Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 22 at 07:53 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I was wondering if you would add more stat categories to your custom cheat sheets. With all the RBBC out there, we give .2 points per carry just like we give .8 PPR. We also give or subtract points for points scored against defenses, length of field goals, missed field goals by distance, missed extra points, return yardage and pass completions.
MARK MANCINA [LIVONIA, MI]
A:
Currently, my stat projection database contains over 36,000 different cells. Are you trying to make my head explode? For carries, I think you'll be fine if you just tie those to yards. Everyone tends to finish pretty close to 4.0 yards per carry, so just use that as your guide. So instead of using 1 point for every 10 rushing yards, just use 1.5 points for every 10 rushing yards. (And you can do that in the Custom Rankings Deal that's available at the website). For FG lengths and missed field goals, that's something we'll have to think about -- I'll concede that plenty of people go by more than just straight points for field goals.
Question 2:
I am in a 12-team league ( 12 teams) ... the catch is this we Start 2 QB's ... that simple difference put the draft in completely different perspective...The Stud QB's go early....especially now that there is all RB committee stuff going on... any advice would be appreciated ... I draft third this Year.
Tomas Ledden [Mamaroneck, NY]
A:
This is the type of question that can now be handled by that Custom Auction Values deal that we've got at the website. It's available for free to any who's purchased the $6.00 update. You just load in your league's scoring system, load in the target area where you feel players can be obtained relatively cheaply, and let the computer do its magic. In this case, for a 1-QB league, you would probably project that only 15 quarterbacks would go for more than the league minimum. When you add that second starting quarterback, I think you'll see about 27 quarterbacks going for more than the minimum. And that's a huge change. In a traditional, 1-QB league, I think only four quarterbacks should go in the top 55 overall. With the double quarterback rule, I think the only non-quarterback who'll go in the top 5 overall is LaDainian Tomlinson, and you'll see 20 quarterbacks selected in the top 55. That's what the stat projections tell us should happen.
Question 3:
What is the logic behind ranking defense/special teams differently in PPR and Yardage+TD leagues? Tampa Bay, for example, ranks 12th and 20th, respectively.
RAY SCHMITT [NORMAL, IL]
A:
We're just trying to give readers another option to choose from. If they want the traditional rankings, based solely on touchdowns, sacks and takeaways, they can get those in the various areas. The PPR defense rankings also factor in some credit for the defenses that allow fewer points. In a year or two, you may see this approach brought to the other position -- maybe adding interceptions to the quarterback rankings on the PPR, or distance bonuses for field goals on the kickers.
Question 4:
Your overall top 30 is based on a 12 team league. One of the leagues I am in is only teams. I wonder how you would revise the overall top 15 for an 8 team league.
RANDY NEWLAND [VILLA HILLS, KY]
A:
It changes things. That's why the Custom Auction Values tool is an essential addition to our lineup. We can't service every league, because the rankings change based on scoring systems, league sizes and starting lineups. If you start 3 receivers, that moves those guys up on the overall board. If you start double quarterbacks, they move way up. And so on. For an eight-team league with two starting wide receivers, if you punch a standard scoring system into our computer, I think you'll find an overall top 20 that looks something like this:
RB Tomlinson, QB Brady, WR R.Moss, RB Peterson, RB S.Jackson, WR Owens, QB P.Manning, QB Brees, RB Westbrook, QB Romo, WR Edwards, RB Barber, WR Fitzgerald, WR C.Johnson, RB Gore, WR Wayne, WR A.Johnson, WR Colston, RB Addai , RB Jones-Drew.
Question 5:
On the updated cheat sheet (yardage/TD) 8/18 Brett Favre is ranked #13 and Jon Kitna is ranked #23. Cotchery is ranked #19 and Coles #29. Calvin Johnson is ranked #8 and Roy Williams #13. Both the Lions and Jets teams have no stand out TE or #3wr on your board. Favre and Kitna are a wash in their running ability. The math doesn't add up. I personally think Roy Williams is ranked too high. Please explain?
