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Ryan Grant definitely is No. 1. I think he's for real. He's proven himself over the last 11 weeks. Michael Turner is your No. 2 guy; he'll sign a free agent deal and start for some team. Whether you have a third viable back remains to be seen. I think the Bengals might cut the cord with Rudi Johnson, who was a disappointment for them this year. It looks like he might be past his pull date. Maybe Selvin Young can start for Denver, but I think it will be someone else. Cedric Benson appears to done. Earnest Graham, I believe, is your current No. 3 back. But he might wind up sharing time with Cadillac Williams.

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Let's not underestimate the weather. The early forecast calls for winds up to 22 mph in Foxboro, with a daytime high of 23 degrees. And in Green Bay, they're expecting a high of 6 degrees, with a 30 percent chance of snow. And as the weather gets worse, it makes passing the ball more difficult, and puts more and more of the onus on running the ball. And that makes both of these games, in my opinion, closer than advertised. The Chargers run the ball better than New England, and they're also better at defending the run. And the Giants run the ball better than Green Bay, and they're also better at stopping the run. Brandon Jacobs is a 265-pound road grader; he could be very good if the weather is really lousy. With the weather factor, I think the lines for these games are inflated. I'm not going as far as to forecast an upset, but stranger things have happened.

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Michael Turner appears to be your best guy. He'll probably sign a free agent deal to become a starter with some team. He's from Chicago, and the Bears will be looking for a tailback. Maybe Atlanta. Maybe Cleveland if Jamal Lewis asks for too much money. But Turner will sign somewhere. Pity that he didn't play better down the stretch; that will cost him some money. Turner gained only 42 yards on 11 carries in week 17 against an Oakland run defense that's one of the worst in the league. Then, after LaDainian Tomlinson got hurt in the playoffs, Turner was just OK, rather than looking like a real difference maker -- 99 yards on 26 carries against the Titans and Colts. Rather than a top-10 back, Turner appears to be another guy in the class of Brandon Jacobs -- a good player, but not a franchise-type guy.

As for the rest of your keepers, I imagine you'll probably keep Jay Cutler, Roy Williams and Lee Evans.

Cutler made some strides this year, and maybe the Broncos can put their offense back together. He looks a little better than Manning. Bulger might be as good as those guys, but he hasn't been very durable.

Williams and Evans had disappointing seasons, but both of those guys have talent. They could both possibly re-emerge as top-15 wide receivers. With the Lions, you worry some that Williams won't even be their top wide receiver -- maybe Calvin Johnson picks up his game. And with Buffalo, you have to wonder whether the team will be good enough to even get Evans the ball. Both of those teams, by the way, will have new offensive coordinators this year.

So that's four keepers. The fifth one is up in the air in my mind. Shockey is a solid tight end, but not the kind of guy you'd want to use a keeper slot on. Davis has tremendous physical talent -- speed and strength -- but it doesn't look like he has much of a feel for the game. So even with Mike Martz taking over in San Francisco, I'd be nervous about protecting him. Maybe Javon Walker can get back to being an elite receiver. Maybe DeAngelo Williams gets handed the starting tailback job in Carolina. Or maybe you decide to keep two quarterbacks. Time will tell.

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Evans finished at 55 catches and 5 TDs. Disappointing numbers, but I don't think he was one of even the top 10 busts of 2007. He's a good player, held back by a bad offense. I see Evans as a Joey Galloway-type talent. He's a difference maker, but he can't do it on his own. Numerous times during the season, I saw Evans get open for potential long touchdowns, only to have the ball overthrown or underthrown by 5 yards. And then the Bills switched to rookie Trent Edwards at quarterback, who's more of a dink-and-dunk guy. At some point in the next few years, Evans will bounce back and put up about 1,200 yards and 9 TDs.

For my Bust of the Year, I prefer to look at players who disappointed on their own accord. Steve Smith, for example, is in the same class as Lee Evans. Smith had a lousy year, but it was more due to quarterbacking than to him simply not playing well. And I'll steer clear of injuries as well, so no Marvin Harrison, Steven Jackson or Larry Johnson.

My bust of the year, therefore, would be Cedric Benson. He was handed the starting tailback job with the NFC champions. Nice offensive line to run behind. And he did nothing with it. Doesn't have enough speed. Can't catch. And seems to have a surly attitude as well.

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Bryant Johnson is a free agent, but I don't think anyone will give him a big contract. I expect him to sign somewhere to compete for a No. 2 spot. More realistically, I think he'll be a No. 3 somewhere. I just don't think he's that good. When he was with the Cardinals, he had chances to play, and he never made much of an impact. He got to start six games this year when either Larry Fitzgerald or Anquan Boldin was hurt. In those six games, Johnson averaged 4 catches and 41 yards, with 2 TDs. Big deal. He's just a guy.

Jacoby Jones looked very good in the preseason for the Texans. Made an impressive play in every game. He scored 2 TDs on punt returns, caught two touchdowns, and gained 10, 10 and 14 yards on his three end-around carries. He's got good size (6-2, 210). He's got speed. And he's elusive. Why he didn't make more of an impact in the real games for them, I'm not sure. I could see him moving up in their pecking order. The Texans have a big decision to make with Andre Davis, who ran ahead of Jones last season and scored on three kickoff returns in the final month of the season, as well as making some big catches. My guess is that some other team will give Davis more money, and that will make Jones Houston's No. 3 guy entering camp. He might be able to move past Kevin Walter and take a starting job. But Andre Johnson is the clear No. 1 receiver for that team -- a guy who should catch 100 passes and 9-plus TDs.

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Russell definitely will start next year for the Raiders. But will he do anything? I doubt it. He's got a strong arm, but it could be a few years before he gets comfortable with reading coverages and running an offense. He might not ever develop into anything. David Carr, Tim Couch, Joey Harrington and Akili Smith were all coveted quarterbacks not too long ago. And Russell isn't going to make a big impact as runner or scrambler. He looks like another Byron Leftwich -- a soft, flabby guy who could really help his game by working out more seriously and making some simple changes in his diet. If Russell made an effort to be more of an athlete, he could be one of the top 5-10 running quarterbacks in the league, taking off for 10-yard gains once in a while and scoring about 5 TDs a year on his own. But I don't expect him to do that. He has only nominal fantasy value in my eyes.

As for Kolb, I think he'll sit for another year. I think the Eagles will bring back McNabb for one final year. McNabb has, however, has had plenty of problems with injuries, so we'll likely see Kolb handle at least a few games. If he plays reasonably well, he'll probably be their opening day starter in 2009.

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