap at both kicker and defense, and with that money, I could have had marquee players at those positions.
Question 10:
I am an avid fan and reader for the past 15 years and have brought many people over to the "light" of Fantasy Index. My question is around Ryan Mathews. I am in 13 leagues this year (trying to make it into a 2nd job lol) and I have seen him go as low as the 3rd round, usually when myself or those "in the know" let him fall that far, or I have taken him as high as 8th overall when I am drafting with people I do not know their tendencies just so I do not miss out on him. What are your thoughts as to whether he is over or under valued? Is it just a question of "knowing your draft mates" and how "good" you assume they are? Is he more valuable in a PPR?
Scott Landis [CHESTERBROOK, PA]
A:
I think Mathews is worth slightly less in a PPR format. I don’t think he’s a great pass catcher, and the Chargers have Darren Sproles (who’s one of the best around in that capacity). I think they’ll use Mathews on a lot of their passing downs. As for where Mathews will go, I would guess it will be the early second round in most fantasy leagues. I think the vast majority of people know about him and have connected the dots, so you won’t see him lasting until the third round.
Question 11:
Yardage league with all TD's at 5 points. Start QB, RB, WR, 3 Flex (Rb/WR), K, D. My auction ($100 cap) took some unusual turns and I ended up with Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger for a combined $8. I have Turner ($34), Portis ($6), Spiller ($6.50), Hightower ($2.50), R. Bush ($4), Tomlinson ($1.50), and LJ ($.50) at RB with Calvin Johnson ($17), Finley ($7.50), and Wallace ($6) at WR. Is the Eli/Ben pairing enough to win with or should I be packaging some of the depth to upgrade?
Jason Lent [Las Vegas, NV]
A:
I think you'll do very well with Manning and Roethlisberger. That's an example of why you need to be careful when spending on quarterbacks. You didn't spend much -- just 8 percent of the cap -- and still look very good at that position.
Question 12:
We had our draft on Monday, and I was fortunate enough to end up with Andre Johnson and Arian Foster, Roddy White and Michael Turner, and Eli Manning and Steve Smith (NY). Or was I? Should I be concerned that all of my offense is centered on these three teams? Should I try to break up some of these pairs?
Scott Kopischke [MENOMONEE FALLS, WI]
A:
I think you’ll be fine. Good players on good offenses. I wouldn’t worry about trying to spread those guys out.
Question 13:
My question relates to your custom "auction" (because it is more detailed) cheat sheet rankings. We have a 14-team league that is a standard serpentine draft format. Everyone has to select 2 QB, 4 RB, 4 WR, 2 TE, 2 K and 2 TEAM DEF. Since I can identify how many of each category will be selected, how many should I select for "being worth more than $1.00"? Also, I didn't see a category for PPR, is there a way to put that in or work around it?
Jeff Carter [FRANKLIN, TN]
A:
To make the scoring system exactly match your own, go to “Scoring Profile”. That’s where you can assign points for receptions. As far as the numbers getting more than $1, my first rough draft would be 15 of 28 quarterbacks, about 40 of 56 for running backs. About 40 of 56 for wide receivers. About 12 of 28 for tight ends. Maybe three kickers, and about six defenses.
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Question 1: Each year someone asks about...
Posted by DAVID DIGREGORIO | Sep. 07 at 12:46 AM
Justin, just wondering if Kolb is still one of your 3 "must have" players in challenge contests?
Question 1: Each year someone asks about...
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Sep. 07 at 04:16 AM
David: I will own Kolb, but I'm not sure that answers your question. My perspective on the mid- to low-salaried QBs is shifting some; for now I'm thinking of owning both Kolb and Stafford and shuffling them. More on this in the second challenges piece I'll run this week - check back Friday.
Question 1: Each year someone asks about...
Posted by JEFF FOSTER | Sep. 07 at 02:10 PM
True, newer qbs get figured out, but with such a strong and run heavy offense, is there really that much to figure out about the panthers pass "attack"? It's not like d-coordinaters are pulling their hair out trying to stop it. Not even with Delhomme, who was only really good one year, and just good or horrible the rest of his carrer...so, how much worse could Moore be than Delhomme anyway?..Its akin to other 2nd year qbs on run-heavy teams in recent years (flacco, ryan, even roethlesberger) who are effective in large part because they are not asked to carry the team, and have simpler reads because d's are keyed on the run...Lastly, i'm not saying i like moore, i dont, just that he cant be that much worse then he already is, so "regression", or exposure, seem to be limited relative to his current effectiveness.
