Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Oct. 05 at 01:53 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
Randy Moss 7 touchdowns and gobs of yardage. The great Lee Evans? Has maybe 9 points and no TDs. This is not sour grapes. I find it hard to believe that this is what you do for a living and you blew it totally on Randy Moss. I am seriously thinking about going elsewhere for my fantasy insights. Your magazine totally ripped Moss. I hope you enjoy that humble pie. How can you not think a player the talent of Moss would not thrive in New England?
joseph brinkos [RESTON, VA]
A:
Easy to say in October. I don't, however, recall getting a single complaint in August regarding where Moss was slotted. And I don't recall seeing any comments from readers when 15 other receivers went for higher prices in the Mock Auction in the magazine. Everybody missed on Moss. In our magazine poll of 25 guys who do this for a living, only 2 of those 25 ranked Moss higher than 10th among wide receivers. In hindsight, everybody wishes they had drafted Moss, Tom Brady, Dallas Clark, Tony Romo and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, but this isn't BACK TO THE FUTURE. I don't have a copy of the 2015 Sports Almanac. And despite missing on Moss, I believe I'm having a good year. I had Romo, for example, as my No. 6 quarterback; that's higher than any of the 25 guys in our poll. And I had Houshmandzadeh as the No. 7 receiver; only one of the 25 experts in our poll ranked him higher. I'm sure I'll get plenty of hate mail on Moss before the year is through -- just as I did when I underrated him as a rookie back in 1998 -- but that's just part of the job. You can't get them all.
Question 2:
Chris Henry will presumably have some value when his eight-game suspension is over. Is it worth picking him up a few weeks early and stashing him on our roster waiting for the suspension to pass? Do you think he will have much value late in the year or will it take him too long to get into the swing of things?
PAUL BLANCK [KANSAS CITY, MO]
A:
We're heading into week 5, so about now, I think, is the time to move on Henry. Maybe you can wait one more week, but I can't promise that. He's a heck of a talent. He's tall, fast, and he's a big part of the Bengals offense. They've been struggling without him. They've used four different guys in that No. 3 role in their last four games -- Tab Perry, Glenn Holt, Skyler Green and Antonio Chatman. In those final eight games of the season, I expect Henry to score 4 TDs and average about 40 receiving yards.
Question 3:
I know in a previous mailbag you mentioned you would be updating the scheduletron after Week 3 or 4. Any idea when we can expect to see that?
MICHAEL ROPER [GLEN ALLEN, VA]
A:
It's up now. The Seahawks and Cardinals jump up as having the easiest schedules the rest of the way. The Lions, Panthers and Washington appear to have the hardest schedules. Three teams' remaining games are against teams that are currently (on average) allowing over 23 points per game: Seahawks, Steelers, Cardinals. At the other end of the spectrum, you've got Oakland and Detroit at 19.0 points per game, on average, and Indianapolis way down at 17.7 -- 1.3 points per game lower than anyone else.
Question 4:
Hey Ian, after a month of football who do you see as difference makers in the playoffs? Any buy-low candidates or waiver-wire sleepers looking especially juicy in those crucial final four weeks?
Tim Concannon [Norwood, MA]
A:
It's early, but some favorable late-season matchups are starting to emerge.
Arizona's last three games are against the Saints, Falcons and Rams. I believe Edgerrin James will be very good in that period.
Buffalo plays Miami and Cleveland in December. Marshawn Lynch could be very solid in those games.
Cincinnati's last four games are against the Rams, 49ers, Browns and Dolphins. If the wheels haven't fallen off that team, it could be very productive in that stretch.
Cleveland -- yes, Cleveland -- could be a factor in December. Last four are against the Jets, Bills, Bengals and San Francisco. Dial up Jamal Lewis.
I don't care whom the Colts and Patriots play in their final four games. I think those offenses can roll up big numbers on anyone.
Pittsburgh has three very difficult games in December -- at New England and Baltimore and a home game against Jacksonville. But it does have a road game at St. Louis in there, where Willie Parker should run wild.
Seattle, in its final four, plays Arizona and Baltimore at home and Carolina and Atlanta on the road. Considering what these teams will be playing for at that time, I consider that to be a favorable stretch.
