Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Sep. 19 at 10:08 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I always struggle each year to determine the values of a QB, RB or WR. I know your overall ranking are based on player skill and position scarcity, but it seems like WRs (even good ones) have a higher % of games where they go all or nothing. A RB or a QB even in a bad game is going to get at least a certain # of touches/points.
Brian Pedersen [PARK RIDGE, IL]
A:
I've been playing fantasy football for 23 years. I've always found that it's far easier to get acceptable production by plugging in nobodies at quarterback and running back. In one of my leagues, for example, my only quarterback is David Garrard. He's struggling right now and has a poor matchup this week -- at Indianapolis. But I think I can get by this week with J.T. O’Sullivan. The Rent-A-QB strategy. I'll probably use O’Sullivan once and throw him away -- maybe pick up a new fill-in guy next week if Garrard is still struggling. And at running back, I've always had success picking up No. 2 running backs on the waiver wire when starters have gotten hurt. If Laurence Maroney and LaMont Jordan sit out this week, for example, I believe Sammy Morris will be a monster for the Patriots. Darren Sproles will be a big-time back if LaDainian Tomlinson sits out for a week. I'm always on the lookout for those kind of players. But I've found that strategy doesn't work at wide receiver. There are a limited number of guys who can be counted on to catch 90-plus balls and 9-plus TDs, and you either have those guys or you don't. If Terrell Owens gets hurt in Dallas, Miles Austin won't step in and start kicking butt. Muhsin Muhammad can't be counted on to do the same kind of things as Steve Smith. And Darrell Jackson just isn't the same as Brandon Marshall. My advice, therefore, is to get your hands on some solid, blue-chip receivers that you can count on. You want to be doing your lineup shuffling at the other positions.
Question 2:
Wondering if there are a few players around the league that you feel could be obtained right now with a 'buy low' strategy. Most of the Bengals' players come to mind.
Brian Grzybowski [RICHMOND, VA]
A:
I think you can wait another week on the Bengals. They're not going to do anything on Sunday at the Meadowlands, but I imagine they'll fire things up nicely the following week against the Browns. Braylon Edwards might have his wakeup game in the same contest. I like Edwards more than either of the Cincinnati guys. This was our "Ask the Experts" question for this week. To see how our panel answered, click here.
Question 3:
Why are you continuing to rank Hightower so low in TD only leagues? An 18% chance of scoring seems kind of low for a goal line back on a good offense even if the Cardinals are play a decent Redskins defense. Also, you've been good about admitting your mistakes in the past. So what's with the "Ginn .. ranked lower than you might expect"? You set the expectations! You ranked Ginn pretty high (19th in TD only leagues) prior to the start of the season despite the knowledge and your own repeated warnings of Pennington's weak arm. Now, nothing major has changed to Miami's offense -- no injuries, no surprisingly effective running game, etc. -- and your citing Pennington's weak arm as a reason to lower MY expectations of Ginn? Hey, kudos to you on Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall, but you missed on this middle tier receiver
MARK BOYD [FAIRFAX STATION, VA]
A:
I don't think Hightower will score this week, but I'll agree that he's a little low in a TD-only format. Right now, I've got him slotted to score a third of Arizona's rushing touchdowns. But with it seeming like they're going to plug him in for most plays at the goal line, I may need to move him up from about a third to about half. As for Ginn, I thought he was going to be better. I thought he was ready to step up and be a legit wide receiver. And he's helped in TD-only formats by his return ability -- I had him slotted to average a TD return for every 12-13 games. Two games in, however, he's struggling. In the Arizona game, they didn't even use Ginn on punt returns, and he wasn't even on the field when they went to three-receiver sets. I'm not blaming that all on Old Noodle Arm. It would nice if Ginn had somebody with a stronger arm throwing to him, but he just doesn't look ready to be a big-time receiver right now. Only 3 catches for 26 yards in two games.
Question 4:
Which odd backup QB situation would you prefer to take advantage of right now -- Griese or Collins? From what we know and are hearing, it sounds like there is a good chance for both of these guys to start the rest of the year.
