Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Oct. 30 at 08:45 PM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
How much of your rankings are based on performance to date and how much on your evalutation of a player and what you think going forward. I'm looking at David Garrard. He has 6 TDs, 4 Int and a passing rating of 88. I see lower-rated players who (fantasy-wise) are doing considerably better: J.Campbell with 8 TD, 0 Int, rating of 100; I see Pennington with 7 TD, 3 Int, rating of 100. I could include Schaub and Delhomme, as well. Not to sound too critical, because I love your terrific product, but I don't see it. Garrard was good last year, and he's good as an on-the-field QB, but as a fantasy QB, he's been a bust. Your thoughts?
Mojo Smith [WALLS, MS]
A:
The projections you see each Tuesday are based on what I feel guys will do in the remaining games. Randy Moss gets no credit for having scored 23 TDs last year or 17 as a rookie -- I'm interested in gauging what he's going to do in these remaining nine games. In the case of Garrard, you may be neglecting to include his production as a runner. He's a guy who tends to run for 15-25 yards per game, and that translates into an additional 30-50 passing yards in typical fantasy systems. In our rankings, we're not ranking the guys based on the NFL's passer rating system. Instead, we're giving 1 point for every 20 passing yards, 1 point for every 10 rushing yards, 4 points for TD passes and 6 points for every TD run. When you look at the players in that way, you'll see that Garrard this year has actually been better than either Campbell or Pennington. Garrard is at 17.0 points per game, while Pennington is at 16.3 and Campbell is at 15.8.
Finally, I think Garrard is going to be better in the second half of the season. He's been more productive in his recent games than he was earlier in the year, and he's got some favorable matchups coming up. His next two games are against the Bengals and Lions.
Question 2:
With the trade deadline in our keeper league approaching, could you give me your top 15 at RB and WR in a ppr keeper format? Also, what are your thoughts on Tom Brady for next year? With all of the complications from his surgeries, does he still look like a solid keeper in the 8th round next year?
ZACH LEAVITT [ENGLEWOOD, CO]
A:
That's an interesting one to ponder. Below are my lists, along with the Sept. 1 2009 ages for each player. Let me know if I forgot anyone (I realize there's no Terrell Owens -- with him being 35 on opening day next year, he's not on my list).
WIDE RECEIVERS (keeper list -- PPR format)
1. Brandon Marshall (25)
2. Larry Fitzgerald (26)
3. Calvin Johnson (23)
4. Andre Johnson (28)
5. Steve Smith (30)
6. Roddy White (27)
7. Reggie Wayne (30)
8. Randy Moss (32)
9. Greg Jennings (25)
10. Braylon Edwards (26)
11. Lee Evans (28)
12. Anquan Boldin (28)
13. Anthony Gonzalez (24)
14. Dwayne Bowe (24)
15. Wes Welker (28)
RUNNING BACKS (keeper list -- PPR format)
1. Adrian Peterson (24)
2. Steven Jackson (26)
3. Reggie Bush (24)
4. Matt Forte (23)
5. Brian Westbrook (29)
6. Clinton Portis (27)
7. Frank Gore (26)
8. Marshawn Lynch (23)
9. Marion Barber (26)
10. Chris Johnson (23)
11. Maurice Jones-Drew (24)
12. Jonathan Stewart (22)
13. Ronnie Brown (27)
14. LaDainian Tomlinson (30)
15. Darren McFadden (22)
16. Michael Turner (27)
17. Joseph Addai (26)
18. Willis McGahee (27)
19. Brandon Jacobs (27)
20. Felix Jones (22)
Question 3:
In the PPR league rankings, you have Addai rated higher than Ronnie Brown, but when reading the game previews it seems like you are higher on Brown than Addai. How do you consider the rankings via the game previews? Do you do one first than the other?
Marco Tavares [Billerica, MA]
A:
We look at each game individual. Consider the offenses, defenses, and then make our projections. And by projection, it's largely a TEAM projection. How those stats are then divided into individual player numbers is fairly constant. (Steven Jackson, for example, is projected to account for 86 percent of the Rams' rushing yards, so if we project them to run for 150 yards, he'll be up at 129 rushing yards). Those percentage numbers don't get messed with as much on Thursdays as the overall team numbers. In this case, we like Miami's matchup against a bad Denver defense. We've got the Dolphins at 245 passing and 130 rushing yards in this game. As far as touchdowns, we've got them at 1.45 TD passes and .85 TD runs. That's 2.3 offensive touchdowns overall, which is in line for a team that we feel will score about 22-23 points. The Indianapolis numbers, on the other hand, are as follows: 240 passing yards, 80 rushing yards, 1.65 TD passes, .75 TD runs. There's the interesting dynamic in the Colts-Patriots game; Indianapolis has scored a rushing touchdown six games in a row -- it uses the run at the goal line -- while the Patriots haven't allowed any rushing TDs outside of that one aberration game against the Dolphins.
But bottom line: we have the Dolphins rushing for 50 more yards than Indianapolis this week. We also have the Dolphins finishing with .10 more TD runs.
