Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Jul. 15 at 04:42 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
In the Philadelphia section on page 188, the writer wrote "McNabb has never been a particularly accurate passer" & just two paragraphs later, the same writer wrote "Andy Reid's aggressive play-calling is a plus." What are you talking about? How can this play-calling be a plus when you just stated McNabb is not an accurate passer? The poor play-calling in the red-zone last year caused the Eages to miss multiple TD opportunities in the red-zone.
A.J. Giuliano [RIDLEY PARK, PA]
A:
I’ll outline the point I was trying to make (and unfortunately, with the limited space in the magazine, I don’t have the luxury of rolling out all of the supporting numbers). In terms of quarterbacking, I think one of the most valuable talents is the ability to quickly and accurately deliver the ball. Particularly around the goal line, a quarterback must decide where to go with the football and then get it there – usually in a fraction of a second. In the NFL, with the super-fast defenders and complex coverages, if a throw is a couple of feet off or a portion of a second early or late, it turns into an incompletion or interception. And in that portion of the game, I don’t think Donovan McNabb is anything special. I think he’s just an average guy. In the last three years, for example, he’s completed only 60 percent of his passes, which ranks 26th of the 43 quarterbacks with at least 500 attempts.
At the same time, however, I don’t believe completion percentage is an accurate gauge of a player’s fantasy value. I’m more interested in how often a quarterback will be throwing the ball – particularly around the goal line. And when it comes down to calling pass plays around the end zone, Andy Reid is arguably the No. 1 coach in the league. In the past three years, for example, the Eagles have passed on a league-high 59 percent of their plays when they’ve been inside the 10. The rest of the league, on average, has passed on only 45 percent of its plays in that area. And the Eagles inside that area have scored a league-high 64 percent of their TDs on pass plays (NFL average: 49 percent).
Bottom line: I like McNabb. On a per game basis, I’m projecting him to be the No. 5 quarterback in the league. It’s only because I have serious doubts about his ability to stay healthy (I’m confident he’ll get hurt) that I haven’t included him among my top 10 quarterbacks overall.
Question 2:
I know you're cool on Julius Jones, and all the reasons you list in the mag are good. I have to tell you, though, I'm intrigued by the upside there...not so much the quality, but the quantity. The Seahawks should give him every opportunity to approach 20 carries per game, and that alone would move him up about 10 spots on your draft board. If, somehow, he was actually productive with those carries, you'd have a steal on your hands. I guess the question is, what do you feel the best case scenario is for J. Jones?
L DALE GANDER [SUN PRAIRIE, WI]
A:
If you make the assumption that Julius Jones is going to carry the ball 20 times per game, then he’ll be fine. But that’s the case with any running back, isn’t it? If you assume 20 carries per game, a mediocre 3.5 yards per carry and 16 games, that works out to 1,120 rushing yards. But I don’t see Jones getting that kind of workload. Of the running backs who started at least half of last year, do you know how many averaged 20 carries per game? Four (Marshawn Lynch, Willie Parker, Clinton Portis and Edgerrin James).
I heard a Mike Holmgren press conference back in May in which he talked about using an extensive committee approach at running back, with Maurice Morris heavily involved and maybe T.J. Duckett carrying at the goal line. That’s the way I expect it to play out. I’m not so sure that Julius Jones is even their best running back. I expect he’ll be long gone in fantasy drafts before I would even consider selecting him.
Question 3:
If ... and it's a big IF ... the Favre saga would send Brett to Minnesota before draft day (end of August), would a man consider drafting AP before LT?
David Allen [LINCOLN, NE]
A:
At this point, I don’t think Favre has any impact on Adrian Peterson (either Adrian Peterson, actually). The odds of Favre playing for the Vikings (or Bears) is so slim, that it’s not even worth considering. And on the off chance that the Packers somehow let Favre go to the Vikings, it might have only a negligible affect on AP. The offense would be a little better, I think, and the dimension of Tarvaris Jackson running for TDs would be removed, but I think you’d also see the Vikings scoring a much higher ratio of their touchdowns on pass plays. The guys I’d be more intrigued by would be Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice.