MICHAEL FON [DOBBS FERRY, NY]
A:
The numbers add up. I've got Johnson and Williams ranked higher than Cotchery and Coles because I think that they'll account for a much higher percentage of their team's catches, yards and touchdowns. Johnson and Williams, in fact, should lead the entire NFL in those categories. They might catch 80 percent of Detroit's passing touchdowns, and they might account for 70 percent of their team's receiving yards. I think everything will flow through them. In New York, I think you'll see the running backs, tight ends and situational wide receivers more involved. And the Jets do have an up-and-coming threat at tight end: Dustin Keller.
Question 6:
I'm going off your Aug. 18th sheet. I like Cutler and Calvin Johnson too, but I think they may slip in my draft (this Sunday). Knowing when to pass and when to pull the trigger is key in drafting. When do you pull the trigger on Cutler, Johnson?
Daniel Burks [BALTIMORE, MD]
A:
Good question. I don't know. In the case of Cutler, I've got him as the No. 5 quarterback, but I don't see him as that much better than the next half-dozen guys. I think you'll be able to wait and have a few quarterbacks selected before him. With Johnson, I'm becoming more convinced that he's going to be a top-10 receiver. And the more we talk about it and the better he continues to play in the preseason games, I'm becoming paranoid that he's now going to be a top-10 receiver on a lot of other players boards as well. I expect him to be one of the first 15 wide receivers drafted in the vast majority of leagues.
Question 7:
I have Marion Barbar as a keeper (giving up 4th round pick). Usually I go RB/RB in 1st Two rounds. I pick 6th and am tempted to take Manning over likes of Jackson/Addai/Gore and then take RB is second round. Am I foolish for not taking the second Big name RBs or are their enough question marks about these RBs that Manning is the sure thing and along with a Thomas Jones/Jamal Lewis type in the second?
DAN TROUT [NEWFOUNDLAND, NJ]
A:
Manning has value, but if you were going to select a quarterback in the first two rounds, I think it would make more sense to select him in the second round. If you add up the projected stats of the running back you would take at No. 6 and the quarterback you would select at pick 2.07, I think you'll find the production is better than the combo of Manning at 1.06 and a running back at 2.07. With Manning nursing the gimpy knee, he might even be available at that 2.07 spot.
Question 8:
I am in a 12 team league in which we draft Team QBs rather than individual QBs. Under the system we automatically get all backups on the team. I would be very interested to see your Top 15 list for TQBs based on your projections for both the Starters AND the Backups.
Andrew Napoli [SPRINGFIELD, VA]
A:
According to my stats (and these don't include rushing production by quarterbacks), the top 15 passing teams should be (in order):
New England, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Dallas, Arizona, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Seattle, Houston, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Denver, NY Jets, NY Giants.
Question 9:
Hope everything is going well for you. Do you think Ricky Williams could put up above-average numbers this year? I know Miami is going to suck but last year Ronnie Brown was doing well on a lousy team before his knee injury.
Scott DENHAM [MILLBROOK, AL]
A:
I like Ricky Williams. I think he's going to outproduce Brown. And while the Dolphins appear to be a lesser team, I could see them moving up to 5-11 and putting up respectable numbers at times.
Question 10:
As always great magazine, and great updates. Thanks for your hard work! Someone has left LenDale White off of their keepers in my keeper league. I have the 4th overall pick in this draft, and seriously am considering him. Thoughts on White's production this year?
Michael Dylkiewicz [ORLAND PARK, IL]
A:
Well, Eddie George says White is probably going to run for 1,500-plus yards. I'm not quite that optimistic, but I think White will be pretty good. Won't do much as a receiver. I think he'll probably be in the mix at that spot in your draft. Might make sense as the choice. Certainly, he's going to outproduce rookie running backs like Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones and Rashard Mendenhall.
Question 11:
10 team, 2QB 2RB 2WR 1 TE 1K 1D league. I have the #6 pick. Who do you take? Manning, Romo or Brees? I am not sold on Manning this year due to his horrific schedule and the extent of how this injury will effect him. Any thoughts? Thanks!
