A:

In the two-week hyping of these Super Bowls, there's a tendency for writers and analysts to make the possibility of an upset or close game more likely than it actually is. You start off by pointing out the chinks in the armor of the favorite, then speculate about the two or three things that the underdog needs to do to pull off the upset.

In this case, we've got the league's first 18-0 team -- one of the biggest favorites ever -- but we're hearing more about the negative/upset stuff. Tom Brady has a sore ankle. Randy Moss caught only 1 pass in each of the playoff games. The defense is a little soft at times. And the Patriots were far more dominant earlier in the year. They won their first 10 games by an average score of 41-16. The average score of their last eight games has been 29-19, and they were nearly upset by the Eagles and Ravens, who didn't even make the playoffs.

The Giants, on the other hand, are a hot team. They've won 10 in a row away from home, including playoff wins at Dallas and Green Bay. They've got a good running game, a quarterback who's playing with confidence, and a solid defensive line that might be able to put some pressure on Tom Brady (did I mention yet that Brady has a sore ankle?). Maybe -- just, maybe -- the Giants can shorten the game by running the ball, Manning can make a few plays, they can get a couple of turnovers and big plays and turn this into a game.

But I'm not buying into that theory. The Patriots are clearly the better team -- a team for the ages -- and I think the reason you've seen them plateau a little bit over the last two months has largely been weather-related. Each of their last eight games has been played in less than ideal weather conditions. That won't be an issue on Sunday, of course. Even on the off chance there's wind, rain or snow, they would just close the dome. That's why I think you'll see the Patriots marching up and down the field, probably rolling to something like a 45-17 win.

Don't underestimate the value of New England having played in two of these games recently. They're far better equipped to deal with the hoopla, hype and extra pressure that plays a role in Super Bowls tending to become Super Blowouts. Of the last 25 Super Bowls, 15 of those games have been won by at least 12 points. Ten of those 25 games have been won by at least 19 points.

I don't think the 12-point spread is enough. Not even close. I'm taking the Patriots, and I think the game probably will be essentially over by the middle of the second quarter. I'll go with the score of 49-14. Five TD passes for Brady. One touchdown run for Laurence Maroney. One touchdown on a return of an interception.

• Comments
• Add Comment

A:

It's not official yet -- they'll approve it at the spring owners meetings -- but in recent years the seasons have been beginning the weekend after Labor Day. For 2008, that would mean a Thursday game on Sept. 4, probably 13 games on Sunday, Sept. 7, and a pair of Monday night games.

In addition: Four years in a row, the league has placed the Super Bowl champs in that Thursday opener -- and featured them at home as well. With that in mind, I think there's about an 85 percent chance that the opening game next year will be Pittsburgh at New England (if the Patriots win on Sunday, of course). The other seven games on New England's home schedule don't look particularly inviting. All of the other AFC East teams (Bills-Jets-Dolphins) struggled this season. The league won't pick Kansas City. And both of the NFC opponents look marginal -- Arizona and St. Louis. Maybe -- maybe -- the league will consider Denver if the Broncos make some dynamic moves in the offseason. And an outside chance of the Jets. But I think it's safe to assume that Pittsburgh will be opening next year at Foxborough.

If, on the other hand, the Giants win Super Bowl XLII, there will be plenty of attractive games to pick from. A Dallas game would generate huge ratings. And other matchups would be acceptable as well -- Washington, Philadelphia and Seattle for sure. Maybe even Cincinnati, if the Bengals have a solid offseason.

• Comments
• Add Comment