Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 17 at 04:18 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
Hey Ian,
As always, your info is the best. You've metioned a few times, that you're hoping to have a program that will allow the update subscribers (yes, I'm one) to plug in their league scoring rules, and it will give updated auction values. This would be tremendous and save me tons of time. My auction is on Sept. 4. What are the chances you guys are going to get this done? If not, I have to start using your excel info to put together values...
Thanks,
Andy Jury
Andy Jury [MESA, AZ]
A:
Sorry, I don't think we'll have that working for this year. We've got a lot of technical software stuff that's also being worked on.
Question 2:
I am in a league that permits trading of draft picks (how sick are we?). With LT scoring about 100 more points than the #2 pick, does it make any sense to trade a first- and a third-round pick for the #1 pick? A first- and a second-?
MICHAEL HAMER [Springfield, Pa.]
A:
On my draft board, I’m projecting Tomlinson to score 50 more points than Steven Jackson (in a league based on 6 points for TDs and 1 point for every 10 run/rec yards). So for me to trade down, I would need to receive in return both Jackson and a player who would provide 50 “bang-for-the-buck” points. That is, 50 points MORE than one of the usual bums that I could grab in about round 10. In my case, that would mean player No. 36 on my board – Tony Romo. So if the trade offer was Tomlinson and the last pick of the draft for Jackson and Romo, I would see that as an even trade. Probably, at spot No. 36, I’d be able to get a player slightly better than Romo (the worst-case scenario) and I’d come out slightly ahead. Seeing as I was parting with Tomlinson, however, I’d want to get a bigger bounty in return. I’d be shooting for a late second-round pick in a return. And if I couldn’t get that, I’d probably be willing to do a deal for pick No. 30.
Question 3:
We use individual kick and punt returners in our league. The only thing that scores are TD's. Can you give me a short list of the best for this year?
JOHN STOUT [CLARKSBURG, WV]
A:
My top 15 is shown below. The number shows the expected frequency (with Devin Hester at No. 1, averaging a kick-return touchdown for every five games). The guys flagged with asterisks project to be used on both kickoffs and punts.
5 CHI *Devin Hester
12 MIA *Ted Ginn
12 STL *Dante Hall
14 OAK *Chris Carr
14 NYJ Justin Miller
14 BUF Roscoe Parrish
15 NO *Lance Miller
15 BAL *B.J. Sams
15 PHI *Jeremy Bloom
16 HOU Jacoby Jones
16 ATL *Allen Rossum
18 BUF Terrence McGee
18 SD *Darren Sproles
19 CLE *Josh Cribbs
20 WAS Antwaan Randle El
There are some other guys, of course, who could work their way onto the list. Wes Welker should return a touchdown if the Patriots use him on punt returns. Right now, however, I don’t think they will. Houston’s Jerome Mathis is potentially terrific, but I think the Texans are instead going to use Jones. Jones had a nice punt return early in their preseason opener. Eddie Drummond has been an elite kick returner in the past; I don’t know, however, that he’s going to get back to full health. I’m not even sure the Lions are going to keep him. Santonio Holmes and Craig Davis have some ability; but I’m not certain they’ll be used consistently. In Carolina, Ryne Robinson might wind up returning both punts and kickoffs, but I don’t want to recommend him until I’m sure he’ll be used in those roles.
Question 4:
In a TD-only scoring league that rewards double points for players (int/fumble/punt/kick returns too) over 50 yards (12 points), do you see Chicago defense being a pick in rounds 5-6?
David Allen [Lincoln, Neb.]
A:
I like that idea. In TD-only leagues with that doubling rule (and I’ve been in one of those leagues for over 20 years), that 50-plus touchdowns are huge. Usually, when you get a 50-yard touchdown, you win your game that week. In the Bears, you gain access to maybe the best return threat ever in Devin Hester. With him back there, I think the Bears have an excellent chance to return three kicks for touchdowns (and that may be a conservative estimate). You should get 2-4 more of those 50-yard back-breaking plays than any other defense in your league. So I’ll sign off on selecting the Bears in that range, rather than a wide receiver who’s going to score 6-7 TDs, almost all from under 50 yards.
Question 5:
I'm lower on Larry Johnson than most, but not just because of the well-known issues. (O-line, holdout, etc..) The Chiefs in their playoff debacle against Indianapolis were ridiculously predictable on offense. Do you look at that as just Herm Edwards and his staff being out-coached in that game, or do you see a concerning trend dating back to his days in New York? Curtis Martin did well enough for Edwards, but LJ owners will be disappointed if he only puts up Martin-like numbers this season. I'm just concerned Herm's thumbprint is firmly on this team now, and that may not be good for fantasy teams carrying Kansas City players.
DALE GANDER [SUN PRAIRIE, WI]
A:
I'm not so much worried about Herman Edwards. He's not shy about giving the ball to his featured runner. Larry Johnson set the all-time carries record last year, and Curtis Martin as a 31-year-old with the Jets ran for a league-high 1,697 yards on a league-high 371 carries, with 14 TDs. Edwards is fine. But I do see Kansas City as a team in decline. Poor offensive line. Poor quarterbacking. And that will make things tough for Johnson.
