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Posted Aug. 10 at 04:31 AM

Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.



Question 1:

Your evaluation of different draft positions was very insightful. I am curious, however, if the value of the postions change if there is an even or odd number of rounds. If they are odd, my theory is that the teams picking later get a disadvantage as they begin and end the draft picking late in the round. Thanks.


Michael Lyman [SUMMIT, NJ]

A:

If I gave you the option of having the No. 1 pick in the first round, but only with the penalty of having to pick last in the 10th round, what would you do? You’d take that No. 1 overall pick, because guys selected in the first round are more important and more productive than players selected in the 10th round.

The same logic applies to a snake draft. The first round is more important than the second round. The third round is more important than the fourth round. The fifth round is more important than the sixth round. And so on. The guys who select earliest in the odd-numbered rounds are always a round ahead. (And they even finish a round ahead in a draft with an odd number of rounds).

Logically, then, it makes sense to always want to prefer to pick as high as you can in the odd-numbered rounds. The only exception would be if you could look at the available talent in a particular year and see some short of plateau or statistical dropoff that created an advantage to selecting earlier in an even-numbered round.

But really, an auction is the way to go. It levels the field for everyone.


Question 2:

I wanted to ask you a question about your personal strategy in an auction. Lets say that a player is nominated that you do not want or need on your team. Do you still bid the player up so that he goes for what you perceive as market value or do you sit back, relax, and let someone else do the bidding?


Christopher Cwik [CHICAGO, IL]

A:

You can't go into an auction with a "want" or "don't want" mentality. There has to be a gray area. I don't, for example, particularly like Tony Gonzalez. He's an older guy, and he's on a team that's headed in the wrong direction -- poor offensive line and perhaps a first-year starter at quarterback. He's not a guy I'd ever get into a bidding war over. But would I take him for the $1 minimum? Heck yeah. Would I take him for $2? Yes. Would I take him for $3? Maybe. Would I buy him for $6? No way. So with these kind of guys, you can't really say you're just going to sit out the bidding on them. What the market dictates will determine whether or not they wind up on your team.


Question 3:

Hi, is there any chance that fantasy index could put their player rankings in tiers. They are really nice on draft day. Thanks.


KEVIN RIGGLEMAN [WILMINGTON, NC]

A:

We hear this one a couple of times each summer. I don't, however, see any practical way we could implement a tier system. There's a dropoff below every player on the entire draft board. How much of a dropoff does there have to be before it would trigger a "tier"? How many tiers would there be on any given draft board? And keep in mind that we're dealing with scores of various league sizes and scoring systems. Best I can offer you is that we put out a stat projection file with our rankings. It says exactly how many yards and touchdowns we expect each player to produce. You could consult that to look for your tiers, then write them on their with a highlighter or something. Sorry I can't give you more help than that, but realistically, I think that's the best I can do in regards to this issue.


Question 4:

Hi Ian, I picked 10th last year in a ten team league and won our regular season. I think a big reason was my pick of the Bears D in round 5. Do you see them being as strong this year to warrant such an early pick? Additionally, if I missed out on them do you think the Ravens is worth a high pick or at that point do you go with a lesser D in a later round? Thanks, John


JOHN WILKINSON [CHARLOTTE, NC]

A:

The Bears still have Devin Hester. He's going to return some kicks for touchdowns. That's a big bonus. They've managed to resolve the Lance Briggs issue, and they're still in the NFC North, where the other three teams should cough up lots of sacks, interceptions and fumbles. So I think the Bears will help fantasy teams again this year. I see the Ravens as more similar to the other top defenses -- San Diego, New England, Dallas.


Question 5:

Last year I was in a league that did not have a maximum number of players per position. So, at one point towards the end of the season I had 9 RBs on my roster. Well it made some teams upset and they have changed it this year to only 4 RBs per roster. We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/TE, 1 K, 1 DEF/ST. We have 16 total roster spots. I have tried to explain to them that 4 RBs is simply not enough and while I would like there to be a maximum of at least 6, I would compromise with 5. I think this is a big issue and am considering backing out of the league. Am I overreacting? If not, could you help me explain to them why 4 is not enough?


