Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 12 at 02:15 PM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
With the new push-out rule against receivers, forcing them to have two feet in at all times, I wonder how many catches and/or TDs were accepted via the ref's judgment call last year? I'm trying to decide if some of the usual tall WRs that catch the fade/lob ball in the end zone should be downgraded.
Scott Pfeil [MINNEAPOLIS]
A:
I don't think that trying to throw fade routes to wide receivers is an effective way to attach a defense. Looking at the stats from the last three years (and these are our home-brewed stats, including 2-point conversions), I see that inside the 10-yard line, wide receivers who were at least 6-foot-5 caught 44 of 103 passes -- that's 43 percent. All other players, in that part of the field, caught 51 percent of passes thrown their way. Now we're adding into the mix the dimension of allowing defensive backs the option of trying to push out receivers before they get two feet down. I haven't seen any defensive back try this yet in a preseason game (anywhere on the field, not just in the end zone) but I think that we will. Probably not by a whole bunch, though. I expect that touchdown passes will decline by an average of 1-2 per team this year (in part because last year was a very good offensive year) but I don't think that everyone will agree that it was because of the revisions to the rulebook.
Question 2:
I am the deciding vote to determine if our league will have a team QB position in a 10 team league. I can see the arguement on both sides of the debate but wanted your thoughts.
Jon Cressler [WICHITA, KS]
A:
I can see why the Team Quarterback concept appeals to some people. You don't have to worry about players getting benched or injured. But don't all of those reasons also apply to every other position? Why not Team Kickers, Team Running Backs and Team Receivers? I like the dimensions that individual players bring to drafts, games and rosters.
Question 3:
Why is everyone so low on MJD? I understand he's splitting with Taylor but I have seen him consistently ranked around #20 among running backs. Your mag is the only one in which I found him ranked higher than 15. The guy scores touchdowns and catches the ball well. I think he is being seriously undervalued. I was ecstatic to grab him as my #2 RB.
Mike Koffski [CHICAGO, IL]
A:
Dunno. I think he's going to be great. Good runner. Good team. Catches lots of passes. Carries at the goal line. And with Fred Taylor getting older, I think there's a good chance Jones-Drew will get more touches. I think he's a No. 1 running back.
Question 4:
Talk for a minute about how the draft strategy might be a little bit different for itty bitty leagues. I seem to remember you had a good post about eight-team leagues a few years ago. I seem to remember the gist of it was value the players who are head and shoulders better at their position higher in the draft. It mentioned Gates (who at the time was easily the best TE) might be a second- or third-round pick since it gave you such an advantage over all the other teams at that position. Is this an accurate description of your thoughts on small leagues? Do you still think along those lines? If so, would LT, Brady, Moss, be 1-2-3 in an eight team league?
Robert Taylor [OMAHA, NE]
A:
You definitely want difference makers, and in an eight-team league, it’s important to keep in mind that plenty of good players aren’t even going to be selected. You don’t have to worry as much about “blowing” your draft, because you’ll definitely have the opportunity to rebuild through the waiver wire. With that in mind, it makes sense to take more chances in the middle and later rounds. I would rather have Kurt Warner, for example, than a starting quarterback with limited upside – Trent Edwards and Brodie Croyle. And in the early rounds, you’re definitely looking for guys who are going to give you an edge.
Question 5:
How are the Saints planning on using Shockey? If like Eric Johnson last year, ugh. No thanks. But if they send him downfield a la Billy Miller, then I want him. Big time.
Richard Loppnow [EPHRATA, WA]
A:
New Orleans' tight ends last year combined for 76 catches and 4 TDs. And those were lesser guys, rather than an above-average talent like Shockey. I think he'll do just fine there, probably catching 70-plus balls and maybe 5 TDs.
Question 6:
What's up with M. Colston's fall from grace in your PPR rankings? I drafted him super high in two PPR leagues this summer and now he's falling like a lead pipe on your cheat sheet. Has the addition of Shockey made that much of a difference or are you scared because fluid was drained from his knee or what?
BARRY BROWN [Columbus, OH]
A:
I'm not worried about Colston's knee. I think he'll be fine. I've moved him down on my board because I think that receiving corps is looking a lot deep than it did a few months back. Shockey is going to catch some balls and touchdowns. Robert Meachem looks like he's going to be a factor. And they've got plenty of others guys as well -- Reggie Bush, David Patten, Lance Moore, maybe Devery Henderson. The changes have been significant enough that I re-worked that team's numbers. When I allocated more of the production coming from Shockey and Meachem, I had to take some numbers away from Colston.
Question 7:
I'm in a ppr league that awards QB's 1/2 point per completion. Does this change the rankings. It's still 4 pts. for a TD. Also,is there a way to get a top 50 in your customized rankings?
JOHN RUPPE [FORT MYERS, FL]
A:
In the NFL, the average completion goes for 11 yards. Most of the quarterbacks are pretty close to that number (and it's hard to project who'll be higher and lower). So you can work the completion bonus in by converting it to yards. You're probably already giving 1 point for every 20 passing yards. Now you're also giving 1 point for every 22 passing yards. I think if you reconfigure your settings to give quarterbacks 2 points for every 21 passing yards (or 1 for every 10.5 yards), the results will be plenty close enough.
