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I'm shocked to hear how many writers and analysts are talking as if it's practically a foregone conclusion that Vick will return to the NFL after sitting out two or three years. As if these problems are on par with Michael Irvin or Bam Morris getting caught with some pot. I don't think we're going to see him again.

What team is going to take a chance on this guy? He hasn't even come clean on exactly what he did. His co-defendants have signed deals saying that Vick participated in killing eight dogs in April. But Vick has supposedly been involved dogfighting for over 5 years -- at least. This guy might have killed hundreds of dogs, and done so by hanging and drowning (rather than by more humane methods). He's a monster. It will be tough for Roger Goodell to ever let him back in the league, and even more surprising if a team takes on that baggage.

The day that a team signs him, it might lose or alienate 10-20 percent of its fan base. Is he good enough to merit that? Is he going to help a team win? I don't think so. He's never been much of a passer -- he doesn't read coverages very well -- and as he gets older, he's going to continue to lose speed. And there's also the additional risk that he's got another off-field incident in him. This is Ron Mexico we're talking about. Flipping off his home crowd. Showing up at an airport with a water bottle with a hidden compartment. I don't think any team would touch him.

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For the overall rankings, I've been basing the rankings on a 12ish team league. I've built them around the assumption that you could get the No. 17 quarterback (Jake Delhomme) relatively cheaply. That is, in an auction, you'd have a chance to get Delhomme or another quarterback close to him for the $1 minimum. And I've made similar assumptions at the other positions. When you change the scoring to reflect 6 points per TD pass, I think you'd still be able to get Delhomme for about $1.00 in an auction league (or in a late round in a regular draft). With that in mind, the scoring change has no impact on the first 20-21 TDs that guys are going to throw. Those stats are essentially free. It's beyond that point that guys get an extra 2 points per TD pass. So for a player like Tom Brady, who should throw 30-31 TDs, he gets an extra 20 points of measurable production -- equal to about 3 TDs for a RB or WR.

So how does that affect the overall board? In my opinion, Manning, Brady, Brees, Palmer and Romo climb up from 8, 16, 19, 29 and 32 to 4, 10, 13, 21 and 26. Brees and Brady, by the way, flipflop in the rankings (since Brady isn't as strong as Brees in yards but should finish with more TD passes).

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I like the theory. Somebody's got to catch those touchdowns. Houshmandzadeh is solid in the red zone. He's going to get plenty of looks. (I think I'm higher than everybody on Houshmandzadeh, because he keeps winding up on all of my teams in mock drafts). Tab Perry could be a solid No. 3 receiver. But I think Chad Johnson has to pick up some of that scoring slack. Can we put him down for 9 TDs? Is that fair?

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In that type of a format, I think you'll do best if you just consider running backs and wide receivers to be one position. And if you make that assumption, I think you'll tend to select wide receivers in rounds 3 through 7. According to my numbers, there are 10 running backs who will outproduce all of the wide receivers. But after that point, 22 of the next 40 players in this category would be wide receivers. So I'd just go with overall value and assume you'll be starting three wides most games.

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Those are all solid options. But don't forget about Reggie Bush. Bush probably will lead all running backs in receptions, catching 80-plus balls. Should be much more productive as a runner and scorer this year as well.

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Good point. On my draft board and in my projections, I haven't downgraded Smith at all to account for the possibility that Delhomme gets hurt or benched. And I think it's fair to say that Smith would be less productive with David Carr at quarterback. Delhomme (at least when he's on his game) is a better quarterback than Carr, and more importantly definitely has a tendency to hone in on his No. 1 receiver. We've seen that in recent years with Smith, and we saw it earlier with Muhsin Muhammad.

If Carr takes over at quarterback, I think you'll see Smith average about 15 fewer receiving yards per game. His scoring might drop by 20-30 percent. If we assume/project right now that Carr is going to be the quarterback for 3 of the 16 games, then it would be reasonable to move down Smith by about 50 yards and half of a touchdown. But I think his current overall estimate (10.6 TDs) might be a little low already, and I haven't made the similar statistical adjustments for the other top wide receivers, and many of them would be less productive with backup quarterbacks as well.

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If you keep the pick, you'll take Joseph Addai. If you trade down to No. 4, you'll instead get Steve Smith or Reggie Bush. You're giving up about 15 points there, plus Addai might play his way into being your keeper next year. Maybe Jackson gets hurt or whatever. In the second round, if you stay put at 2.10, I believe you'll be selecting a wide receiver -- Harrison, Wayne, Holt. It will depends who's there. If you move up to 2.07, you'll probably wind up taking the same player. So tell your friend that Ian says the pot needs to be sweetened if a deal is going to occur.

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Grossman can be amazingly inept at times. He reminded us all of that last night. But I think he's going to be pretty good this year. He's got a great cast around him, and he's now got another year of experience. I think he'll win games and put up pretty good numbers. I'd take him about 20 quarterbacks into drafts, feeling I'd gotten a quarterback who should be a top-10 guy on some Sundays.

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I talked about that in the magazine. I think Boller might be better than Steve McNair. The Ravens, however, don't seem to have any interest in him. Boller is going to be a free agent at the end of the year, and the team has shown zero interest in signing him to a new deal. They also drafted Troy Smith. McNair will be the quarterback there, I think it's safe to say, until he gets hurt. (Which, of course, might not take long -- then Boller could get one final chance to win his way back into the team's good graces.)

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I'm not a Bush fan. I think he could be just an ordinary back who put up big numbers in a tailback-friendly scheme at Louisville. Eric Shelton is even bigger and faster than Bush and scored a lot of touchdowns in that system. What has he done for Carolina? I have very little interest in Bush, even in a dynasty format. I think the Raiders will sign or draft another running back to be their starter for the 2008 season. As for Irons, I think he would have been a change-of-pace back for the Bengals, getting maybe 10 percent of the workload. He also has only limited dynasty value, at least in my opinion.

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Earlier, someone talked about giving 6 points for touchdowns. That's nice. But the real way to increase the value of quarterbacks is to start more of them. That's sure to increase the demand for them. I agree with your theory that Manning should be the No. 2 player on the board. According to my numbers, in fact, 19 of the first 45 players selected will be quarterbacks, including 5 of the top 8. Overall board should look something like this ...

Tomlinson, P.Manning, Brees, Brady, S.Jackson, Palmer, Gore, Romo, L.Johnson, Bush, Addai, Westbrook, Bulger, S.Smith, Kitna, Holt, Alexander, Henry, McNabb, Hasselbeck, Harrison, Owens, Young, Roethlisberger, Wayne, Houshmandzadeh, Cutler, C.Johnson, R.Johnson, Parker

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