Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Jul. 10 at 03:58 PM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I've been in an auction leauge for 3 years. I've had great success mostly due to the downloadable auction values from Fantasy Index. I bought my magazine last week and visited the site ready to download. Where are they? The page looks sharp, but I'm having trouble getting to the best parts of it. I hope you haven't discontinued this valuable resource.
Michael Meal [LOCKPORT, NY]
A:
They’re having some technical issues getting some stuff up. But you should soon (at least I hope soon) see the auction values, as well as the stat projections. All that stuff left my computer on July 1, just like it always does. I did 120 different versions of the auction prices this year. If you’re anxious to get started on those, send me an e-mail and I’ll send them to you directly. Be sure to specify which format you’re interested in. We’ve got 8, 10, 12, 14 and 16 teams. With or without tight ends. With or without defenses. And with either two or three receivers being used as starters. And with three different scoring systems – TD-only, performance and now also with the point-per-reception wrinkle. Again, that stuff should show up on the web soon and apologies for the delay. Anyone needing it in a hurry can contact me through the mailbag.
Question 2:
Hi Ian - Love the Magazine as usual. I normally don't submit these types of questions but ... I am in a 12-team league TD only with Passing TDs worth 4 and Rushing/Receiving worth 6 points and they are worth double over 50 yards. We also give a bonus 3 points for 100/300 games. I have to keep 3 players out of this group.
Romo, Kitna, Ronnie Brown, Benson, Holt, Roy Williams, Evans. Normally I would say Brown, Benson, and Holt.
But Evans has me thinking b/c of the long TDs he scored and he ranked 3rd last year in our league behind only Owens and Harrison.
DAVID DeNARDO [WEST MIFFLIN, PA]
A:
In these dog days of June and July, I’ve spent considerable time studying the lengths of touchdowns that wide receivers score. It’s a project we’ve been working on to fully automate stat projections and auction prices for leagues such as yours (with more value given for longer touchdowns). I’ve studied the distances of touchdowns scored by wide receivers over the last 10 years (and these are TD catches only by wide receivers – not by tight ends or running backs). They break out like this:
12% from 1-4 yards in length
17% from 5-9 yards
23% from 10-19 yards
16% from 20-29 yards
12% from 30-39 yards
8% from 40-49 yards
8% from 50-69 yards
4% from 70-plus yards
Now, those are numbers for an AVERAGE wide receiver. Lee Evans isn’t an average wide receiver. With his speed, he’s going to score a higher percentage of touchdowns from long range. He’s scored 24 TDs in his three years in the pros, and half of those touchdowns have come from outside 30 yards – 33, 33, 37, 43, 44, 46, 46, 56, 69, 77, 83 and 83 yards. I’ve got a different template for explosive receivers like him, and Evans is one of the few guys that will get it. For your league, where it looks like the only bonuses kick in at 50 yards, I suggest you work under the assumption that Evans will score 2-3 TDs from outside that range.
I’m not a big fan of Ronnie Brown and he’ll run behind a crummy offensive line, so I would choose to protect Evans. I believe Evans will be a top-10 receiver in your format.
Question 3:
I am in a 10-team league that gives a point per reception and I pick 9th. Joseph Addai and Laurence Maroney are the only two good keeper picks in our league (we do a 5th-round keeper rule) Looking at your rankings, assuming my top 8 players are gone (LT, SJax, LJ, Westbrook, Bush, Manning, Gore, Alexander) would you consider going with 2 stud WRs right away (you have Smith ranked 8), or would you take a RB like Parker or Henry in round 1?
MICHAEL KOLTON [GREEN BAY, WI]
A:
In those PPR leagues, wide receivers are extremely valuable (particularly if you’re starting three), so I wouldn’t be opposed to starting off with two wide receivers. There are enough good running backs that you’ll be able to patch together a running back corps. The safer route, though, and the one that I’d choose would be to get out of those first two picks with one running back and one wide receiver. That way, you won’t be left forcing some mid-round picks on mediocre running backs when there are some lesser wide receivers on the board that you like.
