Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Sep. 25 at 08:09 PM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
Three weeks is a small sample, but scoring is down at least 10% in my league this year. Is this just because fantasy 'bench players' have stolen more points than usual, or is scoring down in the NFL thus far?
L DALE GANDER [SUN PRAIRIE, WI]
A:
Scoring is actually up a little this year -- 22.1 points per game (per team). That's almost a half point higher than anything we've seen since the league went to 32 teams in 2002. It was at 21.7 last year and back in 2002. In only one of those other four recent years has it been over 21 points. I'm not sure why that hasn't been reflected in the scoring in your local league; maybe fewer of the owners are subscribing to our weekly products?
Question 2:
How are you keeping Witten and Gates out of your top 35? If you compare their projected point advantage over an "average TE" to, for example, S. Smith's point advantage over an "average WR". Witten and Gates come out on top. Yet you place Smith high in your overall rankings without the top two TEs cracking in the top 35.
Mark Kroes [TIPTON, CA]
A:
Lots of factors come into play. League size, scoring system, roster requirements, etc. In a PPR format, I've got Witten currently as the No. 16 player on my board. Mostly, it comes down to positional scarcity. There are a lot of good tight ends out there. On a week to week basis, you can actually find acceptable production at the position on the waiver wire -- guys who aren't even on teams. Watch, for example, what Billy Miller, Bo Scaife and Brent Celek do this week -- those guys probably weren't even drafted in your league. Anthony Fasano has done nicely in Miami. It's much harder to find those kind of acceptable fill-in options at wide receiver, because in a lot of leagues, each team is starting three of them (and carrying 3-4 more in reserve). If you were to compare the production of Steve Smith plus the Waiver Wire Flavor of the Week tight end versus Jason Witten plus the Waiver Wire Flavor of the Week wide receiver, it would be no contest -- Smith in walk.
Question 3:
Our league is a little different than most. I was allowed to take Bobby Engram (SEA), but get Antonio Bryant (TB) as a fill-in until after the bye week (week 4). At that time, I have to pick between them. Which one would you take?
DAVID SMITH [WALLS, MS]
A:
Probably Engram. I think he'll catch a half-dozen passes in the vast majority of Seattle's remaining games. But Bryant should be a nice fill-in option this week. Bryant caught 10 passes last week at Chicago, and he'll be their featured guy again this week with Joey Galloway out with a foot injury.
Question 4:
I don't have a backup QB. On the waiver wire are Brian Griese and Kerry Collins. I think Collins is a better player, but it seems like Griese will throw a zillion passes each game (unless his arm falls of, which could happen). Which one would you take in a league with Yahoo! scoring?
DAVID SMITH [WALLS, MS]
A:
I'll go Griese. Both have favorable matchups this week. Collins faces a Minnesota defense that is much better against the run than pass -- so this is a week where the Titans should have to throw a respectable number of passes. With Griese, you're getting a guy who attempted 67 passes last week, and the Bucs are at home against a Green Bay defense with a beat up secondary (Al Harris is out for the year, and neither Atari Bigby nor Charles Woodson practiced on either Wednesday or Thursday).
Question 5:
How come you have L Pope as the 7th ranked TE in TD format. He has caught 2 passes in the first 3 games. I assume he is targeted close to the goal line but wouldn't you think someone like Tony Gonzalez who has been targeted 30 times with 15 catches is to more likely to score more TDs?
RODNEY NESBIT [REDONDO BEACH, CA]
A:
My estimation is that Pope will catch about 20 percent of Arizona's touchdown passes. Prior to missing the last five games last year, he caught 5 of the team's 21 TD passes. I saw them try to get him the ball on a quick slant at the goal line in the San Francisco game. With Gonzalez, I think he's more likely to finish with almost 30 percent of his team's TD passes. But Kansas City is a lesser team. 30 percent of 15 TD passes is a smaller number than 20 percent of 25 TD passes.
Question 6:
Due to Detroit's bad start yet again is it time to trade calvin johnson? Would you consider calvin johnson and gates for brandon marshall?
Bill Petilli [Mt. Vernon, NY]
A:
Sounds like a good proposal to me. Gets you out of having to worry about the Lions. Once they start rolling Drew Stanton and Dan Orlovsky through the lineup, it will be tough for Johnson to put up big numbers.
Question 7:
I am in a 12 team keeper league with roster limits up to 20 per team with IR. My running backs are Westbrook, Kevin Smith, Chris Perry, Laurence Maroney, Justin Fargas. My receivers are Owens, Boldin, Steve "Sucker punch" Smith and Bowe. I just released Rudi Johnson for Bryant Johnson. Did I make a mistake or am I doing an old Woody Hayes-"better having him on my bench than playing against me?"
BRETT CARON [LEWIS CENTER, OH]
A:
I'd rather have Rudi Johnson. Bryant Johnson has a hamstring injury; I don't think he'll play (he didn't practice on Wednesday or Thursday). With Rudi Johnson, I think he'll probably be Detroit's most productive running back from this point going forward.
Question 8:
Have you ever intentionally played a player you knew was on a bye? I ask because I tried to pick up Jerramy Stevens, but I was last on waivers and the team in front of me picked him up. I got Anthony Fasano instead, who is on a bye. I am in 12 team yardage with a flex player league. If I let ANYONE on my team go they WILL be picked up. There are a total of 16 TE's on the league's rosters. What are your thoughts on this unorthodox play?