Question 6:
It looks like the "which are the best/worst draft positions" questions are very popular. I've seen you address 8, 10, 12, & 16 team leagues. Am I the only that plays in a 14 team league (performance scoring, serpentine draft)? I'm assuming the earlier draft positions would be more valuable since the talent pool will be depleted quicker? Maybe that's something that could be put in the e-mail updates 1 week annually.
Corey Gaulrapp [ABERDEEN, SD]
A:
The results are similar to what we saw in the other league sizes, with the teams holding the early draft picks holding an edge in projected production through the first four rounds of the drafts. According to my numbers, the bulk of the teams will have only about 80 percent as many projected "bang-for-your-buck" points as the first team after four rounds.
100% Team 1
85% Team 2
82% Team 3
81% Team 4
80% Team 5
79% Team 8
78% Team 7
78% Team 6
78% Team 9
75% Team 11
75% Team 10
75% Team 12
73% Team 13
72% Team 14
Question 7:
Hi Ian: my question centers around quarterbacks who will breakout this year. Last year Jon Kitna and Tony Romo came out of nowhere to post big numbers. My two sleepers this year are Alex Smith and J P Losman. I would like to hear your thoughts.
JOHN SHELBROCK [FRANKENMUTH, MI]
A:
To be that Romo-Kitna "sleeper" guy, a player has to be a top-10 quarterback. Averaging 220 passing yards per game and throwing 20 TDs isn't enough. I'm looking for a guy who'll rise up to within spitting distance of the likes of Drew Brees and Tom Brady. I don't see Smith or Losman as that type of quarterback. If I'm drafting either one of them, it's with the hope that they'll be top-15 guys.
Question 8:
I can choose a draft slot anywhere from 6th to 16th in a 16 team basic league. After the 1st round, all ensuing rounds are bottom-to-top (i.e. 16th-1st). Am I crazy to think that the RB I could get at perhaps #12 would be just as good as the one available to me at #6? And if so, then considering all ensuing rounds the #12 slot is picking 6 picks earlier than #6, wouldn't I take the 12th slot?
I would say it is a dead cinch that 4 RBs and PManning will go 1-5. Now while Addai, Gore, and Bush (guys likely to go in the #6 range) may be the sexier names, are they really that much better than more mundane names like Parker, Rudi, Westbrook, and Henry (guys likely to still be there around #12)? I'd hate to outsmart myself by moving down to #12, then see Addai go at #6 and see him explode for 14-15 TDs ... Waddayathink?
Matt Tinker [Orleans, Vermont]
A:
I like the gamble. I think there’s a good chance you’ll get a player at No. 12 that you had ranked in your top 8. And there’s a substantial value to picking six slots earlier in rounds 2, 3, 4 and 5.
Question 9:
Ian, I'm in an eight team yardage league that keeps one player per year. I've been keeping Shaun Alexander the past few seasons, but thought I'd finally switch horses after the year Frank Gore had. Then Gore broke his hand and now I'm second guessing myself. From all accounts he should be ready come the regular season, but do you see this as an aberration or being "injury prone"?
Eric Schmit [KEIZER, OR]
A:
I'd go with Gore over Alexander. Younger guy. And maybe just better as well.
Question 10:
I have Portis, McGahee, and Maroney. Because of injuries and part-time status last year, I would normally be able to keep them all. That was my plan, but we lost a few teams last year. To offer incentive to get the league back to 16 teams, we are offering an expansion draft so new teams don't feel so disadvantaged in competing with established teams. Problem is I can only protect two from expansion teams. Which two do you think?
Ron Uetz (I know you're reading this Fillmore Blues!) [Lyndhurst, N.J.]
A:
Maroney definitely is No. 1. He’s younger than those guys, and probably better as well. With Portis having more wear on his tires, battling knee problems and perhaps sharing time fairly significantly with Ladell Betts, I definitely would make McGahee the other keeper. I’m not a big McGahee fan; I just think he’s the safer choice.
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Question 1: Hey Ian, As always, your...
Posted by Anthony Belarde | Aug. 19 at 05:25 AM
I am in a keeper league with standard scoring. I have to choose between Rudy and Westbrook. Which way should I go? I will not know my position in the draft until just a few minutes before hand.
Question 2: I am in a league...
Posted by Robert Hoekstra | Aug. 20 at 12:41 PM
It would help a lot to know more about this guy's league format. Does he have the #2 pick (seems to imply it but not clearly)? Then, how many teams, 12 maybe? If he has made no draft pick trades so far, then he can offer the #2 and #26 pick. I would have a tough time giving up the #26 pick. You can still get a stud WR at that spot, but the #47 pick is not enough. Maybe #2 and #26 for #1 and #48 might work...
Question 7: Hi Ian: my question centers...
Posted by Jered Ottenwess | Aug. 19 at 11:58 PM
I like Rivers as that 'Kitna-Romo type sleeper.' Especially if teams focus heavily on LT, which seems inevitable, Rivers, in my opinion, has a terrific shot at 250 yds/gm and 25+ TD's.
Question 7: Hi Ian: my question centers...
Posted by Daniel Burks | Aug. 20 at 02:08 AM
I was wondering how much a team's defense and how it affects the offense in terms of TOP and total plays reflects in your offensive player rankings? Does a good defense translate to a shorter field with more opportunities to score? Does a bad defense just give the offense the opportunity to gain more yardage? Is it a wash? Baltimore led the league in time of possession. Does that give added value to a McGahee, McNair, etc.?