Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 04 at 08:26 PM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
In the magazine, you wrote that drafting both R. Brown and R. Williams wouldn't be a bad idea. But in what rounds of a 10-team draft would you target them? Brown's value is unclear, at least to me, because he's coming off the knee injury. As we all know, RBs rehabbing bum knees usually need a full season before they're back to their old selves. Meanwhile, Williams looks terrific in training camp so far. What are the chances that Ricky has one more decent fantasy season in him?
Paul Owers [RIVIERA BEACH, FL]
A:
Now hold on. My ears perk up anytime somebody tosses a phrase like, "As we all know, RBs rehabbing bum knees usually need a full season before they're back to their old selves". Makes it sound as if Ronnie Brown shouldn't even bother showing up this season. According to my notes, I've got five running backs who went for over 1,000 yards the year after a reconstructive ACL surgery -- Curt Warner (1985), Terry Allen (1994), Jamal Anderson (2000), Jamal Lewis (2002) and Deuce McAllister (2006). And Edgerrin James finished 11 yards short in 2002. So let's not be too quick to discard Ronnie Brown. He's still working his way back, trying to regain his confidence, but he could still be the team's leading rusher. I'm not promising that he will be, but it's possible. For now, I expect to see these backs splitting time -- meaning neither one of them will put up good stats. If you draft those guys, what you're quietly hoping for is an injury -- Brown or Williams goes down, then the other guy gets a bigger workload and maybe can do something. Keep in mind, however, that we're talking about a team that's going to win 4-5 games.
Question 2:
Your new customized Cheat Sheet Auction Values further separates your service from all of the others. My auction league plays 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 PK, and 1 D. We draft 15 players and spend $200. We can keep two players, and that's where I have a question. I will keep Tony Romo, who will cost me $10 compared to a calculated value of $50. I have to decide between Peyton Manning, who will cost me $52 compared to a calculated value of $55, and Brian Westbrook, who will cost me $22 compared to a calculated value of $31. Who do you think I should keep?
ROBERT LINDMEIER [OREGON, WI]
A:
You definitely keep Westbrook. You wouldn't buy Manning for $52. He's worth $55, so there's only $3 of added value there. If you purchased all of your players at that rate, your team would be worth only $211 at the end of the auction. That's not good enough. If you instead buy Westbrook, you're getting $9 of added value, and it's costing you only $22 to get it. If you bought a roster of Westbrook-value players, your team would be worth $282 at the end -- that's more like what we're shooting for.
Question 3:
I spent some time with the auction calculator, using our league's historical data. Just an observation. Based on your numbers, we systematically overvalue the top picks at each position and undervalue the mid/low level guys. That's a tricky position to try and leverage. It's nerve-racking to let top players go and try and build value with lesser guys. Anway, just an observation. My guess is many auctions probably do what ours does.
Tom Duggan [CALIFON, N.J.]
A:
The auction concept is still relatively new. I would guess that in the vast majority of auctions, there are a bunch of guys who have no idea what they're doing. It's not easy figuring out what players are worth, and it's not easy implementing whatever plan you come up with. You've got to be ready to react to what the other owners are doing. If everyone is overspending on the big-name players, you have to be prepared to put together a balanced roster with no franchise guys -- but at the same time be careful not to be too cautious with your bidding, potentially ending the auction with unused money at the end. I can see that you're starting to piece things together. I imagine you'll put together a solid roster at your auction this season.
Question 4:
While looking at the 2008 Stat projections, I noticed that you have Jacob Hester (ranked #72) slotted to start 1 game, but to run for 1,232 yards and score around 13 TDs scoring a whopping 225 points ... am I misinterpreting your projection sheet?
Tim Rudnick [STRONGSVILLE, OH]
A:
The stat projection file comes with three different tabs. One ("per game") shows how we think each player would do as a starting, featured player. Another (which I've just retitled to "16 games") shows how players would do if they were to start for a full season -- it's the per-game numbers multiplied by 16. That's the one that you're looking at when you're wondering why Hester is projected at 13 games. And the third tab (titled "2008 proj - season") is the one you're probably looking for. It shows the projected season total, when you balance each guy's per-game projection versus the likelihood of how many games he'll play. For that set of data, guys like Hester are credited for the games they will start, plus they get the stats that they'll accrue each week in a reserve role.
Question 5:
In your latest Cheat Sheet (08-04), you have Willis McGahee ranked as the #7 RB (yardage leagues) and Marion Barber ranked as the #8 RB. In the Overall Top 35, though, Barber appears at #13, while McGahee comes in at #16. What gives?