Question 4:
I am in a 10-team league and each team can keep up to three keepers each year. Each team starts 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, and a K, TE, Def. It is one point per reception, with 6 points for all TDs and 1 point for 25 yards passing and 1 point for 10 yards
rush/rec. I currently have the following possible keepers - LT, LJ, Addai, Romo, and Eli. As of now, which three would you recommend. I am assuming LT and LJ are the obvious choices for the first two, but the third?
Rick Anderson [SUN PRAIRIE, WI]
A:
I’d keep Addai. Even with your two-quarterback rule, ask yourself which three guys would be selected first if your league were starting from scratch. Tomlinson obviously would go first. I think Addai and Johnson would both go in the top 8. I would keep both of those guys, then be open to moving one of them in a trade.
Question 5:
I am in a 10-team keeper league. Standard points -- 10 for every 10 yards rushing, receiving, 25 passing, 6 pts all TDs, ppr, etc. We are keeping up to 2 players each and you lose the round (15 rounds) in which they were picked last year. I am keeping LT -- no brainer. My dilemma is the other player to keep, disregarding all positions but RB (I have Fitzgerald for a 3rd, T.O. for a 4th, Vick for a 15th but I'm not considering keeping any of them). I have Portis, who I traded for, that I would have to give up a 2nd rounder for -- he was drafted in the 1st but I already lost my 1st. My others are Thomas Jones for a 6th, Tatum Bell for an 8th, or Marion Barber for an 11th. I know as far as value for the round goes, I should take Barber but do I really pass up Portis for my 2nd, where he won't be available if I let him go. Or do I take Thomas Jones who is also a value pick as I have seen him rated around the 3rd-4th round and personally think he is a 2nd round value in that offense behind a rising o-line. This shouldn't even be considered but would you keep Baltimore's D and lose your 14th-round pick and just load up on RBs, which is what I do anyway. I've been going back and forth on this all offseason. Any thoughts?
Troy Smith [Tickfaw, La.]
A:
I wouldn’t keep Portis. If no teams protected anybody, would he be a top-20 pick? I don’t think so. So why would you want to forfeit a second-round pick to get him. I would keep Tomlinson, and I’d be going back-and-forth between Terrell Owens and Marion Barber. Barber is the better “deal,” so he’d be the guy I would protect. Owens should be pretty good, but at best he’s going to go one round before you would have picked him anyway. You might be able to get him with that fourth-round pick you would have forfeited.
Question 6:
I am in a 10-team league with keepers drafted after round 10. I have LJ & T.Henry for 1 more year, L.Maroney & Kitna for 2.
Do I go after a top RB, Manning, or trade out of the first round and pick up value?
MARK SKAROS [JACKSON, WI]
A:
I think you have to be open to doing anything. You always have to be open to trading out of the first round or trading into the first round. You do so if the trade results in you getting more talent. You’ll have to see what people are offering and measure it. It looks like you’ve got plenty of talent, so you should be looking to win this year.
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Question 5: I am in a 10-team...
Posted by Michael Rogers | Jul. 11 at 05:15 AM
Portis should definitely be a top 20 pick. Gibbs might have used a platoon situation at RB back in his first go-round with the Skins in the 1930's, but this is Snyder's team now. Do you really think he will sit back and watch Portis stand on the sideline when he's healthy? Do you think Portis will stand for it? Finally, do you really think Betts is on the same level as Portis? I would say no to each of these. Assuming he stays healthy, Portis is a Top 5 or 6 back in 2007 (the usual reasons--solid o-line, schedule, run-oriented coach, etc.). Don't buy Gibbs' rhetoric.
Question 5: I am in a 10-team...
Posted by Troy Smith | Jul. 11 at 08:27 AM
Thomas Jones is actually going to cost me an 8th rounder not a 6th and barber will cost me a 12th not an 11th. sorry i was off when reading out my draft sheet. Does this change anything or does it make barber worth even more to me?