Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Jan. 25 at 10:43 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
How are ties broken when determining NFL draft order? I figured it was like the playoffs in reverse, with head to head, strength of schedule, points, etc. factored into it. A friend says all the 4-12 teams will determine their order by coin flips. Sounds crazy, but is that right?
JOHN MACHO [LAKEVILLE, MN]
A:
NFL draft order is a little different. Strength of schedule plays a larger role. Tampa Bay and Washington, for example, both finished with 10-6 records, and the Bucs won the head-to-head game between those teams, but Washington played a tougher schedule, so it is viewed as the stronger of those two teams in the draft order (Tampa Bay drafts 20th, and Washington drafts 21st).
If the ties were broken exactly like the playoff seedings, it would be the opposite. Washington would draft prior to Tampa Bay.
For this year, the most important tie is between the four 4-12 teams. The Jets played the toughest schedule of those teams, so they'll draft No. 6. The other three teams (Oakland, Kansas City, Atlanta), all tied in strength of schedule (their opponents each went a combined 132-124). So at that point, they start breaking the ties more like a playoff berth was at stake. The Raiders finished below Kansas City in the AFC West, so they'll draft ahead of Kansas City. There will be a coin flip between Atlanta and Oakland for the No. 3 spot. If the Raiders win that coin flip, there will be a coin flip between Atlanta and Kansas City for No. 4.
Why they do it this way, I'm not exactly sure. If they fully utilized the playoff-tiebreaker system, Oakland definitely would select before Atlanta. The Falcons had a better record than Oakland in common games (both teams played everyone in the AFC South, plus Minnesota), and Atlanta's strength of victory number (which comes ahead of strength of schedule in the playoff tiebreaker) is also stronger than Oakland's. I'll send an e-mail into the league PR office and see if I can figure out why they throw out most of that usual tiebreaker stuff when calculating the draft order. But they definitely do it that way.
Question 2:
Tatum Bell under Gary Kubiak in Denver in 2005 had a year that had a lot of us fantasy players drooling over what seemed sure to come in 2006. However, Kubiak went to Houston, and Bell struggled and fell out of favor in Denver. Do you think that Bell, who's unhappy and not a good fit in Detroit, will be released and reunited with Kubiak in Houston? If that materialized, do you think that Bell would take the starting job and do what we had envisioned, especially with Alex Gibbs now there?
Paul Desimone [HAYWARD, CA]
A:
I'm more excited about Gibbs than Bell. The Texans have run the ball well at times over the past two years. And I think Gibbs, working with that offensive line, will help them. Maybe they'll rank in the top 15 in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. It's a team on the rise (though it's stuck in a tough division with Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Tennessee -- the Jaguars and Titans probably will rank in the top 5 in run defense).
I don't think my old favorite, Tatum Bell, will ever be an NFL starter again. He's got good speed, but he doesn't break enough tackles and he's only ordinary in terms of vision, cutting ability and receiving. I expect Bell to sign a minimum-salary type contract with some team and compete for a backup job.
Question 3:
Laurence Maroney was considered to be a top 10 RB coming into this year. He was limited earlier in the year because of injury and the Patriots prolific passing attack. He looks like the Maroney of old the past several weeks (he is only 23!). My expectation is, just like Manning dropped off after his career year, so will Brady. This dropoff in passing TDs should put Maroney in the 12-15 TD range next year. Where do you see him ranking?
Dan McCormick [Oak Park, IL]
A:
Sounds good to me. After the year that Tom Brady had, I expect more defenses next year to be more conservative against that passing attack -- dropping guys into coverage or whatever. And the Patriots probably will counter by running the ball more and using more draws. Maroney has gone over 100 yards and scored in four of his last five games (the one exception being week 17, when the Giants held him to 46 yards and 2 TDs on 19 carries).
Early guess, but I expect Maroney will be about the No. 10 running back on my draft board. Great offense that should score plenty of points, but I still worry about his durability, and I don't think he'll catch many passes. I'm confident the Patriots will work in some other players at that position. Kevin Faulk is getting old, but I think he'll still have his usual role. Sammy Morris will be healthy; he might get 25 percent of the carries and most of the goal-line carries. And New England used Heath Evans in some goal-line packages this season.
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Question 1: How are ties broken when...
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Jan. 25 at 10:38 PM
I swapped a couple of e-mails with Greg Aiello, the spokesman for the league office. But his answers, at least to my ears, don't shed a lot of light on the issue. I asked him why there are two different tie-breaking systems. Why, for example, should the Bucs pick before Washington, when both teams finished 10-6 and Tampa Bay won the regular season meeting? He writes: "It's two different things. The seasons is a head-to-head competition between the teams. That's why the first tiebreaker is head-to-head. Next comes division and then conference records between teams are competing for division and conference championships. Strength of schedule is a tiebreaker -- down the line." I think there's something missing in his answer. Maybe the strength-of-schedule emphasis is used to help deter teams from throwing late-season games. Using the standard tie-breaking scenario, you'd be more likely to get a 3-12 entering its final game against a 2-13 team know that it could capture the No. 1 overall draft pick by losing its final game. But I'm not sure what the rationale is.