Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Nov. 02 at 09:31 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
What are your thoughts on owning both Chad Johnson and TJ Housh? Is it a good move to have both and start both every week?
TAKI ZAMBARAS [COATESVILLE, PA]
A:
Sounds good. My only concern would be that Chris Henry comes back next week. Henry is a damn good player. A complete head case and an off-field time bomb, but a damn good player. With his height and speed, he's like a Randy Moss-type talent. "Any other team, he's the No. 1 guy," Carson Palmer says. And playing on the same team as Houshmandzadeh and Johnson, Henry will see plenty of single coverage. Palmer likes that matchup, particularly in the red zone. Look for Henry to catch plenty of passes, and he might lead the team in TD catches during the second half of the season. This reduces the value of those Oregon State guys.
Question 2:
I lost my game last week on Monday night when Kampman "sacked" Brandon Marshall. Cutler handed off to Marshall and then went into a route. Marshall looked back at him and then ran all around before losing 3 yards. I cannot find anywhere on NFL.com or anywhere else that it is possible for anyone other than the QB to get sacked. Did they change this rule?
DAN FRYE [FRIENDSWOOD, TX]
A:
A player need not be a quarterback to be sacked. Instead, the key is whether the player intends to attempt a pass. In the league's "Guide For Statisticians" -- the book the stat-keeper in the press box uses -- the official wording is as follows: "Credit a sack ... subject to the following principles ... When the player making an apparent attempt to pass is tackled or downed at or behind the statistical line of scrimmage." On those type of plays, you typically see the running back or receiver re-positioning the ball in his hand, so that he's holding it correctly to throw the ball. Definitely a sack on that one.
Question 3:
You say it might be time to unload T.J., but you have him ranked No. 2 on your PPR league redrafter. So are you saying it's time to unload him for Randy Moss only?
BARRY BROWN [Columbus, OH]
A:
Maybe you trade him for a player from another position. I think his value could/should decline, but I don't see anyone at the receiver position I'd be willing to trade him for in that format. The problem, in trying to downgrade him, is that Houshmandzadeh so far has so consistently outperformed our projections for him. All along, we've had him slotted to catch about a third of the team's touchdown passes. Right now, he's scored in every game and has caught 9 of the 14 TD passes thrown by Palmer. So to downgrade him right now, we're leaving that projection at about 33 percent, which means when Palmer throws about 15 TDs the rest of the way, Houshmandzadeh should catch about 5 of them, rather than another 9. I was aware that the Houshmandzadeh would probably result in a few "Yeah, but look at your rankings" e-mails. If you look at the fine print, you'll see some disclaimers in there. I think his value will decline, but I'm not sure there's really anything to do about it.
Question 4:
When are you guys going to give Kevin Curtis his due? He's the 6th best WR in my league so far.
Mike Lenett [Maryland]
A:
He's a good receiver. That was a whale of a one-handed catch he made last week. The best I've seen since Anquan Boldin caught one with his upfield hand while going out of bounds at Seattle in 2005 or 2006. But I don't see Curtis as a fantasy difference maker. He had the one monster game against the Lions -- 11 catches for 225 yards and 3 TDs. But other than that, he's averaging only 60 yards per game, and his only touchdown came on a play that should have been negated by a pre-snap penalty that the refs missed.
Question 5:
Ian, it sucks to lead the league in points and only be 4-4. But I'm not giving up yet. I have Ryan Grant, Maurice Jones-Drew and Travis Henry. We start 2 RBs. Would I be wise to dump Henry for Selvin Young and just start Grant and Jones-Drew until Henry is done?
DARRELL PRESTELLA [CARSON CITY, NV]
A:
I think Henry will be suspended for a year before the team starts practicing for the Kansas City game on Wednesday. I'd pick up Young now -- as in I wouldn't even finish reading this mailbag. Gotta get Young if he's somehow been overlooked in your league.
Question 6:
Hi .....Well those of us that drafted Steven Jackson, Rudi Johnson and the like are in a world of hurt. Thinking about next year, who are the players that I should be targeting that are likely to become starters or who will become strong fantasy contributors because of free agency, injury, coaching changes or whatever. Thanks and keep up the good work!
STEVE LANDRY [DANVILLE, CA]
A:
Michael Turner definitely will land as a starter somewhere. He'd be the guy to start with. Jacoby Jones. Maybe Chris Henry (Tenn.). Maybe -- maybe -- Michael Bush. Steve Smith of the Giants, replacing Amani Toomer. Sidney Rice of the Vikings. Robert Meachem. Bryant Johnson of Arizona could sign a free-agent deal with some team and start. And all the young quarterbacks -- JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb and John Beck. Those are just guys who come to mind as I look at the list of the 32 teams. I could be missing someone.
Question 7:
A twist on the Oct 25 trivia (which involved the Rams and Washington): Hall of Fame head coach George Allen owns the distinction of never having a losing season in 12 years as a head coach in the NFL. He is credited with turning around the Los Angeles Rams, a perennial loser before he took over in 1966. Later, he performed the same magic on Washington, a team that had just one winning season in the 15 years prior to his arrival.
