Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted May. 06 at 12:36 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I'm debating making an offer for Marshawn Lynch in our keeper league. With the draft behind us and the schedule out, any guess where he may rank on your RB board?
MICHAEL ROPER [GLEN ALLEN, VA]
A:
I've done a first look at each team, with initial stat projections. Now, I'm going back through and adding in the rookies. Right now, Lynch is sitting at No. 12 among running backs on my board. I imagine that's about where he'll end up, because none of the rookie running backs are going to be in my top 15. I'm not sure any rookie runners will even be in my top 20.
Question 2:
I am in a dynasty league and have the 6th pick in the first round
of our rookie draft. I desperatley need a RB, do you think there are
six worthy candidates, or should i plan accordingly?
Dave Spanjer [Lake Chelan, WA]
A:
Andy Richardson, in a blurb last week, said he felt there were eight quality rookie runners. I think there are only seven that look pretty good -- the five first rounders, plus Matt Forte and Kevin Smith.
Unlike Andy, I don't include Ray Rice in my group. I wouldn't be excited about walking away with him in a dynasty draft. He's just a wait-and-see guy -- pick him up and wait for Willis McGahee to get hurt.
Forte and Smith might not be quite as talented as the first-round running backs, but they're both in terrific situations. They'll probably both lead their teams in rushing this year, and you can't say that with much confidence about the last three of those first-round picks -- Rashard Mendenhall starts out behind Willie Parker, and Chris Johnson and Felix Jones may always be part-time guys.
My guess, when pick No. 6 comes around, is that you'll be selecting either Forte or Smith. You'll either be selecting between those two guys, or one of them will be picked in the top 5 and one of the small first-round guys (Chris Johnson or Felix Jones) will be available at No. 6.
But check back with me when the lake warms up. I'll come over. We'll knock down 18 holes, do some waterskiing, barbecue some steaks and explore the issue more thoroughly.
Question 3:
I have the choice of Maroney, Parker or Ronnie Brown in one of my keeper leagues. How would you rate them for the coming year, and going forward after that.
Dan McCormick [Oak Park, IL]
A:
I'll go Maroney, Brown, Parker, and that would be for 2008 or in a dynasty format.
I don't think Maroney will ever be a full-time player -- they'll plug in some other guys and replace him on passing downs -- but he's a good player and that's an awfully impressive offense they have in New England.
Brown played well last year, but he's coming off a serious knee injury, and I think he'll share time with Ricky Williams. Also, with the team's offense changing, Brown won't catch nearly as many passes.
Parker has talent, but for the rest of his career, I see him losing more and more of his work to Rashard Mendenhall.
Question 4:
I have the No. 1 pick in my keeper league draft and I'm wondering who would be the best fit for my team between Derek Anderson and Darren McFadden or should move down to acquire more draft picks.I also might be able to trade the pick away to get an upgrade at receiver. My keepers are Vince Young,Brady Quinn,Steven Jackson,Laurence Maroney, Lee Evans,and Chris Chambers.
Judy Faxel [Orland Park, IL]
A:
You have Jackson and Maroney, so running back is not a pressing need. So I would be awfully tempted to explore the option of trading that pick for a franchise-type receiver. Some team, no doubt, is very interested in trading up to get McFadden or some other running back.
A trade down is also a viable option. If you move down a few spots, you'd still be able to get a back like Jonathan Stewart or Rashard Mendenhall, perhaps, and that guy might wind up being better than McFadden.
Lots of nice options for you. You can sit back and see what these guys look like in the preseason games.
Question 5:
I have a question that centers around my league that is a point per reception league. Is there anyway that I can find out which teams throw to their running backs the most? A back at say Tampa Bay has extra value in this format, I think. Look at Earnest Graham who is at best an average RB but in that system was very productive because TB throws to their RBs. I am also very high on Ryan Grant this year for the same reasons. Green Bay targets their RBs a lot.
JOHN SHELBROCK [FRANKENMUTH, MI]
A:
First of all, congratulations are in order. It was John Shelbrock, readers, who sent in an e-mail for our last mailbag, pointing out that Chris Johnson appeared to be very good in comparison with the running backs everyone knew would be selected in the first round - McFadden, Stewart, Mendenhall and Felix Jones. Jeff Fisher, apparently, got wind of your e-mail, because he selected Johnson No. 24 overall. Nice call on that one.
As for running backs catching passes, however, I think you may be missing the mark on Ryan Grant. He may look like Dorsey Levens, with his No. 25 jersey and lanky build, but he doesn't catch like him. Grant caught 30 passes last year, but he averaged only 4.8 yards per reception - last for all tailbacks with at least 20 catches. I don't see him turning into another Brian Westbrook or Marshall Faulk. It wouldn't surprise me, in fact, if the Packers pulled him on some third downs. At this point, I suggest you put down Grant for about 35-40 receptions for the 2008 season.
Team totals for running back receptions for 2007:
143 New Orleans
111 Philadelphia
105 Tampa Bay
102 Miami
97 Kansas City
95 Green Bay
89 Oakland
87 Houston
86 Chicago
86 Seattle
85 Baltimore
85 Washington
84 San Francisco
84 St. Louis
83 San Diego
75 Cincinnati
74 Dallas
73 Minnesota
72 Detroit
71 Atlanta
69 Cleveland
64 Arizona
64 NY Giants
64 NY Jets
63 Buffalo
62 New England
61 Carolina
61 Jacksonville
60 Indianapolis
59 Denver
56 Tennessee
55 Pittsburgh
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Question 2: I am in a dynasty...
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | May. 06 at 11:47 AM
I had that draft, and ended up getting Johnson at #9 and then Rice at #11 (I had two first-rounders thanks to an earlier trade). Matt Ryan, Broncos RB Ryan Torain, and one veteran went in the first 11 picks, along with the eight running backs. Ian's probably right not to include Ray Rice there. My fondness for Rice is somewhat of a homer pick, in that he went to the same high school as my wife. Not something you should base your fantasy draft on. If McGahee stays healthy, Rice won't do very much anytime soon. The top 5 were McFadden, Stewart, Forte, Mendenhall, and Smith in that order. I suspect those five will be the players who go first in most dynasty drafts, meaning you might end up choosing one of the two part-timers: Felix Jones or Chris Johnson. If you're not crazy about that scenario, you might want to try to trade up. Then again, if one of the teams just ahead of you owns either Marion Barber or LenDale White, maybe there's a much larger chance they go for Felix Jones or Chris Johnson, rather than Forte or Smith.
Question 4: I have the No. 1...
Posted by paul kuchar | May. 06 at 09:03 AM
Judy, I also hold the #1 overall in my keper league and I would caution against trading McFadden, unless you get a top-three back for him. Maroney is inconsistent and you would do well to add another stud to go with Jackson. Also, unless you start two qb's I would try to move V. Young for a wr instead of the #1 pick. And Quinn? If you have anybody else that even plays you may want to think about dropping Quinn and keeping that other player. Good luck!!
Question 5: I have a question that...
Posted by Miguel Tames | May. 06 at 05:10 PM
Interesting to see the Colts all the way down there in the passes to RB's category. Really surprised that Addai didn't have more than 41 catches last year. With Marvin Harrison out I figured he'd be more involved in the passing game. Other than that great catch and run against New England it never really materialized. I know they want to limit his touches cause he tends to get nicked up a lot but if he's used more in the passing game he'll be top 3 in PPR leagues.
Question 5: I have a question that...
Posted by Miguel Tames | May. 06 at 05:16 PM
Correction on my last post: he was no.3 last year, I just meant closer to LT and Westbrook...sorry