Tampa Bay, with an NFC South title there for the taking, should roll in weeks 15 and 17 against Atlanta and Carolina.
Question 5:
Ian- A trade proposed by me and my co-owner was accepted (we gave up Jon Kitna, LaMont Jordan and Vincent Jackson and got back Edgerrin James and Andre Johnson), then vetoed by the league. The commissioner overturned the veto as the trade is obviously fair and no explanation was given by anyone who vetoed. This caused an outcry, and the trade is once again vetoed. Please post your thoughts so the idiots in our league can have some sense knocked into them, thanks.
Joe DeBellis [MAHOPAC, NY]
A:
I'm not sure what the complaint would be. It's a trade where the winner will be determined by injuries. If Kitna stays healthy, he'll be a top-5 quarterback, but I don't see that happening -- he gets sacked too often. Andre Johnson is hurt right now, but he could be a top-10 receiver when he returns. With Jordan, I fear a committee developing there in Oakland, with Justin Fargas and Dominic Rhodes in the mix (that team, however, is running the ball a lot better than I expected). Edgerrin James is playing very well, and should put up big numbers Sunday against a soft Rams run defense.
Question 6:
I am in a dynasty league and am looking to stockpile my bench with future studs. Do you have an updated "Keeper" list like the one you published in the magazine? I am especially interested in which WRs to hold (James Jones vs. Anthony Gonzalez vs. Craig Davis vs. Bryant Johnson vs. Jehreme Urban etc).
David Jung [SAN FRANCISCO, CA]
A:
Looking at the rookie receivers, I'd still put Calvin Johnson No. 1, but not by much over Dwayne Bowe. Bowe isn't as fast as Johnson, but he's also a big playmaker -- he's better than Johnson right now. And I wouldn't put too much weight in Johnson having the advantage of playing in Mike Martz's pass-crazy offense. Can you say with any certainty that Martz will even be in the NFL a year from now? I can't. No. 3, I'd go with Anthony Gonzalez. He hasn't shown much yet, but he's in a nice spot -- Peyton Manning is going to be a great quarterback for years, and Marvin Harrison is nearing the end of the road. In a tie at No. 4, I'm going with Jacoby Jones (Houston) and Sidney Rice (Minnesota). Jones looked phenomenal in the preseason, while I got a Randy Moss flashback when Rice caught that lob-ball touchdown on Sunday -- I think he'll be the Vikings' No. 1 receiver next year. Next up would be either James Jones of the Packers or Craig Davis in San Diego; those guys look pretty good. Then maybe Robert Meachem and Ted Ginn, Jr., who haven't really done anything yet. And then you'd be rummaging around the bottom of the bin -- Laurent Robinson, Dwayne Jarrett, Steve Smith (NYG).
Question 7:
Here's a strategy question that I'm sure others have or will have in the future. With all of the RB injuries of late and bye weeks upon us, are you in favor of picking up a backup RB that may be on a bye week hedging that he'll start for an ailing starter in the future (e.g.. Betts this week if Portis is out in week 6 or a Young for Henry if he stays down) or are you in favor of "just win now baby" and get a replacement player for one of your guys on a bye week even if he splits carries with another in order to have a shot at putting some points on the board in week 5?
Troy Hopper [MOORESTOWN, NJ]
A:
I believe that all of those high-upside backup running backs -- Michael Turner, Kenton Keith, Selvin Young, Najeh Davenport, Kenny Watson, Musa Smith and Chicago's Adrian Peterson -- should be on fantasy rosters. Probably half of those guys, at some point this season, will step in and be very productive starters. With Travis Henry and Joseph Addai banged up, both Young and Keith might start this week.
Question 8:
My 2 quarterbacks are Eli Manning and Phillip Rivers. Deciding which one is going to have an okay week is going to give me an ulcer. Which one do you like the rest of the way? Also, I was thinking of packaging one of them and Hines Ward in attempt to get Brees from his frustrated owner. Thoughts?
Mike Koffski [Chicago, IL]
A:
I think Manning will beat Rivers most weeks. Definitely this week, with Rivers on the road against a Denver defense with the league's No. 1 pass defense and Manning facing a Jets secondary that allowed Trent Edwards to complete 22 of 28 last week. I think the Manning-Rivers tag-team is good enough that you need not go after Brees.