PAUL KONCZAL [SAINT JOSEPH, MI]
A:
That one's on me. I was just finishing putting the product together and did some last-minute dinking around with the rankings -- decided to move Barber ahead of McGahee in the one (main) format -- and I missed correcting one of the lists. The way we've got our system set up now, it's foolishly risky to even try that kind of maneuver anymore. There are simply too many lists, formats, products and scoring systems that are intertwined. By my count, on Monday, we released 35 different lists (multiple scoring systems in fax, mail, web, e-mail, custom, custom auction) in which Barber and McGahee were compared (it would be 19 for lesser running backs, but these guys are both in all of the "overalls" as well). I believe McGahee was in the wrong spot on 4 of those 35 lists.
Question 6:
Looking at general rankings (td-only format), I think I've noticed a pattern: you have almost as good a shot of landing a solid RB if you draft one ranked by most experts in the teens as you do by drafting one of the top ten. Last year, for example, most "top ten" lists included: Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Frank Gore, Rudi Johnson, Travis Henry. From a td-only perspective, the only real "hits" in the top ten were L. T. and Addai. But ranked in the teens by many experts were some very respectable backs for td-only, including Marion Barber, Clinton Portis, Marshawn Lynch, Maurice Jones-Drew, Willis McGahee. In fact, there were almost as many running back "studs" among players commonly ranked in the twenties last year (Adrian Peterson, Jamal Lewis) as there were among the top ten. The conclusion (especially if you eliminate L. T. from consideration): drafting running backs is a crap shoot. Early in drafts, go for a position where the "hit" rate is higher, including qb. Last year, for example, the Index's top five list for qbs included studs like Brady, Manning, Brees, and Romo. And for receivers, your chances of landing a respectable one for td-only seem to decline logically (about a fifty-fifty chance in the top ten, about one in three in the second ten, about one in five in the third ten ...). Should td-only drafters therefore focus heavily on running backs AFTER the first two rounds? Load up on rbs ranked in the teens?
ROBERT ALLEN [NACOGDOCHES, TX]
A:
You make some good observations, and it’s something I should make more of an effort to look into. The bust rate definitely is higher at running back (regardless of scoring system). Those guys tend to get hurt more often, because of the tremendous beating they take. As much as we would all love to begin our draft by selecting two blue-chip running backs, it’s extremely rare to be able to actually execute that strategy. Invariably, one (or two) of those running backs gets hurt or simply underachieves. I don’t have the time to adequately explore this issue today, but I believe the odds are much better at wide receiver. There are only a handful of elite wide receivers – guys who can be counted on to catch 85-plus passes and 9-plus TDs – and those players tend to be reliable. Terrell Owens, Braylon Edwards, Andre Johnson, Marques Colston. Those guys are good; and much more so than running backs, they’ll go out this year and do what they’re supposed to do. Particularly when you’re between picks 10 and 25 in a draft, I think the better strategy is to invest in that kind of wide receiver, rather than hoping to hit it big with a second-tier running back. (Quarterbacks are kind of a different deal, since most fantasy leagues select only half as many of them).
Question 7:
Many readers always ask you "what's the best draft position for a league of X size..." The answer always invariably seems to be, the higher the draft position the better. So here's how it relates to our drauction. 16-team league, each team gets $100 to spend for 4 players before we revert to straight draft. My concern is that the top 10 consensus players are going to end up going for waaay more $$ than they should. Now I understand the goal is to get "good value", but by bowing out of the bidding of, say, the top 10 players (however ridiculous the bidding may be), aren't I in effect putting myself in the same position as having, for example, the #12 or so draft slot, which as we established earlier, is not nearly as desirable as one of the top picks? In other words, if the bidding is going to be extravagant for the top 10 or so players, shouldn't I jump in nonetheless to make sure I get a stud, or should I lay back and hope to get maybe 3 players slotted in the 12-24 range of overall rankings? For whatever reason, I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around this one, and being our first year dabbling in auctioning after 20 years of straight drafts, I'm sure some guys are going to throw a wrench in my plans, and I want to be prepared to "zig" if they "zag."
