Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Sep. 14 at 04:02 PM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I'm real worried about Larry Johnson. I don't like the line, the QB or the schedule. What do you think ?
JOHN MARINO [HANCOCK, NY]
A:
We're all concerned about Johnson. Certainly, he's not going to put up the kind of numbers that we've seen him compile the last two years. When it comes down to actually moving him down on your draft board, however, that's not as easy to do. Kansas City probably still will finish above-average in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, and he's their workhorse back. He'll account for 80-plus percent of that team's rushing yards, and he might score 90 percent of the team's rushing touchdowns. Plus he'll probably catch 50-60 balls (he caught 7 passes in the team's opener). If you agree to those stipulations, then Johnson is probably still a top 3 running back on your board.
Is it safe, though, to assume that Kansas City will finish at least average in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns? I think it is. Herman Edwards has a strong track record with running games (Curtis Martin won a rushing title with him a few years back). And Kansas City's offensive line, despite the criticisms, is very similar to the group that helped Johnson run for 1,789 yards last year. They lost Will Shields; no arguing that his retirement didn't hurt. But they're probably a little better at both tackle spots. They opened last year, recall, with Kyle Turley and Jordan Black at tackle. Black was so iffy the team didn't re-sign him. Turley was coming back after being out of the league and weighed something like 285 pounds -- probably the lightest offensive tackle in the league. And don't start in on me about Willie Roaf -- sure, Kansas City would love to have him, but that guy retired before last season even started.
I think Johnson will be OK. If he can stay healthy (which is always a question mark with his high-contact running style) I imagine he'll finish with something like 1,900 or 2,000 combined yards. He's not going to be a 20-TD scorer, but I think he's got a chance at 14 or 15. And that type of production would make Johnson a solid addition to any fantasy franchise. If there's a non-Tomlinson back who is clearly better than Johnson, I don't know who it is. Addai should be great, but he couldn't stay healthy at LSU -- can he carry the load? Westbrook gets hurt every year. Henry will be very good, but he's not going to catch many passes. Alexander will score plenty of touchdowns, but he doesn't catch many passes and is starting to look old. And Steven Jackson is almost a clone of Johnson -- he's got the same offensive line problems and durability concerns. And Jackson isn't going to be used as much as a pass catcher this season as he was last year.
Question 2:
Deion Branch or HasselFraud? What happened to Branch this weekend? Now I know you have blindly supported Matt "I'm Over-Rated" Hasselbeck for YEARS now, but can you defend this guy's play? Did you see how badly he underthrew Engram on that 49 yard pass during the 2nd quarter. Engram made a great play to come back and make that catch, but you have to question Hasselfraud's arm strength. I'm sure Branch watched highlights of Moss running wild against the Jets last night and wished he still played with a real QB like Tom Brady!
THOMAS WRIGHT [CUYAHOGA FLS, OH]
A:
My son's soccer team, the KING COBRAS, is playing its home games on a field right in front of Hasselbeck's house/mansion this year, so you won't catch me criticizing him in print anymore. I don't want him coming out and kicking my ass on Saturday morning. But just between you and me, I thought his arm strength looked a little spotty on opening day as well. Not only on the long ball to Engram (which would have been a TD if properly thrown) but also on the 34-yard touchdown to Maurice Morris. Chad Pennington has a weaker arm than Hasselbeck; I'm not sure there are any other starters that Hasselbeck could beat in arm strength. I still like him, though; short passing is the key to that offense. I think Hasselbeck probably will be a top-10 quarterback.
As for Branch, I think he'll be fine. He didn't catch any passes on opening day, but they'll get him involved. The Bucs did a nice job against him. And Branch came close to scoring a few times against Tampa Bay. They threw two balls to him when they were inside the 10; he was open on one of those, but it got batted down at the line of scrimmage. I believe Branch will be a top 20 receiver -- probably top 15.
Question 3:
I've received two requests this week from people trying to pry Jason Witten away from me. They both were offering a #3 WR (we start 3). Maybe I'm missing something but is he this valuable? Starting 3 recievers means the talent get pretty thin, pretty fast....and there seem to be decent tight ends just loitering on the waiver wire. Is the thought that Witten might go up into Gates territory this year?
Brian Grzybowski [RICHMOND, VA]
A:
I would trade Witten. I think he's a solid tight end -- a top-10 guy. But that's the easiest position to fill in fantasy football (because you start only one of those guys, versus three wide receivers). Witten caught 6 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown on Sunday night, but I believe that in a few weeks, we'll all look back and attribute those numbers to a matchup situation against the Giants. On Sunday, Witten will face a Miami defense that last week held Chris Cooley to 1 catch for 10 yards. I'll bet that you'll see Witten catch about 3 balls for 32 yards, and then that trade offer will be pulled from the table. If you can get a top-20 receiver for Witten, I suggest you go after that deal.
Question 4:
As a Travis Henry owner, would you advise dropping Chester Taylor and picking up Selvin Young? My second RB is Cedric Benson, followed by Jamal Lewis and newly acquired Chris Brown.
JOHN THOMAS [Cleveland]
A:
If I were in your shoes, I'd go with Young. Taylor is higher on my draft board, but Young fits better with what you're doing. Taylor isn't going to play any games for you -- not with Benson, Lewis and Brown on that roster. But if Henry gets hurt, Young would become a starter for you.
Question 5:
Hi Ian. I realize it's only the first week, and there's plenty of football left to be played, but I wanted to address your ranking of Lee Evans.