The same concept applies to running backs getting a half point for every rushing attempt. They tend to average about 4 yards per carry, so it you add 1 point for every 8 rushing yards, you should be fine. If you already give 1 point for every 10 rushing yards, then go with 1 point for every 4.5 yards or 2 points for every 9 rushing yards.
Question 8:
Need your help. 12 team (2 division) Draft league and one of our owners at the last minute is unable to attend due to an emergency. Each team plays every team in their division 2x and 3 random teams from the other division. So now we have 11 teams rather than 12. Don't want to get a new team, because the owner will definitely be back next year. What do you suggest doing for the missing team.
ERIC FEINGOLD [GARDEN CITY, NY]
A:
I think you could find an owner willing to sit in for a year, under the agreement that he probably wouldn't be extended a spot for 2009. But if you don't want to go that route, I would go with a best ball approach -- or rather, a "sixth-best ball" tactic. When your team is playing the 12th team, that 12th-team's score is equivalent to the 6th-highest score of the week. So at the end of the week, you throw out the five highest scores and the five lowest scores of the 11 teams, and that remaining score is the one that the opponent that week needs to beat. The Control Team should finish with a record in the neighborhood of .500. Keep in mind, however, that it's possible that team could finish 8-6 or even 9-5, potentially making the playoffs. You could address this by possibility by making the team ineligible for the playoffs, or by instead downgrading that team slightly. Instead of the 6th-highest out of 11, it could be the 6th-highest out of the 10 teams not involved in its game (making it, in theory, a slightly below average score each week). I like the idea of having the Control Team being a .500-type that that is ineligible for the playoffs.
Question 9:
I'm thinking about ways to improve the roster/bench setup for my league in terms of strategy. The current setup: QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, D/ST, K. There are no flex options and 9 bench slots.
I'm think about flexing a WR to RB/WR, and maybe removing 2 bench slots. How do you feel about the flex options and a limited bench?
Daniel Burks [BALTIMORE, MD]
A:
It depends on what your league wants. When a guy like Ryan Grant rips off 104 yards in a Monday night game at Denver, do you want everyone in your league to get a chance to put in a claim for him? If so, then you want small benches, with each team only getting a limited number of reserves (or no reserves). If you give each team 20 reserve spots, then those breakout players who come out of the woodwork -- the Ryan Grants of 2008 -- will already be on fantasy rosters before they play they're breakthrough games.
Question 10:
12-team Keeper league that can keep 3 players at cost of last season's draft pick. I have six legit keepers - who would you keep?
Larry Johnson - for 1st round pick
Terrell Owens - 2nd
Clinton Portis - 3rd
Jamal Lewis - 4th
Tony Romo - 7th
Ryan Grant - 20th
Thanks for your insights. Your mailbag is always the s***.
steve peavler [CHICAGO, IL]
A:
You've got to look at value, rather than overall production. Grant and Romo, with the cheap price tags, are the automatic choices. The tough one is mulling whether to go with Portis or Lewis. And Owens merits some consideration. I believe I'd go with Portis.
Question 11:
Ian - with the growing number of tailback by committee run systems is it wise to handcuff both players? I'm picking third so I'll get a premier back but in later rounds when mostly RB committees remain it becomes an issue. What's your opinion?
Fabrizio Danova [WEST HILLS, CA]
A:
I think it makes some sense. Once you select Ronnie Brown, for example, Ricky Williams has more value to you than any other owner in your league. The Dolphins intend for those backs to share time, but everyone knows that there's no way that both of those backs are going to make it through the season. When one of those guys gets hurt, the survivor will become a pretty good fantasy option.
Question 12:
I am in a 14-team keeper league and have the first pick. I am torn between LT and Steven Jackson. We can keep players for up to 4 years. Due to the depth of the league running backs are very valuable (you can start 3)and I don't want to make the wrong decision. I have been leaning towards Jackson due to age and I'm not sure he won't put up similar numbers anyway with Al Saunders as the new coordinator. Obviously Tomlinson is a proven stud and he plays for a much better team but I'm afraid he might start to decline soon. What do you think?
Butch Burns [Fishers, IN]
A:
Clever idea. Tomlinson is 29, so I don't think you can count on him for four more years. So Jackson does appear to be a viable option. He's only 25. But I would probably be too chicken to take either of those guys ahead of Adrian Peterson, who checks in at only 23. And maybe you should even consider the guy in your hometown (Joseph Addai), who'll be working with Peyton Manning for the next four years. What kind of package could you reel in if you were willing to trade down to the No. 3 or No. 4 spot? You might be able to trade down to No. 4, pick up something significant, and still get Jackson.
Question 13:
There seems to be increasing hype around Jonathan Stewart's impressiveness, the improving health of his toe, and his role in the offense. If I'm not mistaken, he is already the highest-ranked rookie RB on your board, but about middle of the pack among the main group of RBBC guys. Does any of this cause you to consider increasing his projections? Or is this the way you had already projected it to play out, meaning he's in the right spot?