Matt Tinker [ORLEANS, VT]
A:
We've got that new auction deal now (I did mention that, right?). And it’s actually set up so that you can use it on Drauctions as well. Should take you about 5 minutes to set it up to for your league’s scoring system and parameters. For a traditional scoring system, I punched in some numbers. I figured that maybe your group of 16 would purchase 14 quarterbacks, 25 running backs, 20 wide receivers and 5 tight ends. If you go that route, than the computer tells me that two players will be worth more than the entire salary cap – Tomlinson at $159 and Brady at $115. So I would advise you to quietly hem and haw through the bidding and try to walk away with Tomlinson with pretty much whatever it takes. If you pay $97 for Tomlinson, for example, you’re probably still going to get three other players in your top 55. That’s a pretty good team. To make a drauction work properly, you’ve got to go a little deeper – let each team buy six players instead of four. That way, there’s more of a penalty for blowing the wad on a franchise guy. This issue is not related, by the way, to the issue of draft position. If you were to hang back and buy players ranked 12th, 16th and 24th on your board, that would be an outstanding nucleus. But that isn’t going to happen. After Tomlinson, Brady and Peterson go for big bucks, there will still be 13 owners with empty checkbooks, and those players on that second tier will still get lots of attention in the bidding.
Question 8:
I'm in a 12 team league and have the #1 pick. Start 1 QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, TE, K, D plus one bonus QB/RB/WR. QBs get 6 pts/TD instead of the usual 4, so it's very advantageous to start 2 QBs and basically every team does. Conventional wisdom says to take a RB at the top spot but I can't help but consider Brady there, especially at 6 pts/TD pass and with starting 2 QBs. There should still be a decent (but not stud) starting RB available at 24/25. Brady likely won't be able to repeat last year but even at 75-80% of that production should still lead all scorers in this league. Your thoughts on this - Brady or a RB?
A.J. Bindl [MADISON, WI]
A:
I'd go with Brady, and I don't think it's even close. With the flex rule in your league, allowing teams to start two quarterbacks, it creates more of a level playing field for the quarterback (versus tailback) position. And you're also adding in the bonus of 6 points for TD passes. I think Brady has an excellent chance to throw 35-plus TD passes this year, and that makes him the clear pick there, in my opinion. Far more likely that LaDainian Tomlinson to stay healthy. If pick 24 comes around and Drew Brees or Tony Romo is still on the board, I'd run that card to the commissioner as well.
Question 9:
Love your mailbag. I read it everytime for your input. Quick question. I have the 5th pick overall in a dynasty league. I think it safe to assume that McFadden, Mendenhall, Forte, and Stewart will be off the board when I draft due to rookie RB's going first. Do I take Kevin Smith RB- Lions or do I take a chance on another rookie RB (Felix Jones, Chris Johnson, Ryan Torain)?
BILL GALLAGHER [LANCASTER, NY]
A:
As of today, I'd take Smith. But you'll have a lot more information, I imagine, when it comes time to actually make that decision. Maybe Johnson or Jones will really knock everyone's socks off with a big preseason game, or Torain will by then have won a starting job in Denver.
Question 10:
In a 12 team auction league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex, 1 D, 1 K what is a fair price for Steve Smith now that he has been suspended for the first 2 games of the season?
JAYMIE GRUIS [SAINT PAUL, MN]
A:
His value definitely decreases. He's gone for an eighth of the season. So I think you'll see him showing up at 10th to 15th among receivers, depending on your scoring system. The winners in this suspension deal appear to be the Chargers. They were supposed to get Smith and Brandon Marshall in their first two games. Now it looks like they're not going to get either.
Question 11:
I play in a league that gives points for Kick and punt return yards as follows:
kryds- .125 pts per yard
pryds- .165 pts per yard.
It's a league that includes IDP's where we start 2 dl, 3 lb's, and 2 db's. Last year I picked up Ellis Hobbs off the waiver wire when I saw he was going to be returning kicks for the Patriots. He ended up finishing 3rd in the league in scoring for db's. So, my question is, could you provide a list of db's that are likely to be their teams kick returners this year. Also, this information seems to be hard to come by when I go looking for it. Do you post it in any of your updates or online anywhere?
Cole Houchens [SPOKANE, WA]
A:
I'm not in a league with individual defensive players, so it's not something I track as closely. Looking at the stats from last year, I see that there were 11 players who either returned 20-plus kickoffs or more than 10 punts:
Allen Rossum, Pitt.
Charles Woodson, G.B.
Chris Carr, Oak.
Dexter Wynn, Hou.
Ellis Hobbs, N.E.
J.R. Reed, Phil.
Philip Buchanon, T.B.
R.W. McQuarters, NYG
T.J. Rushing, Ind. (both KO & punts)
Terrence McGee, Buff.
Tramon Williams, G.B.
The Titans signed Carr to a free-agent deal; I believe he'll be their main return guy. In the game last night, I saw the Colts used Rushing last night as their first-team guy on kickoffs and punts.
Readers' Comments
Add a Comment
Already a registered user? Please sign in to add comments.
To add comments, you must become a registered user of our site. To register, please click here.