JOHN RUPPE [FORT MYERS, FL]
A:
Are you sure that you can't cut anybody? No other team put a claim in for Fasano this week. Why not release him and re-sign him next week? There are a number of serviceable one-week tight ends out there. Maybe Billy Miller of the Saints or Brent Celek of the Eagles. I don't like taking zeros, even at the tight end position.
Question 9:
12 team league. Allowed 3 QBs on Roster.
Currently have Jay Cutler, Gus Frerotte and Chad Pennington in Yardage/TD league. I just picked up Gus, replacing Tavaris Jackson this week. My question is should I go ahead and pick up Ramsey in case of an injury to Cutler or stick with these two mediocre QBs. If Ramsey, who do you drop?
JOE SERVI [CORONA, CA]
A:
Frerotte has no value to you. He has the same bye week as Cutler. So to you, Patrick Ramsey is more valuable than Frerotte. Pennington is playing at home against Buffalo in week 8; if you're comfortable with that matchup, then he's your No. 2.
Question 10:
Totally frivolous question that occurred to me while watching the game last night. Have the Chargers completely abandoned their dark blue helmets? I thought the white ones were accessories for their throwback uniforms a few seasons back, but it looks like they've switched over to them completely.
PAUL GRUBB [FORT COLLINS, CO]
A:
They actually ditched them last year. They wore the white helmets for the entire 2007 season. I have no idea if they intend to bring back the dark helmets for a Throwback (But Not All The Way Back) Weekend.
Question 11:
Ian, our playoffs are weeks 14-16 and I was wondering what teams have the easiest schedules those weeks? I'm trying to build my team for the playoffs now rather than later. thanks, Jason
Jason Howes [STEWARTVILLE, MN]
A:
Let's try that one in another week or two, after there are more wins and stats to be counted. Right now, I'd be looking simply for matchups against the teams that we know are going to be hapless -- Detroit, Kansas City, St. Louis, Oakland. There's only one team that will play two of those opponents in weeks 14-16 -- San Diego.
Question 12:
Hi Ian: one of the team owners in our league has just made the following offer. I trade Braylon Edwards for Maurice Jones-Drew. This is a point per reception league and my other rb's are Barber & Grant. My other wr's are T Owens, C Johnson, Steve Smith & J Cotchery. Right now I love this offer because he is one of the top rb's as far as pass targets.
JOHN SHELBROCK [FRANKENMUTH, MI]
A:
Go for it. I unfortunately traded away Jones-Drew for Braylon Edwards during our league's auction to free up some salary space. I'd love to have that one back.
Question 13:
New member this year. Love the commentary in your Thursday output. Anyways, I have Larry Johnson and Steve Smith and I'm thinking of trading the two of them for Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush. I know I'm losing a little bit at WR but I think I'm gaining more at RB. I'm in a PPR league where receptions are worth .5 points each. It seems like a good trade to me. Your thoughts?
Jay Tennant [Chicago, IL]
A:
Looks good to me. Steve Smith to Calvin Johnson is definitely a downgrade, but it would be nice to wash your hands of Larry Johnson. Johnson isn't playing on passing downs. He'll give you essentially nothing as a receiver. Bush is the best pass-catching running back in the league right now -- I think he'll continue to catch a half-dozen passes per game.
Question 14:
I have been offered an interesting trade and I'm not sure how to evaluate it. I am in a 10 team keeper league, and have been offered Tom Brady and Jonathan Stewart for Larry Johnson. I am in good shape with RBs ( I have LJ, Addai, Portis, and Chris Perry), so while this trade doesn't help me at all this year, it wouldn't neccesarily set me back too far either and it would definitely help me next year. Also, I can't keep LJ next year due to league rules. What do you think?
Dave Jost [EUGENE, OR]
A:
Do it. I think I'd take Stewart over LJ straight up, and here you also get maybe 2009's best quarterback tossed in.
Readers' Comments
Add a Comment
Already a registered user? Please sign in to add comments.
To add comments, you must become a registered user of our site. To register, please click here.
Question 2: How are you keeping Witten...
Posted by Mark Kroes | Sep. 26 at 01:10 PM
Makes sense... But if you were to lose S. Smith, you would then be starting your top backup WR (of which you probably already had 2) and its probable that the WR you pick up to replace him will never start on your team. However, if you were to lose Witten, you would probably be starting a waiver wire TE. All that being said I would prefer to have Smith, but not "in walk". Thats why I think Witten deserves to be in the top 35... Is this logic way off base??
Question 8: Have you ever intentionally played...
Posted by BRYAN BERTSCH | Sep. 26 at 06:12 AM
I'm in a similar boat this week with Dallas Clark on bye and nobody I want to stick out there. I made a proposal to an owner who has three RBs on bye...trading a RB I have on my bench for a "player to drop." I drop his player, pick up a TE, then we trade back next week. Mine is a cut-throat league and "one week trades" have been established.
Question 8: Have you ever intentionally played...
Posted by L DALE GANDER | Sep. 26 at 08:38 PM
Just to clarify to those who may not know better - 'one week trades' would be ruled as collusion with severe penalties (including possible dismissal) in 99% of fantasy leagues. So unless you play in Bryan's league, I wouldn't recommend using his strategy.