Mark Dillen [Louisville, OH]
A:
If you're not going to select Manning, then you should consider Drew Brees. Lots of yards. Better team this year. And his receiving corps is vastly improved.
Question 12:
I'm in a ten team auction league that drafts 15 players. Two of those fifteen are keepers. According to the custom auction values, those 20 keepers are a total of $220 under their calculated values. Do you know of a way to adjust the values of the remaining players because of this "extra" money that's available for the owners to spend?
ROBERT LINDMEIER [OREGON, WI]
A:
Yes. Add money to the salary cap for each team. If the overall dollar figure ends up being short by $220, try adding about $35 to each team's salary cap in the setup. That will add $350 total to the value of all players, and some of that will be applied to the players who are already causing the $220 shortfall (making that $220 shortfall even larger). I can't give you an exact mathematical formula, though, because I believe the money issue is tied to the bang-for-you-buck production of each of those 20 keepers.
Question 13:
Every year, rookie RB's get a TON of pub during training camp about being "next" and this year is no different - (K.Smith, Forte, Hightower, Rice, Stewart, F.Jones, C.Johnson, Hester & Mendenthall). Can you please tell us which ones are just 'flavors-of-the-day' and which ones have legit shots at being "The Man" on their teams for years to come?
Steven Teofilo [Appleton, WI]
A:
Relative to where the guys were ranked in the magazine, guys who have moved up on our board would include Kevin Smith, Matt Forte, Tim Hightower, Chris Johnson and Jacob Hester. Mendenhall and Stewart have moved down. Sleeper: Hightower.
Question 14:
I am in a keeper league and however I did not keep anyone. I have the first pick followed by the ninth pick. If you want you can keep the players for a lifetime. Obviously, all rookies are available plus the following players that I am considering selecting: Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson, Jay Cutler, Maurice Jones-Drew, Larry Johnson, Clinton Portis, and Ryan Grant. I prefer Calvin Johnson over them all but I was wondering if I could select another player first and select Calvin Johnson with my ninth pick.
Randy Graham [BENTON, AR]
A:
For the 2008 season, Moss makes the most sense. If you're looking at 2009 and beyond, you'll have to think about Calvin Johnson. And paranoid guy that I am, I don't think he'll be there at #9.
Question 15:
Could you summarize who the latest top free agents are and also give your take on who among them are the best positioned to be productive this season?
ANTHONY TANGORRA [NEW YORK, NY]
A:
I'm not sure I understand the question. Are you asking which of the free agents who signed in the spring are going to have the most fantasy value? On that front, I'll go with Michael Turner and Alge Crumpler (I think; I don't think I'm forgetting about one). If you're asking about guys who are free agents right now, I don't see any of the remaining guys making an impact. The best unsigned players right now, in my opinion, are Daunte Culpepper, Shaun Alexander, Cedric Benson, Joe Horn and Terry Glenn.
Question 16:
Thank you very much for the Avg TD Length for TD Receptions. Long TD bonuses is an area that most magazines completely ignore. To be completely greedy, the next logical question of course is whether you have the stats for Avg TD Runs for the RBs.
WILLIAM SCHREIBER [LOS ALTOS, CA]
A:
I think I ran that a few weeks back. But I'll get it up within a few days. Promise. Tight ends, too.
Question 17:
In my league, the scoring rules award 1 point for each 10 yards of kickoff and punt return yardage (12 team league with standard scoring). How does this change the value of MJ Drew and Devin Hester? What other players are significantly impacted?
Russell Thornton [WINDHAM, OH]
A:
I expect Jones-Drew to return kickoffs again, so I would project him to finish with an additional 700 yards. It's the same as if he were going to rush for another 700 yards or catch and extra 80 passes. It helps him a lot. For Hester, you're looking at a guy who'll return both kickoffs and punts; he went for over 1,500 yards on returns last year. In that type of league, I would enter the draft knowing the identity of the kickoff and punt returners for all 32 teams. Joshua Cribbs (maybe out for the first month with a high ankle sprain), Leon Washington, Darren Sproles -- you'll have to consider a lot of those guys.
