Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 08 at 01:51 PM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I'm considering a ridiculous strategy. Assuming that the suspensions to Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall drop their average draft positions could a person fill other needs, draft those two guys a round or two later, eat the first few games and then reap the rewards as they outperform their draft position on a per game basis? The caveat is that you might not still be out of the woods with these guys ... I won a league a few years ago because Smith was thrown out of a game during our championship weekend.
Brian Grzybowski [RICHMOND, VA]
A:
Those guys still have substantial value. Without the suspensions, they might both have caught 100-plus balls. And I don't see it as particularly tough to replace those players for two weeks. We're talking about the first two weeks of the season, when no NFL teams have byes, and pretty much everyone is healthy.
Question 2:
In a recent article you stated that if a league rewards 6 pts for a TD pass, then the numbers dictate that you would pick the early QBs at positions 2,3,6,7. I currently have the 3rd pick, but as many times as I go over it, I can't seem to justify picking Brady 3rd, because when it gets back to me there isn't that RB that I am enamored with. I am thinking of trading with the person selecting 9th, so I can get a better bargain at the far end.
Tod Denison [BAKERSFIELD, CA]
A:
I'd have a hard time passing on Brady in that kind of format. According to my stat projections (which include Brady throwing 37 TD passes), the move down from 3 to 9 is going to cost you about 110 fantasy points. And you're going to get only about 20 of those points back in the second round.
Question 3:
You often note the correlation between winning and RB performance. And it makes sense -- winning teams tend to score more and also tend to be ahead and running out the clock. Is there any factor similarly correlated with fantasy production in the passing game?
Robert Stolz [RALEIGH, NC]
A:
It's not nearly as strong. In wins (versus losses), you tend to see teams rushing for 40-50 more yards per game and scoring about twice as many rushing touchdowns. Last year, for example, there was a difference of 135-87 rushing yards per game and 1.07 to .44 TD runs per game. The previous year, it was 138-100 in rushing yards and 1.03 to .55 in rushing TDs. For passing production, the numbers were skewed a little bit last year by the Patriots, so I'll give you just the 2006 numbers. Teams actually averaged slightly more yards in defeats (222-215), while winning teams came out a half TD pass ahead (1.53-1.02). So overall, just an 8 percent improvement in wins versus losses in passing production in 2006.
Question 4:
I have happily relied on Fantasy Index for 11 years. This year, I have the 4th pick in a twelve team league that starts 2 QBs. Assuming Brady, LT, and Peterson are not available, should I take Manning over one of the remaining top RBs?
Jeremy Kaufman [Los Angeles, CA]
A:
No. You might be able to push around the numbers and make a case to take Manning there -- it might make sense in a league with 12 computers competing against each other. But my guess is that Brees or Romo will be available at pick 21. If you can get one of those guys at 21, then you definitely don't want Manning at 4.
Question 5:
I really like the new custom rankings/auction values tool. My league gives double points for yardage/tds out of position. For example double for RB's receiving or throwing, QB's running or receiving, etc. Anyway you guys could add an option for this. It has a large effect on the RBs and some QBs. Typically, I've been going in and monkeying with the excel spreadsheet in the past, but it'd be nice to save time.
Andy Jury [MESA, AZ]
A:
The work on that portion of the game is already underway -- for both the custom-scoring deal and the auction-value generator (we've got those two items linked). I've spent considerable time researching that portion of the game and assigning grades (player types) to all of the different players, charting that the likelihoods of the range their scores will come from. I imagine that will be a standard part of those product lines for the 2009 season.
Question 6:
Brees or Romo? They are QBs 3/4 or 4/3 everywhere you look. I am leaning towards Brees, even though Romo threw a ton of touchdowns last year, and for this reason: I think Romo's fortunes are far too dependent on 35 year old TO's health. Brees, with a number of serviceable receivers and Reggie Bush on his team, seems more likely to plug along if any one of his targets gets hurt. Do you see this as a real difference and, if not, how would you choose?
Robert Stolz [RALEIGH, NC]
A:
I'll go along with that. Brees is also almost impossible to sack -- he gets rid of the ball real quickly -- and doesn't run at all, so I see him as very unlikely to get hurt.
Question 7:
I am in a 2 player keeper league. whoever we keep, we lose the round they were picked in. i have LT, no brainer. i have randy moss for a 5th or ryan grant for a 10th(we use a formula for undrafted waiver wire pickups to determine what round we give up). while many would say grant is a no brainer also i disagree. here's why: if i keep grant, i have no shot at getting moss. the top wr always goes in the 1st to someone who got at least one top rb and doesnt have to give up a 1st for him. if i keep moss, i have an outside shot at getting grant or 1 of the 3-4 rbs just like him depending on where i pick. people with lesser fantasy minds have laughed at me for leaning 98% towards moss b/c it means giving up one of the few full time backs for a 10th, but they arent looking at the big picture. what do you think?
Troy Smith [TICKFAW, LA]
A:
I'd lean towards Moss. According to my stat projections, he's about 55 points more valuable than Grant. If you look at the difference between the player you'd select in the 5th round, versus what you would get in the 10th round, the difference isn't quite as severe -- probably about 40 points in difference.
Question 8:
Hey Ian, with Favre going to the Jets, how far up do you bump Thomas Jones on your draft board? Also, do you think there is a possibility that the Jets turn around and trade Favre to the Vikes?
Mike Koffski [CHICAGO, IL]
A:
I don't think Favre will help Jones. I expect New York to finish with more passing yards and passing touchdowns, but I don't think his addition will do much of anything for their running game -- he might even hurt it. As for the Vikings, I believe there are poison-pill clauses in this trade that prevent the Jets from trading him to any team in the NFC North.
