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Ian Allan's Mailbag

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Posted Jun. 25 at 10:52 AM

Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.



Question 1:

First of all, props on going with the powder blue cover photo! Definitely the best cover in my 10-year collection of FFI issues. Two "bold predictions" really jumped out at me. First, I can't believe you're buying into the Romo hype! You had a laundry list of reasons things could go wrong (finished poorly, new coach, etc.), yet you ignored them all and ranked him high anyway. What makes you feel he has more potential or less question marks than many of the proven veterans you have listed behind him? Also, you listed the same concerns for Addai as you did for Maroney, yet you appear to have ignored them only in Addai's case. I'm still scratching my head on that one. Care to defend yourself on this year's controversial rankings?


Dale Gander [Sun Prairie, Wis.]

A:

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Who are the “many proven veterans” I have ranked behind Romo? I’ve got the draft board in front of me, and I’m not seeing them. Jon Kitna has potential in Detroit’s pass-happy offense, but I’m not comfortable guaranteeing he’ll start more than 10 games. He’s going to be sacked and hit an awful lot, and if the team isn’t winning, it may stick in Drew Stanton at some point. Donovan McNabb is certainly a proven and talented quarterback, but he’s coming off a serious knee injury. And I don’t see anyone else I’d even consider ranking ahead of Romo. Matt Hasselbeck never seems to quite get over the hump; Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers haven’t reached that top plateau yet; and I’ve got a feeling Vince Young will head in the wrong direction. So flaws and all, I see Romo as the best of the quarterbacks after those five top guys are gone – Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer and Marc Bulger. The stats I’m projecting for Romo aren’t of the eye-popping variety – 235 passing yards and 9 rushing yards per game. If he stays in the lineup for 16 games, I see him finishing with 25-26 TD passes and 1 TD run. I’d take him about 45-55 players into a draft.

As for Addai and Maroney, I do see them as similar types of players. With each, I’m concerned about their ability to withstand the pounding of being a full-time player. There is, however, one important difference between the two. Addai is going to be a huge factor as a receiver, potentially catching 60-75 passes. Maroney, on the other hand, will get lifted in a lot of obvious passing situations. He’ll be spelled at times by Sammy Morris, and the Patriots like using Kevin Faulk in their one-back spread formations. That’s why I’ve got Addai ranked five spots higher.


Question 2:

I'm in a dynasty league and in August we do a rookie draft. I was wondering if you can give an overall top twenty for this year's rookie class. Typically in the magazine, you rank them by position but it would be nice to know if the 2nd-ranked WR is better than the 5th-ranked RB (or vice versa). Thanks.


Cody Hager [Aloha, Ore.]

A:

It looks like a three-man rookie class to me, with Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch and Calvin Johnson miles ahead of everyone else. Peterson is the guy I would definitely take first. I think he’s the real deal – the type of back that comes along only about once every three years. He had problems staying healthy at Oklahoma because he runs hard and high and takes a lot of punishment, but when he’s healthy, he’s clearly a special talent. And he’ll run behind an above-average offensive line. The Vikings have Chester Taylor, of course, which should cut into Peterson’s playing time, particularly this year. But I’m always leery of passing on what appears to be a franchise running back. The Lions already had a pretty good tailback – Garry James – when they drafted Barry Sanders, and Sanders went on to have a pretty good career.

The more intriguing question, at least in my opinion, is at No. 2, where the choice is Lynch or Johnson. Lynch goes into an ideal situation. He’ll be given the chance to be a full-time back right away, and the Bills really helped their offensive line in the offseason, signing Langston Walker and Derrick Dockery. But Lynch isn’t a can’t-miss running back. Can he run well enough inside? Is he durable enough? He wasn’t a full-time guy at Cal. J.J. Arrington came out of that school with similar credentials and hasn’t made any impact in the pros. So for now, I’m giving the slightest of edges to Johnson, who may be the most coveted draft prospect at wide receiver ever – there’s never been anyone at that position with that combination of size and speed. My main worry with Johnson is that he might be too big. When players get up to 240-plus pounds, I just don’t think they can be quick enough, regardless of their 40 time. A lot of jumbo-sized wide receivers over the years have never met expectations. J.J. Stokes, Mike Williams, Reggie Williams and Matt Jones come to mind.

Once those big three are off the board, you’re into the lesser rookies. I’m not sold on any of the other top running backs: Brandon Jackson, Chris Henry, Kenny Irons or Michael Bush. I’d give some thought to Greg Olsen, who’s an unusually fast tight end, but there are plenty of good players at that position. Maybe JaMarcus Russell, but he’ll need time to develop. I don’t see much difference between four of the other five first-round wide receivers: Robert Meachem, Ted Ginn Jr., Dwayne Bowe and Anthony Gonzalez.


Question 3:

I am in a dynasty league where you can keep 3 players. I have 2 of my 3 keepers set, and I am trying to decide between Thomas Jones or DeAngelo Williams. Either one would count in next year's draft as my fifth-round pick. Who would you go with and why?

Thanks -


Michael Dwyer [Mahopac, N.Y.]

A:

There’s not a lot of difference between those backs. As you probably saw in the magazine, we’ve got them ranked right next to each other on our draft board. Williams is five years younger, so he’s the guy I’d go with in a keeper league. Neither, however, represents a great value. On our regular draft board, we’ve got these guys at Nos. 49 and 50. If you opted to keep only two players, you might get a player better than either of these guys with that fifth-round pick.


Question 4:

Who are your top candidates to be this year's Frank Gore?


Christopher Cwik [Chicago]

A:

If you’re looking for “breakout” type backs, the four top candidates in my opinion would be Joseph Addai, Laurence Maroney, Travis Henry and Cedric Benson.


Readers' Comments

Question 1: First of all, props on...

Posted by Eugene Hitt | Jun. 27 at 10:15 AM

I agree with your assesment of Peterson's skill set, but I'm surprised to see you rank him over Lynch. Do you really think he'll be statisticly better this year? Olsen reminds me of Mamula in that he did all that fast running at the combine and not on the field, he's lucky to go to a team like Chicago where he won't even get forced into a starting role.

Question 3: I am in a dynasty...

Posted by Eugene Hitt | Jun. 26 at 12:08 PM

I think that Jones is the obvious choice. He is a clear cut starter in a run first offense who is capable of carrying the load. D'Angelo is a split carry guy on a team that may have QB instability. Jones, {much like D.Foster...} is also in a contract year. He'll play through injuries and see alot of work along the goal line. He is clearly a superior RB and Keeper.

Question 4: Who are your top candidates...

Posted by Scott Anderson | Jul. 03 at 08:28 AM

Along these lines, 12-team league, we can keep 1 player. Who do you keep out of Gore, Rudi Johnson or Willie Parker? Scott

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