Question 6: Last year, I spent early...
Posted by Matt Tinker | Sep. 07 at 12:48 AM
Maybe I'm not reading his question right Ian, but I don't think you answered his question. Wasn't he asking which guys you think will go for MORE than they are worth so he can toss them out and watch his opponents spend their money early?...
Question 7: I've loved your work for...
Posted by Theodore Erickson | Sep. 06 at 12:15 PM
The custom cheat sheet looks awesome. The first 60 players we auction and the rest we snake so no draft cheat sheet exists for this. Your custom auction is an interesting, unbiased third party that could help me. Thanks.
Question 7: I've loved your work for...
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Sep. 06 at 03:03 PM
Theodore: You actually can use the custom cheat sheet utility for a combo draft/auction. Just tell it that you want to auction off 60 players, with the appropriate dollar values. That will give you the prices for those guys. From that point on, you scratch off the names of those 60 guys and go off the regular list.
Question 8: I have been a loyal...
Posted by JEFF FOSTER | Sep. 06 at 08:03 AM
....but he could regress???????.. based on what, other than anyone can regress? a few years ago, moore played ok for a rookie when delhomme went down. He has since gained experience and learned the offense, and when given the chance last year, he was pretty decent, so i see no reason for a third year qb, with the same players and same offense, with a record of not being horrilble to begin with, to regress. Do you have a specific reason, or gut feeling for that cautionary advice, or r u just filling up space with fluff?..mostly love your service, but i think youre off on this one, just as you were with miami scrapping the wildcat
Question 8: I have been a loyal...
Posted by BILL REHOR | Sep. 06 at 09:25 AM
I can't speak for Ian's reasons, but it's very common for a backup QB to look effective for a limited string of games, only to be "figured out" the following season. Remember Shaun Hill with SF last year? Usually - not always, but usually - there's a reason these guys are backups, and it becomes all too obvious after the league has a fair amount of film on them. Watching Moore last year I certainly didn't see anything other than an adequate backup riding a good running game.
Question 8: I have been a loyal...
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Sep. 06 at 02:14 PM
Jeff: My readers didn't like when I dogged Moore, either, but I think he's a lousy player. I'm not even sure "regress" is the right word. I think he'll be exposed; I think he's not as good a player as Delhomme is; I think the Panthers will use the early bye to go to Clausen, and if that doesn't work it'll cost Fox his job. Bill is exactly right about backups often looking more effective than they actually are. Remember that every day Moore has spent getting ready for 2010 is also a day the league's defensive coordinators have spent (for the first time) thinking of him as the full-season starter - studying tape, breaking him down, licking their chops if I'm right about him. In fact, I'm so worried about Moore that I really don't want the Carolina RBs. I see this as a lost season for Carolina, and that begins with Moore ... well, regressing.
Question 8: I have been a loyal...
Posted by JEFF FOSTER | Sep. 07 at 02:26 PM
pressed the wrong # question, but my resposnse to justin and bill is on the ques. 1 comments
Question 8: I have been a loyal...
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Sep. 07 at 10:37 PM
Jeff: There's at least one difference between Moore and Flacco / Ryan / Roethlisberger: all three are better than he is. I agree that Carolina's passing game isn't much to stop, particularly given the chronic failure to develop a No. 2 wideout, so this probably comes down to whether Moore is better than Delhomme by enough to make any difference in the numbers. I say no. In fact, I say he's worse, and that defenses succeed in baiting him into throwing a bunch of picks trying to force the ball to Steve Smith, and once that happens - whether because he's rattled or because he starts looking to get the ball to other, obviously worse targets - his numbers from previous stints will plummet. Then defenses will tee off on the running game, and the only thing saving the offense will be the talent (granted: it is considerable) of Williams and Stewart. Put it this way: I see little chance of CAR winning in Weeks 3 (vs. CIN) or 4 (at NO). That means they'd better win at least twice in Weeks 1 (at NYG), 2 (vs. TB) and 5 (vs. CHI), or Fox will have to shake things up on that Week 6 bye to try to save his job. If Moore can be passable as a passer, he'd better show it early.
