Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 15 at 12:39 PM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
In a recent mailbag you wrote: "Once you select Ronnie Brown, for example, Ricky Williams has more value to you than any other owner in your league." Please defend this assertion. Why is Williams worth more if you have Brown? Williams doesn't score more points for you than any other owner (they aren't Monopoly properties) and his likelihood to score isn't changed by Brown being on your roster so why 'more valuable?' Are you suggesting that in an auction format you should pay more for such a player if you have his job-share partner already on the roster? How do you calculate this premium? If pre-auction, I've determined Williams is worth 3% of my cap, he's suddenly worth 5%? 6%, if I get Brown? Williams certainly should be on someone's roster but I've never understood overspending to "handcuff."
TIM LIEBERG [CHAMPLIN, MN]
A:
Suppose you purchase Selvin Young in your auction. He should be a good running back – a player you’ll use every week. Later in the draft, you’re left with the option of purchasing Andre Hall, Brandon Jackson, Tim Hightower or Chester Taylor. All of those backups have similar value. Maybe you feel that it’s fair to set the over-under on started games at two for each of those guys. Which one makes the most sense, given that you’ve selected Young? I think that Hall does. With the other three, in order to reap any benefits as an injury fill-in, you need both an injury to Young, and an injury to another starting tailback – Ryan Grant, Edgerrin James, Adrian Peterson – to coincidentally occur at the same time. There’s almost no chance of that happening. But with Hall, if an injury occurs to Young, you’ve got the replacement back there in your back pocket – ready to plug in and use, just when your fantasy team needs him. I haven’t worked out any exact value formula, but I’d spend an extra buck or two to grab Hall. In a lot of auction formats, I would expect backs of this caliber to go for $1-2; since the back’s value isn’t increased for any other fantasy franchise, I don’t think he would cost you more than an extra dollar or two.
Question 2:
I get your rankings every week but wanted to know how your top 35 would change in a 10 team league, QBs receive 6 points for TDs and the rest is standard scoring. Starting line ups: QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex(WR/RB), no TE.
Paul Karrmann [CHESTER SPRGS, PA]
A:
This is where that new Custom Auction Values tool comes in handy. It allows you to generate a top 50 that accounts for your exact scoring system and your exact league size. Go to the “Your Products” section on the main page of the website. It’s visible after you log in. Once you click on that, find the “08/14 Custom Auction Values” link, which includes projections up to date through Thursday. Once you’re in there, click on the Scoring Profile link, where you can define TD passes being worth 6 points (or 60 points or 643 points – whatever you want). Then click on the Auction Profile. By plugging in numbers to the 15-20 questions on that page, you’ll be giving the computer the necessary background information to generate that top 50 overall list. Even though you’re not in an auction, put down that you’re giving each team a salary cap of 100, with 1 as the minimum bid. When you’re asked to identify how many running backs will go for more than the minimum, put 35 in there. When you’re asked how many WR-TE players will go for more than the minimum, use 40.
Question 3:
I can keep one player drafted in the 7th round or later from last year. My choice is between Brandon Marshall and Michael Turner. I'm still leaning toward Marshall. I'm not confident Turner would end up being in my starting lineup (3WR's, 2 RB's). But Marshall's suspension is making me think twice.
Michael Harloff [HERNDON, VA]
A:
I'd go with Marshall. They're starting three wide receivers in that league, and increases the demand at that position. There aren't that many wide receivers with a good chance to catch 100 passes. Marshall is one of those type of guys (at least he was until getting suspended for two or three games). I'd draft Marshall and gut out the suspension.
Question 4:
I just got the latest 8/14 cheatsheet update and have a couple of questions. I am drafting in both of my leagues on sunday and will not be able to read your monday update. I was wondering what your rational was in the lastest cheatsheet where you moved Gore and Thomas Jones down and Larry Johnson and Jacobs up considerably?
Joe Cartan [SAN FRANCISCO, CA]
A:
That's just part of the over-analysis that goes into the product each year. I spent a couple of hours going over all of the projections on Wednesday afternoon, tweaking some teams down a few notches and increasing the projections for others. I think the Giants look pretty good; I think they'll run the ball well this season and Tom Coughlin has a long track record of putting together teams that punch out 16-18 rushing TDs. Gore moved down because I'm losing confidence in San Francisco's offense in general. I just don't think they have the horses to make Mike Martz's system work. Anyway, in making tweaks to the various team projections, it results in some players moving up and down -- there's not a lot of difference between some of these players.