So why Addai over Brown? I've got Addai accounting for 80 percent of the Colts' rushing production. Brown is more of a time-share guy. I've got him at 51 percent of Miami's rushing production -- both yards and TDs. (That includes both Ricky Williams, as well as quarterback and receiver rushing yards).
When you run all the numbers through the computer, the two backs come out pretty similar. Addai clocks out at 78 total yards (64 rushing, 14 receiving), while Brown is at 83 yards (66 rushing, 15 receiving, 2 passing). But in terms of TDs, Addai works out to .60 of a touchdown; Brown is down at .43 of a touchdown. So I give the slight edge to Addai. Not much difference, though, between those guys this week -- at least in my estimation. If you've got a gut feeling about Brown and want to go that route, I have no problem with that. It's your team.
Question 4:
Josh Morgan looked great in the preseason, and after his recovery looked to be rounding back into form until last weekend. What happened? I didn't see the game, but I see he was hardly targeted at all. What is in store for him with Hill throwing to him? Sometimes groin injuries can be as bad as hamstring injuries when it comes to lingering. What's your opinion? I had him stashed on my roster thinking he'd be a good fill-in for the playoffs but am beginning to think I'd be better off with some other #3 receiver.
Donald DeKeyser [GREEN BAY, WI]
A:
He had only two passes thrown his way in the Seattle game. One was an incompletion in the end zone, just before Jason Hill scored in the fourth quarter. I don't see Morgan as a starter-quality receiver right now. San Francisco's passing game could be ready to regress. Mike Singletary might want go with the run more, cutting back on the interceptions, fumbles and sacks. And we need to see how well Hill plays in that offense; he might not look downfield as often as J.T. O’Sullivan did. In my eyes, Morgan is one of those guys you stick in your last roster spot. Maybe the team comes around and develops into something. He's got a couple of favorable matchups late in the year. But you can't count on him at this point.
Question 5:
Thanks for weekly updates regarding strength of schedule--they're helpful. One question: is there a way to quantify which defenses have the most favorable schedules through Week 16? I'd love to know which defenses will face the weakest and most sack/turnover prone offenses. Thanks!
Whitney Yost [NORRISTOWN, PA]
A:
I can run those numbers. Not sure how much value they’ll be, but I can run them.
Looks like the 49ers, Bengals and Patriots are the easiest schedules in terms of sacks – that is, in terms of their opponents allowing sacks. Note that two of the heavyweight defenses (Giants and Titans) will play a lot of games over the next eight weeks against teams that don’t tend to allow sacks.
sacks
4.86 San Francisco
4.00 Cincinnati
3.63 New England
3.13 Detroit
3.00 Pittsburgh
3.00 St. Louis
2.75 Kansas City
2.29 Washington
2.25 Buffalo
2.25 Jacksonville
2.25 Minnesota
2.25 Oakland
2.00 NY Jets
1.88 Arizona
1.88 Houston
1.86 Dallas
1.75 Chicago
1.63 Green Bay
1.63 Seattle
1.57 Carolina
1.50 Baltimore
1.50 Miami
1.50 Philadelphia
1.43 San Diego
1.43 Tampa Bay
1.25 Cleveland
1.13 Atlanta
1.13 Indianapolis
1.00 New Orleans
.75 NY Giants
.63 Denver
.25 Tennessee
The Chargers, Dolphins and Ravens project to face the weakest offenses the rest of the way. San Diego’s next seven opponents, on average, are scoring only 19.0 points per game – 1 under every other schedule in the league. Sounds like Ron Rivera is taking over at defensive coordinator there at a good time. With five of their eight final games also at home, the Chargers’ defense should be improved.
PPG
19.0 San Diego
20.1 Miami
20.1 Baltimore
20.4 Denver
20.4 Houston
21.1 Indianapolis
21.8 Buffalo
22.0 Arizona
22.0 New Orleans
22.2 Philadelphia
22.3 New England
22.5 Carolina
22.5 NY Jets
22.6 Jacksonville
22.7 Cleveland
22.7 Tennessee
22.8 San Francisco
22.9 Washington
23.1 Oakland
23.1 Tampa Bay
23.3 Chicago
23.4 Pittsburgh
23.5 Dallas
24.0 Minnesota
24.2 Seattle
24.6 Detroit
25.1 Cincinnati
25.2 St. Louis
25.4 Kansas City
25.5 Green Bay
25.6 Atlanta
26.2 NY Giants
Question 6:
Ian, I have Forte, Graham and McAllister on my roster. We start two each week and in week 10 Tampa has a bye. Should I drop Deuce for someone like Leon Washington or Selvin Young? Maybe even Tim Hightower? They are all available and I'm not sure Deuce will not be suspended by then.
DARRELL PRESTELLA [CARSON CITY, NV]
A:
The Saints are playing that week at Atlanta, which ranks in the bottom 10 in run defense. If the Deuce is still around, he should be a pretty good starter for you. I would be inclined, therefore, to hang onto him. I would release him only if you were able to secure some kind of other knockout option -- somebody a lot better than Washington or Young.