Question 4:
In your auctions, how do you throw the names out for bid? Do the owners take turns giving names, or do you pull out of a hat? I've never done a football auction, but I did one for hockey, and it was a random drawing of names. Now that involves some skill/brains, as you might never get to bid on someone like LT until the end, so you have to budget during the auction accordingly. Great mag as usual!
SCOTT BRADY [COLLEGEVILLE, PA]
A:
Don’t pull names out of a hat. That creates some dynamics that you don’t want to contend with. Instead, just set an order of the 12 franchise owners (no snaking on even rounds necessary). When it’s your turn, you must begin the bidding on some player. You do not have the option to “pass”. And you also need not open the bidding at the $1 minimum (if you think the player is “worth” $5, for example, you may want to open the bidding at $3, which is the highest price where you feel the player is still a good deal). In the second half of auctions, they become similar to drafts, with the majority of players going for close to the league minimum. So at that point in a draft, there’s added value in being the owner getting to open the bidding. (If you feel that 80 percent of the kickers are worth only $1, for example, you may as well get in an nominate one of those best $1 kickers early – the only way to win a $1 bid on a player is to open the bidding on him).
Question 5:
First off, I love your statistical analysis, it really gives me the highest chance of success in my fantasy leagues. Thanks!! Now to the question... We are trying something new in a FFL this year. Eight participants will be drafting 4 TEAMS each. The lineup of QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, TE, K, and Def and then put together from the four teams each owner drafted. The scoring rules are exactly as listed in your "Fantasy Index PPR" Cheat Sheet. Can you give me a ranking of the teams?
MICHAEL WELLS [GOOD THUNDER, MN]
A:
You sure this is the route you want to go? Somebody in the top 3 gets not only Tom Brady, but also Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Laurence Maroney, Stephen Gostkowski, Benjamin Watson and the New England defense? And one team is going to walk away with Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Anthony Gonzalez and Adam Vinatieri? Nevertheless, here’s how I would rank the teams, one thru 32, in that type of format: Patriots, Cowboys, Colts, Chargers, Saints, Rams, Browns, Eagles, Vikings, Broncos, Bengals, 49ers, Jaguars, Cardinals, Packers, Panthers, Texans, Ravens, Washington, Kansas City, Bills, Giants, Jets, Lions, Seahawks, Steelers, Dolphins, Falcons, Bears, Raiders, Buccaneers, Titans.
Question 6:
Keeper league - need to pick S.Smith, L.Fitzgerald, Palmer or Winslow. Who would you keep? It's a PPR League - I am leaning towards S.Smith - what do you think ?
PHIL SCARCELLA [PALM COAST, FL]
A:
I’ll go with Steve Smith, but not by much. As I noted earlier in the week on the website, I think Smith will be helped this year by better quarterbacking. But Fitzgerald also is definitely a top receiver, and he’s four years younger.
Question 7:
I can save 3. I have Peyton Manning, Marion Barber, Steve Smith and T.O. I'm locked into Peyton (QB heavy scoring league) and obviously Barber now with no Julius, but which receiver? T.O. has been a monster, but with Delhomme, so has Smith. As an aside, I can probably trade T.O. easier to the team that has Romo for a 1st round pick.(36 players protected).
RICK [CHARLOTTE, NC]
A:
If you think you can trade Owens, then let’s just go that route. Smith might be better than him anyway, and he’s five and half years younger.
Question 8:
Ian, we are trying something new this year ... running with a QB, WR, WR, RB, RB, WR/TE, WR/RB, Def, K, and only 2 bench players. What kind of problems could arise with this format, and is there a position more favored?
BRYAN TREADWAY [HOUSTON, TX]
A:
That system should work fine. There are few backup players, which should guarantee a lively waiver wire each week. But why discriminate against tight ends? I think you should also have a position that is a true tight end (only a tight end), and at worst allow teams to start tight ends at either of their flex positions.
Readers' Comments
Add a Comment
Already a registered user? Please sign in to add comments.
To add comments, you must become a registered user of our site. To register, please click here.
Question 5: First off, I love your...
Posted by Paul Owers | Jul. 15 at 05:26 AM
Ian, on first glance I'm stunned that the Titans, a playoff team a year ago, would be dead last in your rankings, below such dregs as the Falcons and Dolphins. But now that I think of it, I'm not dying to have any Titans on my team this year. The rookie, Chris Johnson, might be decent, but that offense is terribly bland.