Question 5:
In your last mailbag you said MJD is a No. 1 RB. I agree. But make the argument why he should be picked ahead of Larry Johnson. MJD will be splitting time and LJ, while on a lesser team, figures to get every rushing touchdown the Chiefs score. Isn't this the classic case of taking LJ since he's a lone back and letting MJD go because he'll split time?
Geoff Maleman [LOS ANGELES, CA]
A:
I'm projecting Maurice Jones-Drew to score 60 percent of his team's rushing touchdowns. He's the guy they like to use at the goal-line. I'm projecting Larry Johnson to score 85 percent of his team's rushing TDs (and 85 percent is about as high as I go, when you factor in the probability of a quarterback sneak, a change-up carry to a fullback or a backup tailback happening to punch one in). I will conced that 85 percent is greater than 60 percent, but I have Jacksonville finishing up at 17-18 rushing TDs; I have Kansas City down at 10-11. I also have MJD as more likely to score on pass plays, and I also believe he has better than a 50-50 chance of scoring on a kickoff return. He's scored on two of those in the last two years, and he nearly had another one in that playoff win at Heinz Field. The numbers add up.
Question 6:
Who do you think the biggest sleeper of all time was? I'd have to say Kurt Warner in 1999.
MIKE CLARK [LAS VEGAS, NV]
A:
I can't top Kurt Warner. When I look at running backs who scored 18-plus touchdowns, the name that stands out to me is Dalton Hilliard (1989). When I looked at wide receivers, I think of Randy Moss scoring 17 TDs as a rookie.
Question 7:
In using the excel sheet from the 8/11 update and tweaking it to our league's scoring I noticed that when I sorted all positions by projected points QBs had the most in the top 10. The breakdown was 3 RBs (Tomlinson, Jackson, Peterson), 3 WRs (Moss, Edwards, Owens) and 4 QBs (Brady, Manning, Brees, Romo). So my question is this, after you have the projected points how do you go about ranking the players? Obviously no rankings from FFI I've seen has 4 QBs in the top 10.
Ken Rose [ROCHESTER, NY]
A:
You want to look at value, not overall production. There are plenty of quarterbacks, for example, who will throw 20 TD passes and won't even be selected in your league. It would be ridiculous to select one of those guys before a running back who's going to score 10 TDs, even though the QB was going to score more overall points. So instead, focus on the "above and beyond" production. At quarterback, for example, it would be more useful to look at TD passes beyond 20. Using that model, Tom Brady (36 TDs) would be twice as valuable as Drew Brees (28 TDs), perhaps. The key is where to set that starting, baseline player. On the overall draftboards that we publish, we tend to project that in most fantasy leagues, that baseline QB will be about the 15th guy. At running back, maybe the 32nd player. And at wide receiver, about the 36th player. We're much stingier at the lesser positions (PK, TE, Defense), giving those positions only limited value.
Question 8:
What your thoughts are on the issue of QB's getting 4 points for Passing TD's instead of 6? I've played with both and believe that at 6 QBs become overvalued. Couple of owners in our league insist that 4 is not enough for the "most important position in football". Starting 2 QBs (a decent solution) has been voted down before.
Miguel Tames [MIAMI, FL]
A:
When I started my first fantasy league in 1986, it was with 7 points for touchdowns and 5 for TD passes. I liked that mix. It makes 3 TD passes worth slightly more than 2 TD runs/catches. But 3 TD runs/catches are worth more than 3 TD passes. Seems right to me. And it also makes the kickers worth slightly less, which I like. So for those leagues who are wrestling with the debate of going with 4 or 6 points for TD passes, keep that in mind. It's your league; you can pick whatever values you please. You can go with a 7-6, 7-5 or 6-5 split -- every option is on the table. Too bad your owners won't try to double quarterback rule -- that could be the one that solves your problem.
Question 9:
What is the average margin of error for your stat projections over the past several years, specifically for QBs? In my point per completion league, I'm concerned that +/- 25 completions and 4 TDs can be the difference between reaching for Brees or Romo versus getting value from the likes of Palmer or Roethlisberger.
Jered Ottenwess [NEWBERRY, FL]
A:
The margin of error on the projections varies from player to player. Last year, the margin of error on Randy Moss was 100 percent. He wasn't among my top 10 receivers. Other players weren't as bad. At quarterback, I suggest you balance the stat projections you're using -- whether they're ours or yours -- against the historical information from your draft. How often, for example, do you see four quarterbacks getting selected in the first two rounds? What kind of quarterback can you expect to get in round 7 or 8? Do you think Jay Cutler will still be there at that spot? This should help you to unlock a workable draft strategy.