L DALE GANDER [SUN PRAIRIE, WI]
A:
I guess we can add Gus Frerotte into that mix as well. None of these guys are worth more than spot start here and there -- bye-week or matchup-based fill-in -- but each could give a little bump to their team's passing production. Each of these three quarterback moves could benefit the wide receivers on those teams. That's definitely the case with Collins and Frerotte; not so much so with Griese.
Question 5:
In your late August update, you wrote "we like the idea of selecting Antonio Bryant in the later rounds... We think he'll be a starter - maybe a very productive one. Bryant's considerable upside is tied to Joey Galloway... If and when one of those old legs breaks down, Bryant will become the top option in the team's passing game." Well, now Galloway is injured. Bryant didn't have a single catch in week 2 against Atlanta? Should I give up on Bryant or do you still think he will take the number one spot?
Randall Weiss [MERRITT ISLAND, FL]
A:
He's been pretty disappointing so far, hasn't he? Just 3 catches for 43 yards in the opener at New Orleans. One of the local papers says that he's dropped 3 passes. I'll be curious to see how he does in a featured role this week -- he'll be their guy with Galloway down -- but he hasn't shown enough to merit being used as a starter in a fantasy league (this week). If he plays reasonably well this week (in what appears to be a tough matchup), then perhaps you'll be able to use him later on. I think it's safe to say Galloway will miss multiple games this season.
Question 6:
What do you think Bobby Engram's value will be after the bye week? The Selvin Young owner in my league has him and I'm thinking of offering him Hall as handcuff for Young in exchange for Engram.
Jason Lent [HONOLULU, HI]
A:
Go for it. I think Hall will be stuck in some kind of committee all year. Too many backs there. At some point, Young or Hall or Pittman will get hurt, but rookie Ryan Torain will get healthy. I'd rather have Engram, who should be Seattle's No. 1 receiver after the team's week 4 bye.
Question 7:
I have Kurt Warner and Aaron Rodgers. I can Trade one of them and Maroney for Matt Hasselbeck and Jonathan Stewart. I NEED a second RB. Should I do it? Which QB do I deal?
mark cote [GILBERT, AZ]
A:
I would trade Warner and Maroney for Stewart and Hasselbeck. You hate to give up Warner, but Hasselbeck should be an adequate backup, and I think Stewart is a lot better than Maroney. They're so heavily into the committee situation in New England that I just don't think there's any way that Maroney can be a reliable player. With Stewart, I think, there's a better chance that he'll develop into something special (even though he's still stuck behind DeAngelo Williams). I'm sure that either Warner or Rodgers will have a serious injury before November, so you'll either look like a genius or dummy with this trade.
Question 8:
Mr. Allen, I'm a new subscriber and in a 10 team league. Most quality receivers are taken. I drafted Ted Ginn (Mia) with my final receiver pick. Was looking at Matt Jones (Jac) but notice you give him no love in your latest redrafter. Is there something I don't know but should before I act?
SALEM ADAMS [EGG HARBOR TOWNSHIP, NJ]
A:
Jones is OK. If you want to take him over Ginn, that's fine. Jones has led the Jaguars in catches and receiving yards two weeks in a row. But Jerry Porter will be back this week, and I fear that will translate into Jones getting fewer balls. Is he even going to be that team's top pass catcher? I can't say that for sure. Back at the start of camp, they were intending for Porter and Reggie Williams to be their starting wide receivers. I see a mess there, with Dennis Northcutt also probably catching 30-40 passes as a slot guy.
Question 9:
Do you think DeSean Jackson will keep up this production, or will he drop when the Eagles starting receivers come back? Are there some WR's out there that you would target in a trade (buy low early)?
RYAN OTTE [NATICK, MA]
A:
I think he's the real. I think he'll continue to catch lots of pass, rack of lots of yards, and continue to drop lots of balls right before stepping into the end zone (rim shot). Seriously, even after Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis return, I think Jackson will be their top receiver. The return of those guys, however, should bring his numbers down a bit.
