Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Jan. 11 at 11:05 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I’m in a 12 team keeper/dynasty league, and I have a question regarding your early impressions of who I should keep for next year. We score using a traditional model except that we tend to give a little more value to QBs—they get a full 6 points per TD and 1 point per 20 yards passing. I can keep 4 of the following: Adrian Peterson (MN), Marshawn Lynch, Drew Brees, Reggie Wayne, and Andre Johnson. Peterson and Lynch are no-brainers. After that though, I’m undecided. Drew Brees is a monster in a league that scores like mine does, but having two stud WRs was also a blessing this past season. What do you think?
P.S. What is the difference between a keeper and dynasty league?
Whit Yost [Norristown, PA]
A:
That's a tough call. You definitely have to hang on to the two second-year backs. That gets you out of having to force an early pick on a running back next summer. But the decision between the other three is difficult. Wayne and Johnson play the more coveted position, and they both look like safe, can't-miss selections. Wayne should be Peyton Manning's No. 1 target for the next few years, and Johnson on a per-game basis was phenomenal last year, averaging 95 yards per game, with 8 TDs in 9 games (he missed some time with a knee injury). But tough also to part with Drew Brees. Quarterbacks get an extra boost in your league, and he's been very consistent. He averaged 277 passing yards per game last year, with 28 TDs. His numbers were almost identical the previous season, and he rarely gets sacked, so there's little chance of him missing time with an injury. Stat that might surprise you: Brees has been sacked less the last two years than Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Brett Favre. So where does that leave you? Probably pulling out your hair until you have to make your decision next August. All of those guys DESERVE to be protected, so maybe you can trade one of them.
As for keeper leagues versus dynasty leagues, I think the terms are probably interchangeable to most fantasy leagues. To me, when I hear "dynasty league", it means owners have the right to protect all of their players every year. A keeper league would be something more like yours, with owners generally protecting 2-5 players.
Question 2:
Please rate the following RBs in a $100 keeper league for next year (no ppr): Barber at $10, Parker at 9, Portis at 14, Gore at 7, Jones-Drew at 7 and Jackson at 22.
Dan McCormick [Oak Park, IL]
A:
Gore and Jones-Drew appear to be the best "values" of those running backs. Both are clearly worth a lot more than $7 -- you just don't get starting, top-15 type running backs for that kind of price. I am, however, a little nervous about the move of Mike Martz to the 49ers. Way back when, Marshall Faulk was a great back under Martz. The Rams went to Super Bowls after the 1999 and 2001 seasons, and they ranked 5th in rushing both of those years. But somewhere along the line, Martz forget about the running game. He'll talk about it occasionally, but he'll never consistently stick with it. In his last five full seasons (Martz missed the final 11 games of 2005 with a heart ailment), his offenses have ranked 30th, 30th, 25th, 32nd and 31st in rushing. And most of those teams had better talent than what Martz will have in San Francisco. So I can't say with any confidence that Gore is going to be a big star under Martz. Worth more than $7, but not an impact guy. The other guy on that list that kind of jumps out at me is Steven Jackson at $22. I think he'll be a top-5 overall player on most people's boards next August, so he'll project to be worth more in the $30-plus range, I think. Barber and Parker both could be undervalued as well. At $14, Portis might be overpriced.
Question 3:
Hey: Remember this exchange?
The magazine is out and as expected LT (coming off back-to-back 20 TD seasons) graces the cover. Has anyone coming off back-to-back 20 TD seasons ever scored more than 16 TDs?
Don Pavelka [Plainview, Minn.]
ANSWER:
Tomlinson is the fourth back who’s scored 20-plus touchdowns in back-to-back seasons. All of the others have come in this decade. Marshall Faulk scored 26 and 21 TDs in the 2000-2001 seasons, as well as going over 2,000 total yards in both of those seasons, but he wasn’t the same back the following year. His production and effectiveness were down, even before he missed two games with a foot injury. He finished with 953 rushing yards and gained only 537 receiving yards on his 80 receptions. Scored only 10 TDs as well.
Then came Priest Holmes. He scored 24 TDs in 2002 and a record 27 TDs the following year. In his third season, he scored 15 TDs and ran for 892 yards before suffering a season-ending neck injury in his eighth game. He entered that season as a 30-year-old, but his effectiveness was only slightly off prior to his injury. He wasn’t quite as explosive as a runner, and he didn’t catch nearly as many passes.
And finally there was Shaun Alexander last year. He scored 20 and 28 TDs in his two big seasons, averaging 112 rushing yards per game. But he slipped last year, missing six games with a cracked foot and struggling behind a declining offensive line. He averaged only 90 rushing yards per game and scored only 7 TDs in 10 games.
So what does this mean for Tomlinson? Nothing, as far as I’m concerned. He’s younger than any of those other backs, he’s running behind a great offensive line, and he’s been the league’s most durable back. I think he’s going to become the first to score 20 TDs three years in a row.
DON PAVELKA [PLAINVIEW, MN]
A:
Sure, I remember that e-mail.
Tomlinson was not a bust. He ran for 1,474 yards, caught 60 passes for another 475 yards. He scored 18 TDs, and he also threw a touchdown. Those are very good numbers. Short of the eye-popping kind of numbers we've seen in recent years from guys like Tomlinson, Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson, but definitely very solid.
Tomlinson, however, was a slight disappointment. His numbers were down, and he didn't seem to be quite the same back. It would be too strong to say that he's lost a step, but he didn't seem to be quite as fast, and he didn't seem to break quite as many tackles. Maybe his blocking wasn't quite as good, but it also seemed like he wasn't quite as likely to make guys miss in the open field. He's 28 now and has handled the ball 2,823 times on runs and receptions; maybe he's starting to slow down. In 10 of 17 games this year, he's averaged under 4 yards per game. A year ago, Tomlinson was held under 4 yards per carry in only 3 of 17 games.
I'm not saying Tomlinson is done. I think he'll still be the No. 1 pick in most fantasy leagues next summer. And I'll definitely have him in my top 3 overall (maybe at No. 1). But it looks like he's not that can't-miss slam-dunk prospect anymore.
Readers' Comments
Add a Comment
Already a registered user? Please sign in to add comments.
To add comments, you must become a registered user of our site. To register, please click here.
Question 3: The magazine is out...
Posted by Dan McCormick | Jan. 16 at 12:24 AM
Ian. I don't know how you can put up with these lame brained second guessers. You consistently put out the best Fantasy Football magazine on the market. Your magazine is informative and enjoyable to read, it has helped me greatly, and all these knuckle heads who expect you to be Nostradamous should get there heads examined!