Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Jul. 22 at 07:13 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
Brees vs Burress? I am having a very difficult time deciding on who to protect in a keeper league. 14 team league. I have never asked advice before in 15 years of play and you are the only guy I would ever think of asking.
David McCance [Kingston, ON]
A:
Brees is higher on my draft board, so my guess is he’ll be the guy. But we can pull out some numbers and double-check it. You’re in a 14-team league, so you’re getting up to the point where scarcity will set in for quarterbacks (though there also will be more demand for wide receivers). If you compare Brees to the #14 quarterback in your league (the worst projected starter), the difference is 83 fantasy points. If you compare Burress to the #28 wide receiver (the worst projected starter), the difference is 17 points. Advantage Brees. If you assume you’re instead starting three receivers and compare Burress to wide receiver #42, the difference is 53 points. If you go with more of a depth-oriented look at compare Brees to the worst backup quarterback (#28) and Burress to the worst backup wide receiver (#56 or #84) the numbers still work in favor of Brees. The general consensus that most fantasy leaguers use (without ever looking into any numbers) is to go with Running backs over wide receivers and wide receivers over quarterbacks. But in this case, I think the quarterback is the way to go.
Question 2:
I sure hope you're right about Julius Jones because I would love to snag him in the 5th round, which for my league is where your projection places him. Based on your strength of schedule analysis, Seattle has a relatively soft schedule. I know you could do this all day long, but if you take New England off their schedule, they have the second easiest schedule this year. And let me get this straight, you think Seattle gave him over $5 million guaranteed to come in and play committee with Duckett and Morris? I just don't buy it. Seattle should at least go 9-7 and I can't see their #1 RB being rated #33. Can you please give me a more thorough explanation so I don't draft a dud?
Jered Ottenwess [NEWBERRY, FL]
A:
You’re drafting guys based on their contract size now? Your starting receivers, I assume, will be Javon Walker and Jerry Porter? Both of those guys signed big contracts. I heard Mike Holmgren explain how he intends to go with more of a committee approach at tailback this year, with Jones, Maurice Morris and T.J. Duckett sharing time. I believe Holmgren. Plus, I don’t think Jones is a big-time player – otherwise, the Cowboys would have been interested in re-signing him. I won’t be drafting Jones in any of my leagues.
Question 3:
I am picking second in a ten team league this year. I have done a few mocks and am having trouble deciding whether to go with another RB or a higher level WR. The WRs that have been available in the mocks are Braylon Edwards, Colston and Andre Johnson. Would a WR of their caliber be more valuable than a RB like McGahee, Ryan Grant, MJD or Jamal Lewis in a standard scoring format?
Mike Koffski [CHICAGO]
A:
I’m not sure I understand the question. You’re talking about the end of the second round, right? According to my draft board, probably the best value at the end of the second round will be a wide receiver. After the first 14 picks, I’ve got 10 of the next 16 players on my overall board being wide receivers. So your choice at the end of the wall will be to try to follow the herd – selecting a running back who’s not worth a top-20 pick, just because everyone else is doing it – or to select a wide receiver. When you crunch the numbers, the computer says you should take a wide receiver there.
Question 4:
OK, it’s official. Shockey is a Saint (pun intended). How much of a bump do you see in Shockey's value with the pass-happy Saints? Looking at your update he ranks at #12 on the yardage list.
Edward Oliver [CHAUMONT, NY]
A:
It’s definitely going to help him. I just finished putting together a detailed analysis of Shockey that will be the showcase item of the update that goes out on Monday morning. He’ll move up in the rankings.
Question 5:
Just got the magazine in the mail and once again you guys have delivered a quality product. I noticed a question from one of the readers on page 10. I like Mr. Witt's suggestion. Here's another option that we employ in our league. In a 12-team league, the top 6 teams make the playoffs. The two division winners get first-round byes. One of the 4 remaining slots goes to the team that scores the most points during the season (if that's not one of the teams that won their division). The other spots are taken up by the teams with the next best records.
Troy Hopper [Moorestown, NJ]
A:
Sounds good. That should work – though I’ll bet that its rare that the highest-scoring team didn’t finish with one of the six best records.
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Question 1: Brees vs Burress? I am...
Posted by BEN RUHALA | Jul. 23 at 11:12 AM
Strength of schedule was discussed at length in the magazine. Is there any further discussion on the best/worst strength of scheduels for two teams? This would aid in drafting your back-ups (Kickers, Defense, Quaterback). For instance if St. Louis and Tennessee's schedules combined are the most compatibale then in it might be worth looking at Vince Young as a back-up if you drafted Marc Bulger, etc.
Question 1: Brees vs Burress? I am...
Posted by David Grace | Jul. 24 at 07:53 AM
I don't think Shockey will be a big hit to Colston's value. He may get fewer looks but he'll also get a lot more single coverage so I expect he'll do more with the looks he gets. The same can be said of Bush, who I think will find himself isolated on a LB more than he has been in the past. All that being said, the big winner should be Brees. I think he could challenge Brady as QB 1 now.
Question 2: I sure hope you're right...
Posted by Richard Loppnow | Jul. 22 at 09:25 AM
Contract size is a pretty darn good barometer of how many chances a player will get, or how big a one. If Julius puts up a few stinkers, rather than burying him they'll work with him to try to tease out whatever it is they thought they saw in the first place. Was Julius' contract actually all that sizeable, though?
Question 2: I sure hope you're right...
Posted by BILL REHOR | Jul. 24 at 02:14 PM
"Contract size is a pretty darn good barometer of how many chances a player will get, or how big a one"??? Mr. Loppnow, meet Brandon Lloyd, your new starting receiver.
Question 3: I am picking second in...
Posted by Craig Rinne | Jul. 22 at 06:31 PM
Ian's answer makes sense--except that if Mike's mocks hold up, Jones-Drew might be available. Picking 2nd/19th, who wouldn't want A.D. or S Jax plus MJD instead of one of those WRs? Or even roll on Grant?
Question 4: OK, it’s official. Shockey is...
Posted by David Allen | Jul. 22 at 08:42 AM
Forget Shockey's bump in value, what's it going to decrease Colston's value?
Question 4: OK, it’s official. Shockey is...
Posted by David Allen | Jul. 22 at 08:43 AM
Forget Shockey's bump in value, how is ir going to decrease Colston's value?
Question 4: OK, it’s official. Shockey is...
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Jul. 22 at 08:54 AM
I agree that it will decrease Colston's value. Last year inside the 5, Colston had a league-high 12 passes thrown his way. 12 of the team's 21 pass attempts. And the Saints threw just 6 passes down there to tight ends. I think Shockey will see more passes in that part of the field than Eric Johnson and Billy Miller did.
Question 4: OK, it’s official. Shockey is...
Posted by Giovanni Alessi | Jul. 22 at 01:54 PM
This will help Burress's value.
Question 4: OK, it’s official. Shockey is...
Posted by greg ott | Jul. 22 at 03:23 PM
Value adjustments: Colston Value Down, Burress up, Bush Down with another safety outlet in the lineup, but the big winner is.... Kevin Boss-The Giants apparently believe in him, Manning already has a rapport with him and they use the TE as a part of the offense.
Question 4: OK, it’s official. Shockey is...
Posted by David Grace | Jul. 24 at 07:54 AM
I don't think Shockey will be a big hit to Colston's value. He may get fewer looks but he'll also get a lot more single coverage so I expect he'll do more with the looks he gets. The same can be said of Bush, who I think will find himself isolated on a LB more than he has been in the past. All that being said, the big winner should be Brees. I think he could challenge Brady as QB 1 now.