Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Feb. 08 at 12:07 PM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I know that it is a little early to talk about what impact Mike Martz will have on the 49er offense but who do you feel will win the QB job there? I know very little about Shaun Hill as a prospect. At WR, do you think Darrell Jackson will re-emerge or will it be Battle or Jason Hill. I don't think its a reach to say that the starting QB and a WR will be top 15 this year. Thanks.
JOHN SHELBROCK [FRANKENMUTH, MI]
A:
I'm with you. I have some interest in whatever offense Mike Martz is running. With him at offensive coordinator, there's a good chance the 49ers -- flawed as they are -- will rank in the top 10 in passing attempts and passing yards. In his two years in Detroit, the Lions ranked 5th and 6th in passing. And in his five full years as the head coach in St. Louis, the Rams ranked 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd and 4th.
The guy isn't shy about throwing the ball around.
Keep in mind, however, that this is a pretty pitiful offense he's taking over. San Francisco ranked last in passing last year -- yards, completion percentage and rating. Allowed a league-high 55 sacks as well.
I don't think Alex Smith can play. I know he was a No. 1 overall pick, but David Carr, Tim Couch and Joey Harrington were all highly-regarded young quarterbacks in the not-too-distant past as well. Harrington, recall, was still on Detroit's roster when Martz took over the offense there, and Martz quickly ran him out of town. So at this point, I wouldn't be too eager to roll the dice on Smith. In fact, I would give Shaun Hill probably a 60-40 chance to win that job. I'm not certain that Hill has the physical ability to be a good NFL quarterback -- his arm might not be strong enough -- but he played pretty well late last year. In his three games (granted, all against weak pass defenses), Hill completed 68 percent of his passes, with 5 TDs and only 1 interception. Smith completed less than 49 percent of his passes, with 2 TDs and 4 INT in essentially six games worth of action. Just maybe, Hill will become their Marc Bulger -- a young, lesser quarterback who puts up big numbers.
I have almost no interest in Darrell Jackson. Looks like the Seahawks were onto something when they dumped him. He's hurt all the time. He skips a lot of practices. He drops a lot of passes. And it looks like he's lost some speed. He's supposedly 29 years old, but on the field, he looks like he's about six years older. It wouldn't surprise me if they cut him.
Where does that leave the 49ers at wide receiver? Arnaz Battle could be OK. Perhaps he'll be another Mike Furrey or Shaun McDonald, zooming up to about 80 catches in a more aggressive offense. San Francisco used a third-round pick on Jason Hill last year, but he didn't do anything as a rookie. They've got Ashley Lelie, who might be one of their outside speed receivers. More likely, however, the team's best receiver isn't yet even on the roster. Furrey and McDonald might now not fit into Detroit's plans; perhaps one of those guys will wind up in San Francisco.
Question 2:
A team in my league has Tom Brady and has said that quarterbacks generally do better when they play from behind. He feels that our league should award 10 points per quarterback team win for any quarterback in your fantasy lineup, to reward winning quarterbacks. What do you think about this?
Johnny Rocket [Hartsville, TN]
A:
I haven't yet tabulated the 2007 numbers, but I know that in 2006, quarterbacks actually averaged more passing yards in losses (221 per game) than in wins (215). Teams tend to pass more when they're behind, I guess. (Unless it's the Patriots, who like to keep passing, even when they're up by 20-plus points in the fourth quarter).
The correlation, though, doesn't hold for touchdown passes. In 2006, teams averaged 1.53 TD passes in wins, versus 1.02 in losses. And I've seen similar numbers in the past.
So do "wins" make sense? If you want to include them, I have no problem with that. Quarterbacks seem to be kind of like pitchers in baseball, in that "wins" are definitely part of the equation -- part of the way they're judged.
Question 3:
Someone just offered me Ronnie Brown for Marion Barber or Maroney. Any thoughts on if I should pull off a trade of Brown for Maroney or Barber?
Dan McCormick [USA]
A:
I say you hang onto the dreadlocks -- all of them.
Brown played well in the first half of last season, but he's coming off a major knee surgery. And he'll also be in a new offense this season. He played a huge role in Cam Cameron's system last year, not only as a runner but as a pass catcher.
Even if Brown comes back 100 percent, it would be 50-50 at best that he would outperform either Barber or Maroney (who shared time at the University of Minnesota, by the way). Barber is a terrific talent, and he should get a lot more work in 2008. I don't think Julius Jones will be back in Dallas. And Maroney should get a bigger workload in the upcoming season as well, as opponents probably focus first on trying to slow down Tom Brady and Randy Moss. Even this year, you saw Maroney's numbers increase late in the year. He went over 80 rushing yards in only one of his first 10 games, but he went over 100 in four of his last six games. He also scored in each of his last six games. He opened the season by scoring only 2 TDs in 10 games.
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