MARTIN DONNELLY [ELMHURST, IL]
A:
He's always been one of my favorite coaches, but I'm the son of a George Allan, so I'm biased.
Question 8:
If you had a marquis player (e.g. Steve Smith) that you wanted to put on the trading block to obtain a top RB for the remainder of the season, which RB would you take. Rank the top 10.
PATRICK ALESIA [ALPHARETTA, GA]
A:
My top 10 running backs right now would go something like this ...
LaDainian Tomlinson
Adrian Peterson
Joseph Addai
Brian Westbrook
Larry Johnson
Edgerrin James
Willie Parker
Marion Barber III
Willis McGahee
Marshawn Lynch
Question 9:
I have interest in Michael Pittman coming off the bye in week 10. What are your thoughts on picking him up next week and stashing him for a run to the playoffs. Looking ahead through the end of the season, it looks as though he has a favorable schedule. Will he be healthy, and if so should I pick him up?
Dustin Mason [Austin, TX]
A:
I believe Pittman will be active in either week 11 or 12. He's healthy enough that he's doing some work in practice right now. But I don't have any interest in him as a fantasy prospect. I believe Earnest Graham will remain the starting running back there; he's doing a nice job. And I think Michael Bennett's role will have to expand; he's still got some speed. That should leave Pittman, at best, working into a part-time role, getting maybe -- maybe -- a third of the work.
Question 10:
I just bought low on Lee Evans....Good time to buy low on Bernard Berrian? Or is he officially not getting it done this year?
Brian Grzybowski [RICHMOND, VA]
A:
Berrian has some big-play potential, but he doesn't have the same go-to guy role that Evans has. The Bears probably like Muhsin Muhammad more in the red zone. They've got two pass-catching tight ends. Devin Hester is starting to play a lot more, and he could be targeted on a few of the long balls that might previously have gone to Berrian. And I saw Mark Bradley on the field a lot in the Detroit game. Those who have been suffering with Evans all year, by the way, may get a nice little spike of production from him the next two weeks -- Bengals and Dolphins, and Losman's back in the lineup. Better late than never.
Question 11:
Is it worth a roster spot to keep Ronnie Brown? I could keep him next year and give up my 3rd round pick. I will possibly be keeping Tom Brady for a 2nd round pick and could keep either Andre Johnson for a 4th, Mike Turner for a 5th.
WYATT KLEIN [S MILWAUKEE, WI]
A:
If everybody threw their players back into the pot and you re-drafted for 2008, would Brown be one of the first 30 players selected? Coming off reconstructive knee surgery, probably not. Would Turner be selected in the top 50? Definitely. He'll land somewhere as a starting tailback next season.
Question 12:
Is it time to cut bait on Steven Jackson? I'm in a league where we can only carry 3 RBs & I've got to cut someone. I've got Jackson, AP, Brandon Jacobs & Selvin Young. Another twist is we have a salary cap. Jackson is taking about 30% of my cap, AP 7%, Jacobs 7%, and Young 1%. Obviously, I'm keeping AP. Which one of the other three do I dump?
Corey Gaulrapp [ABERDEEN, SD]
A:
Sounds good. Let's cut Jackson and assume that Young moves into the starting lineup in Denver next week. Jacobs has been coming on.
Question 13:
In our league, every player plays each week, nobody sits. And it's scored with TDs with pluses for 100-yard games. Frank Gore is killing me. Would it make sense to pick up someone like Kenton Keith or Najeh Davenport at this point in time? They look like they may have a better chance of scoring.
Mike Monahan [Las Vegas, NV]
Question 14:
Which RB do you feel will have the most value the rest of the season?... Larry Johnson, Clinton Portis or Willis McGahee? I need to target one of them in a trade.
Ryan Ballew [SPRINGFIELD, IL]
A:
Johnson. He's got some favorable games coming up -- such as a pair against Denver, which is currently last in run defense. Baltimore can't seem to get its offense going, and Portis is just a part-time player.
Readers' Comments
Add a Comment
Already a registered user? Please sign in to add comments.
To add comments, you must become a registered user of our site. To register, please click here.
Question 1: What are your thoughts on...
Posted by john brower | Nov. 08 at 02:45 PM
i have p.manning,l.t. mbIII,tj housh.,m.turner,r.wayne,can only keep 4 who should it be?td and 1pt for 100yd progress pts for every 50 yds after.thanks, jb
Question 8: If you had a marquis...
Posted by TIM LIEBERG | Nov. 03 at 06:24 PM
You probably should have mentioned Steve Smith is not worth any of these guys given his abysmal qb situation. Oh and the proper spelling is marquee - marquis is a title for a nobleman.
Question 8: If you had a marquis...
Posted by BRAD MARTINEZ | Nov. 03 at 07:01 PM
Thanks for the spelling lesson. You are apparently smarter than all of us.
Question 8: If you had a marquis...
Posted by RANDY KRZMARZICK | Nov. 06 at 07:26 AM
Perhaps he is referring to Marquis de Sade, a one-time star performer who also fell on some lean times...