Question 10:
I'm in a league which starts 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE and 1 Flex which can be either a RB, WR or TE. This year, to make TEs a bigger scoring option, we added 1 point per catch for TEs. The standard scoring in our league is 1 pt per 10 yards rushing and receiving and 6 points for TDs. Now, with TEs getting a point per catch, do you think it's crazy to grab two awesome TEs early (Witten/Winslow) and start both?
Ted Adams [WALKER, LA]
A:
Award points for catches to only tight ends makes that a marquee position. According to my stat projections, seven tight ends would then rank among the top 24 overall in the combined RB-WR-TE position (Witten at No. 4, and then six guys clustered between 14th and 24th). So it would make sense, in my eyes, to grab two of those elite tight ends and plug one into the flex spot every week.
Question 11:
Everyone seems to be down on DeAngelo Williams - that he's a scatback type that will soon progressively see less and less playing time behind Jonathan Stewart. What people seem to be discounting is his size (5'9", 217), which is, although compact, certainly not diminutive by league-wide standards. Additionally, he now more frequently hits the hole quickly and takes what's there rather than the Barry Sanders-like, all-or-nothing type of running back that came into the league in 2006. It seems all but certain that he will open as the starter in September. If he produces to previous levels, can you really envision John Fox reducing his role to a change-of-pace, 3rd-down type back?
Paul Desimone [HAYWARD, CA]
A:
I'm not down on Williams. I've got him higher than Stewart on my board. He's had a couple of years to adjust to the pro game, and I think he's going to do pretty well this year.
Question 12:
I've been a subscriber for years, with a pretty decent success rate with your info and my gut feelings. I've been asked to join a league with a scoring rule that could really have an impact on the draft and I'd love your input. It's a two parter. Return yards are 1 pt. per 10 yards. Part one - With kick return yards killing punt return yards, who's your list of kick return studs? Part two - What round or rounds would these guys fall into the draft. The scoring system is pretty much standard other than listed above with 1 pt. per 10 yards rushing receiving and so on.
Jeff Carter [FRANKLIN, TN]
A:
Let's re-visit this one in a week or so, after I've had a chance to see another rack of preseason games. I'll be looking for players who return both kickoffs and punts -- like Chris Carr in Tennessee, and probably Josh Cribbs and Devin Hester. And I'll be looking for kickoff returners on bad teams (bad teams allow more points, and that allows their returner to pick up more of those free 20-yard chunks). Of the top 8 KO teams last year (in pure, total yards), six were really bad teams -- Rams, Falcons, 49ers, Jets, Raiders and Bengals. Of the eight teams that finished with the lowest yardage totals, all but one were playoff teams (fewer kick returns = fewer yards).
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Question 2: I get your rankings every...
Posted by Jim Faile | Aug. 17 at 09:12 AM
year since 1995 when I won my league with the WR trio of Rice, Carter, and H Moore! I love your bold predictions and rankings, and I have followed you to many FF championships. I am now in several dynasty/keeper leagues, and unfortunately, you don't offer any type of cheat sheet that takes a players future potential into account. I still read your team capsules where you make a mention or two about a dynasty value, but I wonder when you are going to put out a true dynasty/keeper cheat sheet? Jim Faile
Question 8: What your thoughts are on...
Posted by Matt Tinker | Aug. 20 at 11:28 AM
Miguel- FWIW, our league has been using 7 points for rushing/receiving TDs and 5 for passing TDs for 20 years, and it seems like a good mix...
Question 10: I'm in a league which...
Posted by Dustin Mason | Aug. 17 at 08:28 AM
gets to keep one player from the previous year who was drafted from the 10th round on....That player just so happens to be THE Braylon Edwards and I am so pumped. If you were in my position with your tenth pick already locked in this year as Braylon Edwards, what approach would you take come draft day being that you already have your stud WR?
Question 12: I've been a subscriber for...
Posted by Craig Rinne | Aug. 15 at 04:53 PM
Our league has done this for years, and it really jacks up some WRs--last year, Hester and Cribbs were the #5 and 6 overall WRs, Ginn was 9th, and Burleson was 2nd overall (though I don't know if he's returning kicks this year). Some RBs get a pretty decent bump, too.