Question 9:
I'm thinking of Drafting BOTH Leinart and Warner as my 2 QB's in a 14 Team Seasonal Draft. Whoever starts, I have the QB on a, I think, Prolific Passing Team. Bye week, week 7, I may need to play w/o a QB or drop/add. This way I can draft RB's and WR's, we pick 3 and start 2 each, in the first 6 rounds. All TD's are 6 pts with Distance Bonus. Good Idea?
mark cote [GILBERT, AZ]
A:
That should work. By the time week 7 rolls around, I imagine you'll be able to dig up a second quarterback to plug in. If you look back at week 7 from last year, I think you'll see a lot of quarterbacks who weren't drafted in your league that were starters that week -- Byron Leftwich, Damon Huard, Kurt Warner, Cleo Lemon, Kyle Boller, Trent Edwards, Trent Dilfer, Kerry Collins and Brian Griese.
Question 10:
Steven Jackson's holdout is now reaching a point where it may affect his regular season performance. Specifically thinking back to how Larry Johnson performed last year. Could you come up with a breakdown of when his value might drop and how far? (i.e. if he's still holding out in 10 days, drop him a slot or two, if in 15 days drop him further)
NICK FRITZ [MINNEAPOLIS, MN]
A:
If he's still a holdout on the eve of the Rams' season opener, I think you'd have to drop him to about 15th to 20th among running backs. Right now, he's at the point where he's just starting to drop in value. As far as coming up with a mathematical equation that charts the line between those two points, I'm not sure.
Question 11:
I'm in a 12 team league where QB's get 6 points per TD. My draft position is 9th and I suspect Brady & Manning will be gone (along with the top 5 backs & Moss). It's rough weighing QB3 v WR2 v RB6. I'm seriously considering Romo there. Is it too early?
Steve Kradas [PLANTSVILLE, CT]
A:
At 6 points for a TD pass, I'd definitely want to select either Brees or Romo. The chess/poker game will be determining whether you can get either of those guys at pick 2.04 rather than 1.09. I'd probably weenie out and select the quarterback in the first round.
Question 12:
My question centers around a potential trade of Ryan Grant & Brandon Jackson for Willis McGhee & Ray Rice. Right now I am really in favor of this trade for one reason. With Cam Cameron now the offensive co ordinator in Baltimore, the pass targets should really increase. We have talked about Grant in the past in that he isn't a very good receiver. If we looked at what Cameron did in SD for Tomlinson and the year that Ronnie Brown had in Miami, then I think this trade looks really good for me. Plus, I love Ray Rice based on the You tube film I've seen. He I think can be a everydown back if McGhee gets hurt. Thanks.
JOHN SHELBROCK [FRANKENMUTH, MI]
A:
Sounds like you've got it pretty well scouted. Cam Cameron definitely will heavily feature his tailback in the passing game. I don't think Ronnie Brown is a dynamite receiver (he's good, but he's not Brian Westbrook or Marshall Faulk), and he caught 39 passes in seven games last year before getting hurt.
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Question 1: I'm considering a ridiculous strategy....
Posted by Duane Stay | Aug. 08 at 08:54 PM
Ian, I recently took a chance pick on Courtney Taylor in my Dynasty league. I just got done watching the Seahawks dismantle the Vikings and Courtney Taylor was no where to be found. Have I made a mistake or is this just preseason?
Question 1: I'm considering a ridiculous strategy....
Posted by Jr. Ayers | Aug. 09 at 08:52 AM
Ian, you've been busted! In Question 1, you tell the guy to wait on Brees/Romo at 2.10. However, in question 11, in a league with the same set up, you tell the guy he may not get Brees or Romo with 2.03 even. Do I win a free prize?
Question 1: I'm considering a ridiculous strategy....
Posted by Rob Dammers | Aug. 10 at 01:48 PM
Steve Smith catching 100+ balls in 2008? not a chance..throwing out his two worst seasons ( 2001 and 2004 ), Smith has averaged just 83/1142/7 per season.. Only once in his career has he caught MORE than 88 balls in a single season, and only once in his career has he caught MORE than 8 tds in a single season. Smith has missed 19 games since 2002, and now he's already going to miss two games for non-injury related issues. Smith is almost guaranteed to miss another two games from injury. Delhomme is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Delhomme and Smith, combined,have missed 34 games over the past 4 seasons.. using Smith's career stat line against the 2007 season, 13 different WR's caught 83 or more balls, 13 different WR's recorded 1142 or more yards, and 16 WR's caught 7 or more tds..in other words, Smith is one of the most overrated Wr's in the NFL. Derrick Mason has a better career stat-line than Smith does, for instance..
Question 4: I have happily relied on...
Posted by Robert Heater | Aug. 08 at 11:25 PM
No way Romo or Brees fall to the 21 spot in any competent 12 team 2 QB league. If you want to ensure you snag a good QB then trading down wouldn't be a bad idea. At 9 you could possibly get a steal in Manning, or take the value RB that falls and then grab Romo or Brees at 16. Either way, in a 2 QB league grabbing a top QB is a priority especially with a lot of uncertainty at the RB position this year and many QB questions after 4.
Question 4: I have happily relied on...
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Aug. 09 at 08:53 AM
I slipped on this question. Had a lot of letters to go through -- about 30 -- and glossed over that it's a 2-QB league. I would expect all four of those top QBs to go in the first round in that format. So you'd need to either select Manning or trade down in the round if you wanted to take one of the other QBs (or maybe Manning a few spots later).
Question 4: I have happily relied on...
Posted by Robert Heater | Aug. 10 at 07:00 PM
you're still the man Ian.... even though I blame your for trading away Maroney and Moss for LJ in my keeper league before last season started..... least I was able to flip LJ for the barbarian later