After he did nothing in the opener, I'm concerned that he will be a boom-or-bust player who hits it big some weeks and falls flat in others while ending up with 7-8 TDs. That wouldn't be bad, but I was expecting more.
In the last preseason update, you wrote that Evans might outproduce WRs drafted ahead of him, such as Terrell Owens and Reggie Wayne. Those two look like they will be consistent scorers on division-winners, and it's hard to imagine Evans being able to match their stats while playing catch with the immortal JP Losman on what could be a last-place team.
Again, I know there's plenty of time for Evans to rebound and I may regret even sending this e-mail in a few weeks, but should those of us who drafted Evans be thinking of a Plan B?
Paul Owers [RIVIERA BEACH, FL]
A:
Evans will be fine. He just ran up against Champ Bailey on Sunday. Bailey will shut down a lot of good receivers. And even with Bailey on him, Evans nearly came up with 35- and 62-yard touchdowns on opening day. He'll be a top-10 receiver. If you don't want him, trade him to me; I'll check with my commissioner and see if you'll approve a cross-league trade. With his speed, Evans may lead the league in 50-plus yard touchdowns. He'll definitely finish this season with more catches, yards and touchdowns than Randy Moss. As for Owens and Wayne, those are also very good wide receivers.
Question 6:
What's the best way to compare RB vs. WR? For example;
A 15th ranked RB would typically equal a ____ ranked WR ?
Or; Divide the RB rank by .?? to get the equivalent WR ranking. Any way to come up with a ballpark cross reference?
Ray Phillips [Cornelius, NC]
A:
We do exact stat projections for every player every week. And with a good chunk of guys using those "flex" positions in their leagues, we'll post those numbers this year. So you'll be able to go in and see that we've set the over-under for our No. 15 running back (Ronnie Brown) this week at 74 rushing yards, 25 receiving yards and 59% chance of a touchdown. That makes him better, at least this week, than our No. 1 wide receiver (Steve Smith), who projects to finish with 86 receiving yards, 3 rushing yards and has a 58% probability of a TD. You'll soon be able to access those numbers in the "products" section on the website.
Question 7:
What's your take on Free Agents vs. Waivers. To some, they are the same thing and must go through the waiver process. To others, Free Agents can be picked up anytime and are treated as First Come First Serve - even during games! Also, do you prefer a rolling waiver wire or worst team gets first pick?
Thanks for your feedback.
MIKE CLARK [LAS VEGAS, NV]
A:
I like the system of letting teams bid on free agents. Give each team $1,000 to spend. Every Wednesday night at 8 pm, bids are due. Highest bidder gets the player (with ties broken by teams' records).
Any player who is then cut can't be picked up until the next Auction the following Wednesday night.
After the Wednesday night auction, players are available on a first-come, first-serve basis until the start of the first NFL game of the week.
Question 8:
Looking for some trade help...Standard yardage league (starts 1 qb, 2rbs), I have Romo and Brees at qb, with Gore, McGahee and Lewis at rb...Would you trade Romo for Bush? Romo looked great, can I get more for him; plus Bush looked shaky? Is the trade worth it? Thanks.
Joe Cartan [San Francisco, CA]
Question 9:
Season greetings Ian! I was wondering if Scheduletron or yourself will update team by team difficulty of schedule as the season moves along. That is a important tool for me. I don't like my running backs going against Chicago, Balt, Pitts. That was why I picked Jones-Drew and A. Green in the 4th round. The last report I can find was done back in June. Thanks - Ben, raider haters
BEN HOGEVOLL [SILETZ, OR]
A:
I'll start updating the Scheduletron after either week 3 or 4's games are complete. There isn't enough info available right now to make the results meaningful.
Readers' Comments
Add a Comment
Already a registered user? Please sign in to add comments.
To add comments, you must become a registered user of our site. To register, please click here.
Question 1: I'm real worried about Larry...
Posted by TIM LIEBERG | Sep. 15 at 08:39 PM
Ian, I think you're overly optimistic here. The question on Johnson's schedule sure seems relevant: KC's schedule is brutal. You could argue Johnson's best matchup prior to week 16 at Detroit was week 1. He put up a lousy 43 yds rushing and Bennett had a third of the carries. KC looks like they could give the Browns a run for next year's number 1 pick. If so, that's not a team you want any part of, at least not with your supposed #1 RB. If you look at the next four defenses on the schedule alone (Bears, Vikings, Chargers, Jaguars) Johnson owners might want to think about moving beyond "real worried" and proceed to "panic."
Question 1: I'm real worried about Larry...
Posted by LOUIS KOUTSKY | Sep. 18 at 10:42 PM
David, pick up Randy Moss off the waiver wire, since no one who bought the preseason updates drafted him.
Question 5: Hi Ian. I realize it's...
Posted by scott morrow | Sep. 19 at 05:32 PM
I drafted Evans in the 3rd round and I'm definately don't share Ian's optimism. If you call what he had against Denver a rough day, what would you call the day he had against Pittsburgh. Losman looked pathetic in that game. Evans owners could be in for a long year. The Patriots in week 3 doesn't ease my mind. As far as outproducing Moss, after 2 weeks he's down by 13 receptions, 266 yards and 3 td's.
Question 9: Season greetings Ian! I was...
Posted by David Kennedy | Sep. 17 at 12:26 PM
I need a flex starter for week 3. Normally a no brainer with Lee Evans but he has been killing me. This weeks matchup does not look promising with the way the Patriots are playing. I can choose from Chris Brown, Engram, and of course Evans. What is your overall feeling about Evans?