Question 18:
Draft day is only days away. My lists are pretty much complete but I have a question about style. Right in the middle of every draft I run into the dilemma of whether to pick my entire starting lineup first before picking my 3rd running back and receiver. I can understand picking a 3rd running back or receiver before a starting kicker but aside from the kicker position, should I pick a starting tight end and defense before my 3rd running back and receiver? Generally, is it better to draft a complete starting lineup knowing I'll be able to find quality running backs and receivers on the waiver wire then to grab back ups that might be steals at the rb and wr position.
Our league drafts 2 qb 3 rb 3 wr 2 te 2 kickers and 2 def
Johnny Bazzano [SANTA ROSA, CA]
A:
I don't think you need to go in with a set plan. In most leagues, I would guess people select that third running back and third wide receiver before addressing the tight end, kicker or defense positions. Tight ends are particularly deep this year, so if you don't pick one of the franchise ones, I suggest you hold off on that position.
Question 19:
Do you buy the "rumor" that Ronnie Brown will be jettisoned from the Dolphins? If so, is this a reflection of his ACL recovery or an endorsement of Ricky Williams?
Farhan Hassan [SAINT PAUL, MN]
A:
No. I don't think Miami will move Brown. Williams is 31 and could be gone at the end of the year, so it makes sense to keep Brown around for 2009.
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Question 3: What is the logic behind...
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Aug. 23 at 05:19 AM
Just to elaborate on Ian's answer. The PPR rankings for Defense used to be exactly the same as the Yardage rankings; of course, PPR doesn't matter with defenses. But since our yardage rankings only take into account sacks, takeaways, and defensive touchdowns -- and not points allowed -- and many leagues do give defenses extra credit for giving up fewer points, we added a points allowed component to those "PPR" defensive rankings. Tampa Bay, for example, looks to be below-average in terms of generating sacks and takeaways, but when you factor in fantasy credit for fewer points allowed, they rank much more favorably. That's particularly the case at home, whatever the reason. Other teams who benefit in such a scoring system include Indianapolis, Jacksonville, and Tennessee.
Question 8: I am in a 12...
Posted by Eric Leeson | Aug. 25 at 11:03 AM
team PPR league, drafting #3. I've always thought to play it safe w/my #1 pick. That pick just can't be a bust via performance or injury. As long as they produce at a steady upper level.... league's are won in the 3-8th rounds. With that said, would it be crazy to take M.Barber3 over R.Moss with my pick? NE has me nervous with O line and D issues as well as Brady. SJax (my #1 choice up till 2 weeks ago) or Gore on paper are great but RBs on bad teams....Westbrook and Peterson are high risk injury prospects. As always your input is very much valued. Thanks again, etl
Question 12: I'm in a ten team...
Posted by Trevor Sharp | Aug. 23 at 11:26 AM
The formula that I read about to calculate "keeper inflation" is as follows: First, calculate the amount of money available in your league (# of teams x cap for each team). Then, add up your perceived value for each player that is being kept (note this number). Next, add up the actual cost of each kept player (note this). Subtract the total of your perceived value for each kept player from the total amount of money available (first number). Subtract the total of the actual value of each kept player from the total amount of money available (second number). Divide the first number by the second number and that's your keeper inflation multplier, multiply all of your perceived values of the available players by the keeper inflation multiplier and that will give you prices including keeper inflation. For those who understand formulas better: (total money available - total of your perceived keeper values) / (total money available - total of actual keeper values) multiply all of your perceived values by the above number for all available players. A keeper inflation multiplier that is 1 has no inflation, a multiplier of 1.1 has 10% inflation, 1.2 has 20% inflation, etc. I hope this helps, it took me a while to type it up in a format that isn't too confusing. I'm not so sure that I accomplished that. If not, I read about this formula in ESPN's fantasy football section a couple of weeks ago (sorry Ian).