Joe Zinda [Houston]

A:

I like flexible rosters. Let each owner decide how many of each position to carry -- just like NFL teams do. If you've got a quarterback like Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer, perhaps you decide to not even carry a backup quarterback after your bye week. That's all part of the strategy.


Question 6:

Hey Ian- I've found your responses to "what's the best draft position in a 10/12 team league?" pretty interesting. Care to share your analysis of a 16-team TD only league, where rounds 1&2 are snaked, then every ensuing round is #16 picking first and #1 picking last?

Thanks


Matt Tinker [ORLEANS, VT]

A:

It looks like the two most favorable positions to draft from would be No. 1 and No. 2, then not much difference between the rest. The following list shows the projected bang-for-your-buck production through the first five rounds of the draft. With the teams continuing to draft first in the later rounds, some of those teams would continue to sneak up a spot or two:

Team 1: 324, Team 2: 271, Team 16: 251, Team 8: 250, Team 9: 250, Team 10: 248, Team 7: 246, Team 12: 246, Team 3: 245, Team 11: 245, Team 14: 244, Team 15: 244, Team 4: 243, Team 6: 242, Team 5: 242, Team 13: 242.


Question 7:

I am in a PPR keeper league and can keep 2 of the following players, Brian Westbrook, Maurice Jones-Drew and Brandon Jacobs. I was going to keep Westbrook and Drew but I recently read a post about Jacobs training with Tiki Barber's/Larry Johnson's strength trainer. It said Jacobs is running a 4.44 forty, leg pressing 900 lbs 10 times, and squatting 670 lbs 5 times. I wasn't going to keep him because of durability concerns but I don't see someone that strong getting hurt. Do you think that Jacobs can be a 300 carry, 15+ touchdowns back? Should I keep Jacobs or Drew?


Frank Fallon [Edison, N.J.]

A:

Jacobs is running a 4.44? I take it you read that in the fiction section. We are talking about Brandon Jacobs, right? The 265-pound guy who plays for the Giants?


Question 8:

Last Year, based largely on FFI recommendations, I took Eddie Kennison in the 6th and Troy Williamson in the 8th round and felt like I had steals with both picks. FFI had Kennison as the #17 overall WR and Williamson was ranked highly, in addition, he won the #1 WR spot by default because of Koren Robinson. Both those guys burned me bad, and probably cost me a playoff spot (the rest of my roster included Marvin Harrison, Steven Jackson, Chad Johnson, Laurence Maroney, Reggie Bush). My question is, why should I trust FFI rankings this year that have two aging veterans at WR in the top 20 - Joey Galloway and Hines Ward? In fact, Joey Galloway is in almost an identical situation - aging, injury-prone QB throwing to 35 year old WR - as Kennison was last year.


Jered Ottenwess [Newberry, FL]

A:

I'm not promising that Galloway or Ward is going to the Pro Bowl. They're both older guys. If everything goes right for Galloway -- he stays healthy and the team gets adequate quarterback play -- he could be a top-10 receiver. Ward is currently the No. 24 receiver on my list; I'm concerned about the number of multiple-receiver sets that team will use. If you draft these guys in the sixth round, I don't think you should walk out of your draft saying, "I'm going to kick everyone's ass at wide receiver this year." Just as it didn't make sense for you to count to heavily last year on Williamson, who was only the No. 35 wide receiver on our board. Note: You're being kind of harsh, aren't you, in labeling Jeff Garcia an injury-prone quarterback? This guy has started over 90 games in the NFL and has had I think two injuries. I don't think that's enough to get him in the "injury prone" class.


Question 9:

I'm in a 10 team league. We start 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 3 WR/TEs a kicker and a D/ST. We do not use PPR and all TDs including passing are worth 6 pts. How would this affect your draft strategy as far as get your RBs first and you can wait on QBs. Should I let the comp do this and snatch up to top QBs? BTW your mag is so good it may backfire because I don't tell anyone which on I buy!