Question 9:
I am undefeated at 4-0 in a point per reception league with my QBs being Favre and Leinart. I need to make a trade with a bye coming up with Favre. Who do you think can turn it around and have a good year at the QB position that might be undervalued? Thanks.
JOHN SHELBROCK [FRANKENMUTH, MI]
A:
Let's see how Leinart plays this weekend. He could be your week 7 starter (when Favre sits). If not, perhaps some other quarterback will become available before that time -- maybe Jon Kitna gets hurt in Detroit or Chad Pennington or Steve McNair gets benched. Oakland is at home that week against Kansas City, so maybe Daunte Culpepper.
Question 10:
Would you accept a trade for DeShaun Foster and give up Jon Kitna. I have Tony Romo and just lost my 3rd RB, Deuce McAllister.
Peter Schmidt [BETHESDA, MD]
Question 11:
Not a question but a solution to a problem I have seen frequently in the mailbag, how to deal with a high scoring team being left out of the playoffs. I am in a 12 team league, 3 divisions of four teams each, the top two teams in each division make the playoffs plus the highest scoring team that didn't finish in the top two of its division, with the team that finished with the best record overall getting a first round bye. Works well for us.
Bryan Crowther [Victoria, BC]
A:
Sounds good. I'll pass it along. My only comment would be that with seven teams out of 12 making the playoffs, doesn't that take the edge off the regular season? We've got a similar issue in one of my leagues, with six of 10 making the postseason, and I find myself not caring so much about the regular-season games.
Readers' Comments
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Question 1: Randy Moss 7 touchdowns and...
Posted by TOMMY LUCKNER | Oct. 05 at 02:37 AM
Ian, I'm ok with the Moss preseason ranking - I agreed with it. You guys are not afraid to take chances (Tatum Bell). I too passed on Moss, and have Lee Evans on my team. Its a long year - let's revisit this subject in a couple months. I have a hard time seeing Moss staying healthy all year anyway.
Question 1: Randy Moss 7 touchdowns and...
Posted by KURT FERNSTROM | Oct. 05 at 03:27 AM
I didn't like Moss coming into the season either, but the one thing that gave me pause was that Ian said the *exact same thing* when TO signed with Philly - McNabb spreads the ball around too much, blah blah blah. Hello! Of course Todd Pinkston or Freddie Mitchell wasn't racking up targets and touchdowns, and the same goes for Troy Brown, Deion Branch etc. When you match a great WR with a great QB, good things follow. Ian's most famous flop also falls into the same general category - focusing too much on the system, and not the player. He wasn't high on Tatum Bell, he was high on Denver Running Back. Sometimes the quality of the player matters, too.
Question 1: Randy Moss 7 touchdowns and...
Posted by Jose Montana | Oct. 05 at 03:28 AM
Wait just a minute, there: Lee Evans has put up outstanding numbers in the past, he's just having a bad year (after 4 games...) HOWEVER, I'm looking at my September 5 PPR cheat sheet and I see Randy Moss number 27, behind Jerricho Crotchery and Reggie Brown. Absolutely no excuse for that. AND FURTHERMORE, we all like to laugh about Tatum Bell that year "he could be the key to your draft" BUT Bell slid way way down the rankings in the preseason updates. And enough with the "we missed Randy Moss his rookie season, too." you know noone faults you for that. Even if Moss breaks his leg this week, this is the low point for your mag. But I'll buy it next year anyway.
Question 1: Randy Moss 7 touchdowns and...
Posted by PAUL KONCZAL | Oct. 05 at 04:05 AM
It's easy to be a critic, especially when you are second guessing people's predictions. If it was so easy to see what Randy Moss (who let's face it has a ton of talent but is a front-running head case) was going to do, then why didn't you simply ignore Ian's prediction and bump him higher on your board. The Patriots are rolling now and Randy Moss is a stud. Let's see what happens when things don't go the Patriot's and Moss's way. Oh, and let's hope hasn't been hanging out with Travis Henry (is that Ian's fault too???)...
Question 1: Randy Moss 7 touchdowns and...