Question 8: I have been a loyal...
Posted by JEFF FOSTER | Sep. 08 at 09:01 AM
justin: I'm in partial agreement, Moore isnt better than Delhomme by enough to make any difference in the numbers. But his downside is limited. Wouldnt you say the last 5 games last year d's tied to bait him? ..a young qb on running team is always baited. D's put 8 in the box and dare him to throw. They also try and bait him with a "run d" look, but Moore was successful anyway...mostly because they work off slants and play-action, a system which almost all nfl qb's can function in..you seem to be saying Moore is going to regress so bad that he wont be able to hit Smith in single coverage off of play-action, and I am sayin' he wont be THAT bad, and couldnt possibly play any worse than Delhomme the last few years. Which brings us to another point u made- that once teams "stymie" Moore, they will t-off on the run....Don't they already do that????!..Even with delhomme last year, do you think d's were all leary of Delhome's prowess?? I say nope, they already t'd off on the run last year with the crappy play of Delhomme, then later with the youth of Moore.I'll call it the "its already been about as bad as it can get" theory, so while the running game munbers may decline, they shouldnt be bad enough to scare people away...and once again, i think Moore is crappy, just not sooo crappy he'll be worse that Delhomme the last few years, and the panthers could still move the ball...who knows, maybe Fox's message is getting old in carolina, and players might mail it in overall, but that aint moore's fault.,,.. and no, I am not Moore's father...and yeah i have stewart in two leauges lol...(but it was early rd 3, so i had to draft him).....
Question 8: I have been a loyal...
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Sep. 08 at 02:16 PM
Jeff: This is about the point I reached with my readers. Carolina's running game declined slightly in yards per carry after Moore took over, but the decline would have been considerably bigger had the Giants and Saints not tanked Weeks 16 and 17. Without those two games the decline was from 4.8 YPC to 4.2 - more than half a yard, and that was with Moore playing well. (Granted, and without Gross. I'm not counting Otah's injury because he only missed three games, two of which were the debacles in the last two weeks.) Now, assume Moore plays worse in 2010 than he did in limited time in 2009. I mean, I call 8 TDs and 2 INTs from THIS player pure luck, which means he has bad luck coming to him. Would it surprise me to see him throw 2 TDs and 8 INTs over the first three weeks in 2010? Not at all. Would the whole offense, including the running game, suffer as a result? I'm pretty sure it would - and I'm on record as counting both Williams and Stewart among the eight best running backs in the league (not counting the rookies yet). If Williams and Stewart are splitting the pie, and Moore makes it a smaller pie ... I just see trouble coming. I know the obvious counter-argument is that he can't play worse than Delhomme did last year, but did you see Delhomme this preseason? He isn't finished. Maybe it's just a lousy system in Carolina, with lousy personnel, now including a QB who is indeed worse than Delhomme. Moore can prove me wrong, or Fox can cast his fate with Clausen. I don't like it either way.
Question 8: I have been a loyal...
Posted by JEFF FOSTER | Sep. 08 at 02:46 PM
Justin: i see you are as stubborn as i am....yes, more than likely moore will not play as well as last year, but i guess you would have to define regression..a dip in play? not to me, a huge dip? not that far to slip to begin with is what i say....whatever the definition, i dont see it effecting (affecting?) the running game, a lot...4.2 ypc is still decent, plus one thing u didnt mention is the injury to d-will, which limited the 1-2 punch and freshness of the backs...if half your stud backfield is hurt, then of course ypc will decline..also, Delhomme's play NOW has no bearing on last year or future play of any carolina qb, like u said maybe the system is flawed. If so its been the same one for years, so if anything maybe d's are figuring out the caolina system, not just the qb. Lastly, we have probably set the all-time record for debate in the comment section, over one of the most insignificant players..but it was fun..good luck this season, unless u are playing me, then i hope all your players break thier legs in wk 1..
Question 8: I have been a loyal...
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Sep. 08 at 11:27 PM
Jeff: Good luck to you (and your players) as well. It's a lot more fun to see what happens than to make predictions anyway - whether you're right or I am.