Question 1: In the magazine, you wrote...
Posted by Paul Owers | Aug. 05 at 05:11 AM
I understand what you're saying, Ian. But I would argue that a list of five running backs who rushed for 1,000 yards after reconstructive knee surgery is not a very long list at all and serves to further prove the point that many backs need a full year to recover. Also, with all due respect, you didn't answer my question: in what rounds would you target Brown and Williams?
Question 1: In the magazine, you wrote...
Posted by Adam MacDonald | Aug. 06 at 03:42 PM
Fair enough. Some guys always buck the trend. But what is the percentage of 1000 yard guys to knee reconstruction guys?
Question 2: Your new customized Cheat Sheet...
Posted by David Grace | Aug. 06 at 04:26 PM
The other reason to keep Westbrook is it gives you more flexibility in the auction. If you have both your starters at a position you can't afford to put your resources into a third player at that position even if you think they represent value at the price they are going for. You'd hate to miss out on a bargain priced Drew Brees, for example, because you already have $62 invested in Manning and Romo.
Question 3: I spent some time with...
Posted by BRYAN BERTSCH | Aug. 05 at 03:38 AM
That's exactly what happens in our auction. My idea is to overpay on my top guy (say LT or Adrian Peterson)as long as that is what the market is calling for and then let my preparations get me the rest of my roster at better values. Otherwise, you end up with no top player, which is a complete failure in my eyes. I also look as if we are drafting and make sure I get at least 4 players in the top 36 (we have a 9 team league and I want to have a player in each of the first 4 rounds as if drafting.) What usually happens is I "over-spend" on the top player and still end up with 5 or more in the top 36, and sometimes even get two in the top 9, meaning I am able to essentially get the top player AND a second 1st round pick. And if I can do that, the rest can be managed during the season, no problem. My learning curve has been to be precise will values - but always flexible...especially if you know your leagues tendencies.
Question 3: I spent some time with...
Posted by Trevor Sharp | Aug. 05 at 09:22 AM
I completely agree with Bryan B's comment. I tend to concentrate on getting too many values and then shy away from the high money studs. For example, last year my team was valued at ~150% of the cap but after post-auction analysis I found that I didn't have a player that would be considered a first-round pick. I had multiple second, third and fourth round guys however I my team ended up being balanced but mediocre. I considered my auction to be a failure and missed the playoffs by one game.
Question 4: While looking at the 2008...
Posted by Jr. Ayers | Aug. 06 at 02:39 AM
Dave: Jacob Hester is a rooking RB from LSU who is currently penciled in as the primary back-up to LT. He is a wrecking ball, with a tough inside running style. He was instrumental in last year's 28-24 Tigers win over Florida, in that he converted 3rd and 4th down runs, up the gut, time and again on the last couple of drives.
Question 7: Many readers always ask you...
Posted by MICHAEL ROPER | Aug. 04 at 09:41 PM
I have an answer for Matt and a question for Ian from this question. Matt- Now, granted in my league teams are not guarenteed to come out of our drauction with a predetermined # of players, so my expierence may end up as different then yours, but I would say no, based on the way it's set up, I wouldn't expect there to be much of a correlation between the best draft position and drauction results. Obviously in a snake draft, if we're saying you get the #16 pick (in a 16 team league) then it's assumed you're also getting the #17, #48 and #49 picks. However if you avoid spending money on one of the big time guys, you may end up coming out of the drauction with the 16th, 19th, 22nd and 24th best guys. Or something like that. My expierence with Drauctions in our league is that the rosters are frequently more even then snake drafts allow them to be. Ian- I don't know if Matt's league is the norm or if mine is, but it seems like we differ in how we set up the drauction. Matt alluded to the fact that they each get 4 players in their drauction where as in my league we auction off 3 rounds worth of players and some teams end up with 2 and others with 5. I feel that makes things more fair in that if you're willing to spend your entire $100 to get LT, you're coming out of the auction with only 1 of the top 36 players. Is your auction calculator set up for a league like Matt's where guys are likely to go for $1 or a league like mine where we've never had a guy go for less then $12 in 3 years?
Question 8: I'm in a 12 team...
Posted by Bill Petilli | Aug. 05 at 06:12 AM
keeper league and get to keep 2 players. I have to choose between Westbrook, Gore, Lynch, Andre Johnson and Derek Anderson. I'm assuming Westbrook is a no brainer but the league lineup consist of 1qb, 1rb, 2wr, 1te, 1d, 1k and 2 Flex and the flex can be any position player which throws a twist into this. I was leaning toward Gore as the 2nd but should I keep any of the other guys instead?