Posted by Alan Hight | Oct. 05 at 04:52 AM
I wouldn't be too hard on Ian; he is only offering an educated guess. The fact he collects money for these services, yes, can piss people off if these predictions don't come through, but nobody knows everything about what the upcoming weeks will tell.....nobody. If "so called experts" are trying to sell you advice, let the buyer beware. Nobody should really be paying for any service unless you are someone who is truly in the dark about what is going on in the NFL and perhaps a novice in Fantasy Football. I gladly listen to what Ian has to say along with about five others, but I don't for one second think they know "more that I do." I just like to bounce things off my friends to mmake sure I am along the right path. In nine years, I have never had a losing record and I owe 85% of that to ME; my research and gut instinct. Yes, I sought free advice periodically, but it was "I" who must take sole responsibilty for the draft and lineups I produce. You must learn the NFL and not lean on others to make the ultimate decision. Besides, he is a Seahawks fan and that should buy him a few more years. {s}
Question 1: Randy Moss 7 touchdowns and...
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Oct. 05 at 05:04 AM
Apparently there were only 2 NFL GMs confident enough that Moss wasn't washed up to even offer up a 4th-round pick. Good for him proving almost everyone wrong, but that's the point. Most people were wrong.
Question 1: Randy Moss 7 touchdowns and...
Posted by STEVEN HIRONAKA | Oct. 05 at 05:12 AM
I'm not upset about Randy Moss's ranking as I am about the 2 huge landmines I stepped on, Lee Evans and Drew Brees. My season is finished. My 15 years worth of subscriptions is also finished. Goodbye.
Question 1: Randy Moss 7 touchdowns and...
Posted by ROD GABRIEL | Oct. 05 at 06:38 AM
Quit whining about the rankings for Moss, Evans and Brees. While Ian missed the boat on those so did just about everyone else out there. To Steven Hironaka; how has the service done for you the previous 14 years? Either it has done pretty well for you or you haven't made a wise choice for using that long and should have dropped it before this year. If you are lazy enough to rely 100% on any one service and not use your own judgment/research, then you have to be ready to accept the consequences when they miss once in the while. Once again I am among the league leaders (actually leading at 4-0 with most points scored overall) in my league. Thanks in a large part to Fantasy Index. I am pretty sure I am the only person in my league to use Fantasy Index and I often get comments/looks of surprise when I make some of my picks. However, I have missed the playoffs only once in the past 6 years and have won it more times than anyone else. Fantasy Index is will continue to a big advantage I enjoy over the rest of my league.
Question 1: Randy Moss 7 touchdowns and...
Posted by Craig Rinne | Oct. 05 at 07:22 AM
Ahem, time for a small pat on my own back--in Ian's 7/31 mailbag, I did predict Moss would have a very good year (see below)--though I must admit I didn't expect it to be this good. I think we all confused cause and effect--we thought that Brady spread balls/TDs around to multiple WRs because of the system, whereas actually the system spread balls around because they didn't have a great receiver. Also, the red zone prowess of Moss wasn't mentioned enough--with an accurate quarterback, his height, hops, and hands make him indefensible by most DBs. All that said, I didn't draft Moss! (I thought I could sneak him in a round later). But thanks to Ian and FFI, I have Romo, Housh, TO, Henry (haha, but I also picked up Young, so I'm not too worried) and am currently in first place--thanks! from 7/31 Mailbag: While Brady/Belichick do spread the passes around, they've never had a receiver like Moss to work with, especially in the red zone (even given that they use TEs a lot), which will be a question mark w/ Dillon retired. And speaking of Dillon, Pats didn't have a big TD rusher before Dillon arrived (I think Smith had one double digit TD year), but they certainly used Dillon when he was there, which perhaps indicates a willingness to use a special talent when one arrives. I'd say 1000+ yds, 10-11 TDs is realistic for Moss.
Question 1: Randy Moss 7 touchdowns and...
Posted by THOMAS BALLARD | Oct. 05 at 11:54 AM
I have been subscribing for years and will continue too. I personally figured Moss would implode and would be kicked off by Billicheat. Hindsight is always 20/20. Only item I called Ian out on was Adrian Peterson(Minn), I personally expected a bigger year from AP than Ian expected. I also thought Lamont Jordan would bounce back with Lane Kiffin running the offense. I give Ian credit though, Kitna and Housh have been huge for me.