Question 10:
I'm off to a great start in all my leagues, thanks in large part to your service. Why no love for Matt Prater on the redrafter, considering Denver's high-powered offense and high altitude? I would think he would rank in your top 20 kickers.
DANIEL FORD [ROCHESTER, NY]
A:
Prater's fine. He'll show up as a top-10 kicker in a lot of weeks. The overall rankings are tied to overall (season-long) points, so his value is deflated a little there. I'm still not 100 percent sold on Prater's accuracy (the Falcons cut him last year). With most kickers, I have them projected to play in all 16 games. I didn't have the confidence to pencil in Prater for 16 games; that's why he's much lower in the overall rankings. If you're in a league where you have the flexibility to quickly and cheaply replace him with another adequate kicker, you should move Prater well up on your draft board.
Question 11:
Is it time to consider getting rid of Shockey and replacing him with Owen Daniels who is a available in my league?
Gary Gesnaldo [SAN ANTONIO, FL]
A:
They've got similar value in my opinion. I've got Daniels a little higher on my overall board, but I think Shockey is a slightly better option for this week.
Question 12:
I love reading everything you guys post. I can't get enough. I'm spending my birthday watching the Monday Night Football game w/ Dallas and Philly. Maybe you can answer a question about the Romo fumble in the end zone. Kornheiser mentioned himself during the replay that it looked like Romo was trying to throw the football. Why isn't this a "Tuck Rule" play? I realize it's not a fantasy question per se, but maybe you can answer.
Randy Jackson [DENVER, CO]
A:
I'm not a Tuck Rule expert. Back when Tom Brady lost the ball against the Raiders in 2002, it just looked like a fumble to me. In the case of Romo, I saw just a glimmer of intent that it looked like he was looking to dish the ball off. But I wouldn't know how to loop-hole that into an incompletion. The rule reads as follows (did you know the rule has its own Wikipedia site?): Rule 3, Section 21, Article 2, Note 2: "When a Team A player is holding the ball to pass it forward, any intentional forward movement of his hand starts a forward pass, even if the player loses possession of the ball as he is attempting to tuck it back toward his body. Also, if the player has tucked the ball into his body and then loses possession, it is a fumble."
Question 13:
I have been offered Steven Jackson for Chris Johnson or Earnest Graham. By rankings it seems like a steal, but honestly I am not real thrilled with Jackson's performance or The Rams so far. Do you expect Jackson to turn around his year and would you make this trade?
Jeff Dean [Frisco, TX]
A:
I'm not ready to discard Jackson. I think he's a big-time back, and I think he'll turn things around -- at least to a degree. He's always going to catch lots of passes; that helps him in a lot of formats. Keep in mind that the first two weeks, he's played against two of the better run defenses -- the Giants and Eagles. As the schedule gets easier, he should come around. I just wish that more of his easier games were coming sooner. The Rams' next five are against Seattle, Buffalo, Washington, Dallas and New England. I think they'll lose all five of those.
Question 14:
In a 12 team league, I have Brees and Cutler as my QBs. The guy that lost Brady is begging me to trade one of them to him, but so far, his best offer is Ronnie Brown. What level RB or WR should I expect to receive for either QB?
TOM HICKS [DURHAM, NC]
A:
Brees and Cutler are top-4 quarterbacks. He thinks he's getting one of those guys for a half-time running back from one of the league's worst teams? Brown is hardly even worth a roster spot in a 12-team league. If this guy isn't serious about solving his quarterback problem, you'll have to start dealing with other teams.
Question 15:
What is your take on Larry Johnson both for this year and in the future. Most of my fantasy football friends are down on him. I am not so down on him as they are. After only two games I think it is really to soon to write him off. I have offered Jerricho Cotchery & Ray Rice for him. He would be my 3rd rb in a pt per reception league with M Barber & R Grant being my other two rb's. What are your thoughts.
JOHN SHELBROCK [FRANKENMUTH, MI]
A:
I'm not a big fan of running backs on bad teams. There's a strong correlation between rushing production (especially touchdowns) and winning games. So when you've got a team that's not going win more than four games, that really works against their tailback. Also, while this is a PPR league, Kansas City has been pulling Johnson on passing downs.