Question 7:
I have been offered Frank Gore, Kevin Curtis and Chargers D for Colston, Kevin Smith and Titans D. Would you pull the trigger on this?
Shane Nelan [ROCHESTER, NY]
A:
Definitely. Gore is a big-time back. He's the only player there of any real value. Colston might develop into a good receiver, but I think they're going to spread things awfully thin in New Orleans for the rest of this season. The Saints-Chargers game was one of the ones I keyed on last week, and Colston was on the field less than Lance Moore and Devery Henderson. He was down there with Robert Meachem, seeing just spot duty. No way, in my opinion, is Colston going to get back to being what he was last year, when the team was forcing him the ball when it was inside the 10. Kevin Smith is just a part-time player in Detroit. I don't think Curtis is anything special (though he has a strong history against the team he'll face this week -- seems like he always scores against Seattle). In weighing defenses, it would depend on scoring systems; the Chargers have struggled this year but are better on kick returns.
Question 8:
In a TD-only format, I've been offered LenDale White for T.O. The league starts 3WR/TE, and I already have Evans, Gates, and Jennings on my roster. My starting RBs are Thomas Jones and Jones-Drew. Should I pull the trigger on this deal?
Adam Rich [OSHKOSH, WI]
A:
TD-only leagues are a different animal. Completely different from the format involving yards. And in that game, when you've got a running back who's punching in 1-yard TDs week after week, those guys are solid gold. White has that role for the Titans, and it's a good team. Owens, meanwhile, is struggling in Dallas. I'd do that deal in a second.
Question 9:
Trade proposal for this week...I'm in a 12 team PPR league that starts 2 rb's and 3 wr's. RB's are S.Jackson, Forte, Chris Johnson and Thomas Jones. WR's are Fitzgerald, B.Marshall, DeSean Jackson and Driver.
Since my 3rd wr can be hit or miss from week to week and I have good rb depth, do you think trading TJones for Hines Ward or Wes Welker would make sense (I've been made an offer)? Do you prefer one of those guys over the other? Thanks for your thoughts.
Thomas Filmore [BRENTWOOD, TN]
A:
In a PPR format, I'm projecting Wes Welker to be slightly better than Thomas Jones. Welker consistently punches out a half-dozen catches per game. So if you want to transfer some of your talent from RB to WR, that's the area I would target.
Question 10:
I have to start one of these two pairs due to salary cap rules. Would you start Anquan Boldin and LJ Smith or Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez? Or is it close enough to call a wash and avoid the fee involved in picking up Gonzalez?
JOHN STOUT [CLARKSBURG, WV]
A:
That looked like a pretty serious concussion L.J. Smith suffered last week against Atlanta. I don't think he's going to play. Smith didn't practice on Wednesday or Thursday.
Question 11:
With Witten's status uncertain this week and a bye next week, I find myself searching the wire for a replacement for the next two weeks. I'm looking at a few guys but am having a tough time making a decision. I see David Martin has a great couple matchups with Denver and Seattle but I don't know how reliable he can be. And what about Winslow who is looking to bounce back against Baltimore and then has a favorable matchup with Denver? I am also looking at Mercedes Lewis, Donald Lee, Bo Scaife, Zach Miller, Kevin Boss, and Alex Smith. Who do you think would be the best two week filler?
Jake Haugen [DULUTH, MN]
A:
I'd go with Winslow. Maybe he can get back to being an elite player again. If so, maybe he's still your starter in week 11 (when the Cowboys are at Washington).
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Question 2: With the trade deadline in...
Posted by JEFF STEPHENS | Nov. 05 at 11:14 AM
I would have thought Slaton and Hightower would have worked their way on to the list.
Question 2: With the trade deadline in...
Posted by Rob Dammers | Nov. 06 at 06:48 AM
Any reason why Ray Rice is not on the keeper/dynasty RB list? Not only is he a very productive RB, he's also looking like a safer long-term pick-up than someone like D. McFadden.
Question 5: Thanks for weekly updates regarding...
Posted by jason gingerich | Oct. 31 at 09:59 AM
Your sack rankings posted are the actual sacks given up by that team's offense so far, Ian. So to find out which defenses to play, you need to find out what teams are playing San Francisco, Cincy, NE, Detroit, etc. What you posted doesn't make that clear.
Question 5: Thanks for weekly updates regarding...
Posted by jason gingerich | Oct. 31 at 10:03 AM
And your comment about the Giants and Titans defenses is wrong. The Titans, for example, play teams that mostly give up an average number of sacks, but then they play some teams like the Lions and Steelers who are very high on the sacks given up list.
Question 5: Thanks for weekly updates regarding...
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Oct. 31 at 03:03 PM
I got crossed up in sending out the sack data. Jason is correct. Somewhere along the line, I tossed the correct info and simply posted current sack data. I've got to spend the next hour or so on the Friday afternoon update. After that, I'll re-tabulate those sack numbers. The other numbers (for points allowed) are correct.