Scott Bissell [Des Moines, WA]

A:

Thanks for the nice words. If you look back into previous mailbags, you'll see some adjusted top 30 overalls for systems with double quarterbacks. Basically, it brings them up onto equal footing with the tailbacks. You'll definitely want to get out of your draft with a pair of quarterbacks that you can count on.


Question 10:

I trust you opinion and am looking for some adjudication. I'm in (or more accurately was in) a 10-team yardage league in which teams can keep up to 2 players. Before our draft, Team #1 traded Frank Gore and the #31 & #72 picks to Team #2 for the #24 & #65 picks. I felt this was so lopsided I protested to the point of quitting the league in the ensuing fallout. MY QUESTION - is this trade as lopsided as I believe it is, or did I overreact?


PAUL KONCZAL [SAINT JOSEPH, MI]

A:

There's something missing in this deal, right? Like the second-round pick in a keeper league or something? Some folks are concerned about Frank Gore's durability, but I expect he'll be selected in the top 10 of virtually every draft this summer. It would be ridiculous to trade him away for the chance to move up seven spots in later rounds.


Readers' Comments

Question 4: Hi Ian, I picked 10th...

Posted by David Allen | Aug. 14 at 03:23 AM

In a TD only league that scores double points (12) for Int/fumble and kick returns over 50 yards, would the Bears "D" be recommended as a 4th or 5th round pick? Comments???

Question 7: I am in a PPR...

Posted by Frank Fallon | Aug. 10 at 04:59 AM

This is from the 3rd page in the Newark Star Ledger July 26,2007 http://www.nj.com/starledger/stories/index.ssf?/base/sports-1/118542403988410.xml&coll=1 "Jacobs is strong enough to lift 670 pounds on a squat machine and almost half a ton on a leg press for more than five reps, according to Carini. And thanks to a weight sled onto which Carini would load 90 pounds before strapping it to Jacobs, the NFL's biggest No. 1 back is almost as speedy as most of his counterparts. Three years after his 40-yard dash was timed in the mid-4.5 second range, Jacobs is now running in the mid-4.4s." So Ian can you help me out I'm on the clock. My draft is this weekend.

Question 7: I am in a PPR...

Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Aug. 10 at 08:13 AM

Frank - My two cents (in case Ian doesn't see this) - strong guys get hurt in the NFL all the time. And, I guarantee Ian would still recommend you keep Jones-Drew over Jacobs. So would almost anyone else I can think off the top of my head.

Question 7: I am in a PPR...

Posted by James Wimmers | Aug. 10 at 02:50 PM

I hope all the experts continue to underrate Brandon Jacobs. He'll be my 2007 version of Larry Johnson in 2005, whom I was able to steal in 7 of my 8 leagues.

Question 7: I am in a PPR...

Posted by IAN ALLAN | Aug. 10 at 03:18 PM

I'm not disputing that a newspaper claimed that Jacobs can run a 4.45 (or, perhaps more accurately, that he or coach claims he can run a 4.45). But Jacobs can't run under 4.5. I was in the University of Washington football planning room about 15-20 years ago, and they had a big board where they had the 40 times for all the players listed. They had an ordinary corner listed as running a 4.2. Again, looks great. Great for the player's confidence, I suppose. But that doesn't mean the guy can actually run a 4.2.

Question 8: Last Year, based largely on...

Posted by Joe DeBellis | Aug. 11 at 12:22 PM

how do you miss the playoffs with that roster? and how many WR's do you start that despite having Marv and 85, those other 2 scrub WR's held you back? With the core you had, any other points you got should have been bonus.

Question 8: Last Year, based largely on...

Posted by Jered Ottenwess | Aug. 15 at 01:03 AM

My league starts 3 WR plus a WR/RB flex position. Half the teams probably start 4 WR each week. I was fortunate to get 85 in a trade, straight up for Jamal Lewis. And if you remember, ol' ocho-cinco wasn't doing so hot about 4 games in. AND, Reggie Bush didn't come on until late. AND I had Hasselbeck who was in the shop for ~4 weeks. I ended up missing the playoffs by 1 game and the guy who I needed to win intentionally tanked because of a personal grudge. long story.

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