L DALE GANDER [SUN PRAIRIE, WI]
A:
I don't see Stewart as a back on the rise. I would select Matt Forte before him. And I would consider selecting Darren McFadden ahead of him as well. I'm not sure that Stewart will be the best back on his own team; DeAngelo Williams looks pretty good, and I'm confident Williams will be the starter there at the start of the season.
Question 14:
I am in a twelve-team league that scores passing TDs as 6 points. Every team gets to keep one player. As it stands, my only viable choice is Willis McGahee. I have the opportunity to trade for Tom Brady and it would only cost me swopping my 1st & 3rd round picks with Brady's owner (I pick 1.09 & 3.09 - he drafts 1.11 & 3.11). My only fear is that the RBs available at 1.11 will be extremely thin. If I keep McGahee, I will probably be able to draft Tony Romo or Drew Brees. Which is better - McGahee + Romo/Brees or Brady + M. Turner/T. Jones?
PAUL KONCZAL [SAINT JOSEPH, MI]
A:
I'd rather have the Brady side. According to my numbers, you'd be looking at about a 603-554 advantage (I had it at 603-568 before McGahee was scheduled for the knee surgery).
Question 15:
I am in a 12 team PPR league and I have a question about using your customised rankings for my upcoming draft. Along with a point per reception my league also awards a point for every 2 completions and a point for every 2 rushing attempts. How can I input this into your customised rankings? Example running backs like Reggie Bush and Maurice Jones Drew would obviously be lowered in the rankings due to their lesser rushing attempts.
William Gross [St. Petersburg, FL]
A:
Sorry, we don't have the projections set up for your kind of scoring system. You can, however, access our exact stat projections for each player. And if you know your way around in the Excel program, you should be able to toy around with the numbers and tweak them to fit your system. For rushing attempts, it would be a fair estimate to just divide everyone's rushing yards by 4. For completions, you could assume those went for 11 yards each.
Question 16:
After several league rule changes and trades, I find myself with a weak keeper option relative to other teams. Other teams in my league are able to lock in guys like Addai, MBIII, Ryan Grant and Thomas Jones (we can only keep one player) while my only eligible/reasonable keeper options are Brandon Marshall at 6.01 or Jay Cutler at 13.12. Our league is PPR with 1 pt for every 10 yds rushing/20 yds receiving/50 yds passing. While Cutler at 13.12 provides me with a decent QB option at very little cost, I'd be almost as happy with the #11 or #12 QB. So, I lean toward Marshall (#7 on your PPR board per game). Then I consider the suspension and that in order for Marshall to catch a TD, Cutler has to throw it, so I'm back to Cutler.
STEVEN MATH [SAN ANTONIO]
A:
WIth keeper formats of this type, I'm not so much interested in overall production but production relative to draft position. Both Cutler and Marshall look like fine choices. Marshall, prior to his suspension would be a top-30 overall pick in that format. When you factor in the two or three games missed, I think you're looking at a player who would go in the fourth or fifth round. So you're picking up one-two rounds of draft position in the middle rounds. Cutler, on the other hand, probably should be selected in something like the 7th-8th-9th round in that kind of format, so you're getting about five rounds of later-round value. Looks pretty similar. I think I'd go with Cutler.
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Question 2: I am the deciding vote...
Posted by Craig Rinne | Aug. 18 at 10:22 PM
My league starts two QBs, so I think the Team QB makes sense--factoring in bye weeks, every team has to carry 3 QBs, which is 30 QBs in a ten team league, and if you start using individual QBs, you can easily imagine many scenarios where a team could end up with only one or even zero QBs that were actually starting in a given week.
Question 8: Need your help. 12 team...
Posted by Robert Heater | Aug. 13 at 01:38 AM
Can't the owner of the team who is missing the draft create his own personal rankings from which his team should be autodrafted for? He can even say what he wants drafted in what round. A couple years back an owner from my keeper league was unable to draft and we drafted from a rankings list he provided us. It reveals who he wants and thusly the owners with picks close on either side can manipulate their picks accordingly, but it does give the missing owner some say over his draft and let's them compete during the year.... plus we all know how much the waiver wire can change a team and there was no penalty on that. Let me also add that said owner that missed our draft actually made the playoffs that year, perhaps he should miss more drafts....
Question 8: Need your help. 12 team...
Posted by Moishe Steigmann | Aug. 13 at 07:35 AM
We had a similar situation and did something like that Robert suggested but more secrecy. The missing owner sent me (the commish) his rankings and his requests (i.e., in Round 6, if I already have three WRs, draft a 3rd RB before a 2nd QB unless one these QBs is available...). Worked out great. Plus, as the commish, he trusted me NOT to look at his rankings and requests until his turn in the draft came up. At that point, I looked at them, was able to consult with another owner if I needed help understanding (which I did not -- they were quite clear) and then made his selections. Worked out great.
Question 12: I am in a...
Posted by Butch Burns | Aug. 12 at 02:38 PM
I guess I should have added that Peterson and Addai are not available. The tops backs available are S. Jackson, Tomlinson, Westbrook, R. Grant, and Portis.