Question 16:
So what is going on with WRs in Seattle. Does Engram still have the same long-term value with the signing of Koren Robinson and Colbert?
Randall Brater [WASHINGTON, DC]
A:
I don't think those guys affect Engram. Engram will return following the week 4 bye, and he should be their top receiver during the final 13 weeks of the season. Obtaining K-Rob and K-Col speaks more to the team's injury problems -- and the suspect play of Courtney Taylor, who's bombed in both of his starts.
Question 17:
Hey Ian, I was offered a trade, no blockbuster or anything, but I respect your opinion and wanted to run it past you first. I'm weak at TE and the other guy is weak at WR. With V. Davis and D. Lee on my squad, I have my choice between Scheffler or Gonzo, for L. Evans. We start 3 WR's and my other WR's are Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Joey Galloway and Robert Meachem. Am I giving up too much and who do you like better at TE?
Ryan Logan [MINNEAPOLIS, MN]
A:
Buffalo is a team on the rise. Evans is their clear No. 1 receiver -- the type of guy you expect to finish with about 80 catches, 1,200 yards and 8 TDs. Along with Johnson & Johnson, he starts every week for your team. If you move him, what is your contingency plan at wide receiver? Meachem is hardly playing for New Orleans. Galloway is 36 and could be down for a few weeks with an ankle injury. You would be better off, I think, offering the guy Galloway and either of your two tight ends for the lesser of his tight ends (his choice).
Question 18:
what is your prognosis on Hank Baskett?
JOSEPH DAVEY [EUREKA, CA]
A:
I don't think he has any fantasy value -- either now or long-term. Not fast enough. Will never be more than a bit player.
Question 19:
Which RB would you rather have in a dynasty keeper league. M Turner, M Forte or E Graham?
Gary Wool [Philadelphia, PA]
A:
I'll give Forte a slight edge over Turner. Forte should catch more passes, and he's younger. I think he'll be the starter in Chicago for a long time.
Question 20:
I'm looking to upgrade a wideout, so I've proposed sending Muhsin Muhammad and Brandon Jackson for TJ Houshmanzadeh. The guy needs some depth at RB (only Tomlinson, Brandon Jacobs, and Kevin Smith on roster), so I figure I'm doing him a favor. Fair trade?
jason gingerich [West Granby, CT]
A:
I don't think he'll do. A painfully slow, lesser receiver and a handcuff running back for a potentially solid wide receiver. Maybe he would consider it if he had Ryan Grant, but for this team, I doubt he'll even return your e-mail.
Question 21:
I have been offered Wes Welker and either Favre or D. Anderson for Eli Manning. I already have Peyton as my QB, and Fitzgerald, Harrison and Chambers as my WRs. I'm leaning toward Favre with Welker. Which way would you go?
Scott Kopischke [Menomonee Falls, WI]
A:
Sounds good to me. I think about 90 percent of fantasy leaguers would opt for Favre and Welker. A slight downgrade at the backup quarterback spot, but you add another reliable pair of hands to your receiving corps. I would also do the trade for Anderson. With a family fishing trip planned, the Manning boys I think talked to the league into giving them both the same bye week -- they're both off in week 4. Anderson has a very good matchup that week -- at Cincinnati.
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Question 3: Why are you continuing to...
Posted by Gary Viscum | Sep. 19 at 09:19 PM
I am considering dropping James and adding Hightower, I also have Jacobs, Forte and J. Lewis. May I have your opionion Ian and whomever else wants to add thier two cents. Thanks
Question 18: what is your prognosis on...
Posted by LARRY JEFFERSON | Sep. 23 at 07:04 PM
Week 4 QB's...I have Romo as my starter but Cutler's my back-up and he's playing KC this week. Seems like I should switch. What you think? larry jefferson dallas, tx.
Question 18: what is your prognosis on...
Posted by BOB MCKINLAY | Sep. 24 at 02:42 PM
week 4 QB's. Romo or Cutler. Trade one and upgrade at another position.