Question 1: Randy Moss 7 touchdowns and...
Posted by Joseph Smith | Oct. 05 at 01:00 PM
As an avid reader of the magazine, I can say that I drafted both Romo and Houshmandzadeh... and, like everyone else, passed on Moss. After four weeks, I'm second in my 12 team league. "I am seriously thinking about going elsewhere for my fantasy insights." Can I be in this guy's fantasy league???
Question 1: Randy Moss 7 touchdowns and...
Posted by TIM LIEBERG | Oct. 05 at 03:25 PM
Someone should observe NE and Mr. Moss have played some of the worst defenses in the NFL so far (and it won't be very hard this week either...) People not only underestimated Moss/Brady but they overestimated the rest of the AFC Least - it's possible the rest of the division will all finish with 4 or fewer wins, which I think few forecast.
Question 1: Randy Moss 7 touchdowns and...
Posted by Todd Weigel | Oct. 05 at 07:03 PM
I remember one of the Fanball.com writers picked Moss as the #1 WR. He even wrote an article defending the pick. He made the same case as above, that Brady has never had such a talented target, so the spread-em-out system wouldn't matter. Also, Moss had never had a QB like Brady. The Fanball guy knew the pick was a huge gamble. He just made his bones.
Question 1: Randy Moss 7 touchdowns and...
Posted by John Boyd | Oct. 08 at 09:09 PM
So in summary; Ian hit on Romo, T.O., Housh, & Henry and missed on Evans, Peterson & Brees...thus lending support to the opinion above: "don't pay for your fantasy football advice." No real gripe here because you never know in fantasy football, but everyone (even the most adamant Ian supporter) must admit the L. Evans miss is a continuing joke given that a WR with 12 catches for 113 yards and no touchdowns is continuously ranked in the top 15 for weekly plays. Ian, learn form the Tatum Bell debacle...let it go.
Question 1: Randy Moss 7 touchdowns and...
Posted by joseph brinkos | Oct. 09 at 04:21 AM
Lee continues the mediocrity. One whole point last night. A fantasy dud. I don't want to hear about a rookie qb etc, if evans was so great it would not matter. Your fantasy bust of the year. Easy lee evans in a landslide. Moss rolls!
Question 1: Randy Moss 7 touchdowns and...
Posted by Scott Florence | Oct. 10 at 11:38 PM
There's one aspect of Fantasy Football that so many people like to ignore = LUCK. Yes, all the preperation, research, and prognostication help - but at the end of the day some luck plays into it. I targeted Evans and Brees at my draft but they didn't come to me. I could credit that solely to MY drafting players that have (so far) performed better - but that wouldn't be entirely true.
Question 1: Randy Moss 7 touchdowns and...
Posted by Farhan Hassan | Oct. 11 at 01:40 AM
Any resource such as Fantasy Football Index should be just that-- a resource. You cannot rely exclusively on what someone else's projections but you can certainly use the observations/rankings to make a more informed decision. Personally, I have benefitted from the Index. As an example, last year I picked up Romo from the waiver wire in part because Ian wrote in the weekly Index that Bledsoe was a dead man walking. Now, I had to cut someone from my roster to take that risk. I took that risk because I also saw what Ian wrote and I believed in it. Nobody else in my 12 team league even attempted to pick up Romo. Now, I have a top 5 quarterback in a keeper league beacuse I had the instinct to pick up Romo but I also had information from another resource at the right stage. So it is easy to critisize in hindsight but you also have to take into account the entire body of work.
Question 1: Randy Moss 7 touchdowns and...
Posted by joseph brinkos | Oct. 11 at 11:00 AM
I realize it's luck and the index is a resource. I've been playing fantasy since 1989. My point is many people do use the index as a guide. I want them to be aware to read the mag, but use your own judgement. When you go back and read the index from this year, it's laughable how wrong they are on moss and evans. To quote the book "Do not draft randy moss, he is done" Lee Evans is a stud etc. If i do buy the product again i'm doing george constanza, i'm going opposite everything they say. They recommend some highly not drafting them. Someone they rip i'm taking high.