Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Dec. 11 at 03:39 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
What do you do when an owner sandbags his season in a Keeper League? We have had our league, with most of the same teams for 12 years. We had an owner this last week manipulate his lineup to apparently lose his game and set himself up to get into the "Toilet Bowl",the playoff for the worst teams to earn first choice in next year's draft order. This is the first time it has been obviously done. The side effect was that it cost another team a playoff berth. I don't want to boot an owner out, so I am looking for some other alternatives to penalize this team owner.
ADAM LOCKE [LYNNWOOD, WA]
A:
It's extremely poor form in my opinion -- disrespectful to the guys who are competing for playoff berths. It's bad enough to ruin your own team's season, but it's far worse to then start dragging down other teams. But it does happen from time to time -- both on the fantasy level, and in the mother league. The Cleveland Browns, for example, didn't make the playoffs last year because the Colts chose to rest their regulars in week 17. And the talk in Seattle is that they're going to shut down Matt Hasselbeck for the season -- let him start getting his back healthy. If the Seahawks were still in the hunt for the NFC West title, do you think there's any way that Hasselbeck wouldn't be playing? It's not a behavior that is easily legislated. In our league, the lowest scorer each week is assessed a penalty, and there's a extra charge for being the Toilet Bowl "champion". But how much can you charge a team before the fantasy league is just becoming a negative experience? What if a team, through injuries and bad luck, just happens to go 4-10? In the (Santa Clara) Bronco Alumni Football League, the loser of the "Party Bowl" has to buy all of the drinks and food for the next year's draft. 12-man league -- you're getting into some serious coin -- but they like it. For your league, you may want to use more of a behind-the-scenes approach. If you see a guy tanking a lineup, call him on it and talk him into being more considerate of the league's other, affected owners.
Question 2:
Ok, based on your assesment of Tyler Thigpen, I am assuming that if I have a less risky choice such as McNabb then you are saying use him. Am I right? I am also looking at Owens over Bowe. What do you think?
BRETT CARON [LEWIS CENTER, OH]
A:
I'm a little nervous about Thigpen. He's cooled off a bit recently. But I've worked the risk into the stat models. I'm not projecting him to throw for 270 yards -- I've got him down around 230. And I'm not projecting him to throw 2-3 TDs (even though I think he might); I've got him at 1.5 TD passes. When I run the numbers, it tells me he's going to be the No. 3 quarterback on the board. So unless I've got Warner, Manning or Romo, Thigpen is definitely the guy I would start (and I am starting Thigpen, by the way, in one of my leagues). He's going up against an awfully lousy pass defense, and I think that game could be a shootout. The Chargers are a 5-point favorite in that game, but I think that's out of whack -- I see it as more of a high-scoring pick 'em type game. In assessing Thigpen, do not underestimate his value as a runner. He's run for over 20 yards in every game this year. He's got wheels, and he'll take off. In most fantasy leagues, rushing production is worth twice as much as passing, so it's like he's throwing for an extra 50 yards per game (in comparison with immobile pocket passers like Warner, Rivers and the Manning boys. There is risk involved. I may regret it. But I am starting Thigpen over McNabb and a lot of other quarterbacks this week.
Question 3:
Playoff matchup question, I have Jay Cutler and Jake Delhomme as my QB’s and Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall, Vincent Jackson (I can pick two) as my WR. The situation: My opponent has Steve Smith as his starting wide receiver and has Philip Rivers as his starting QB. Do I play Jake to off set Steve Smith? Do I sit Larry Fitzgerald to play Vincent Jackson to offset Philip Rivers? Normally I know you just play your best but Jake is playing against a Denver Def that catch stop anyone.
Paul Karrmann [CHESTER SPRGS, PA]
A:
No and no. You play your best guys -- let's let him worry about something. Delhomme isn't a top quarterback right now. Carolina has gone with a run-heavy approach, in part because Delhomme keeps throwing dumb interceptions. In their last four games, they've scored 14 touchdowns rushing versus only 3 passing. Delhomme has thrown for more than 180 yards in only one of his last five games, with just 4 TDs in those games. Cutler is your guy -- definitely. And that's also the case at wide receiver. Vincent Jackson is a hit-or-miss type guy. Two weeks ago, he was shut out entirely by Atlanta. Then last Thursday, he caught 5 passes for 148 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders. You start Fitzgerald, who's been a top-10 receiver all along. Arizona has probably the league's best passing attack, while the Vikings are great against the run but a little soft in the secondary -- you know the ball's going to be in the air.
Question 4:
How do you think Matt Jones' suspension will impact the Jags passing game? Winslow is my number one TE, but even if he plays this week I don't like his chances with Dorsey throwing to him against the Eagles defense. Do you think Marcedes Lewis will get more looks with Jones out?
David Grace [TARZANA, CA]
A:
Jerry Porter is also out there. He injured his groin at Chicago, so the Jaguars are running out of receivers. I think Reggie Williams will be their top guy now. Maybe they can get something out of Mike Walker, who had a productive game earlier in the season. And a few more looks for Dennis Northcutt and Lewis. But is it a passing attack that can help you win in a fantasy league? I don't think so. There are only three defenses in the league that are ranked over 15 spots higher against the pass than the run. As luck would have it, Jacksonville is playing two of those teams the next two weeks -- Green Bay and Indianapolis. I expect them to heavily emphasize the run in both of those games.
Question 5:
In regards to Calvin Johnson. What is the most yardage ever produced with the least amount of receptions? I mean this guy is lucky to catch 3 balls a game, it doesn't help when you're hardly targeted, and he still puts up incredible stats. Simply amazing!
JOHN RUPPE [FORT MYERS, FL]
A:
He’s having a great year. Right now, he’s at 56 catches for 1,055 yards – 18.8 per catch – and with 9 TDs. But let’s not go overboard. Since the league went to the 16-game season in 1978, there have been 39 wide receivers who’ve gone over 1,000 yards and had a higher average yards per catch. I’ve listed them below. Note, by the way, that only two of these receivers come from the current decade.
No Yds Avg Player (Year) Team
44 1146 26.0 Willie Anderson (1989) Rams
48 1169 24.4 Wesley Walker (1978) NYJ
53 1273 24.0 Eddie Brown (1988) Cin.
44 1029 23.4 Stanley Morgan (1981) N.E.
44 1002 22.8 Stanley Morgan (1979) N.E.
45 1013 22.5 Harold Jackson (1979) N.E.
50 1122 22.4 Michael Haynes (1991) Atl.
58 1300 22.4 James Lofton (1983) G.B.
62 1361 22.0 James Lofton (1984) G.B.
51 1097 21.5 Willie Anderson (1990) Rams
49 1032 21.1 Wes Chandler (1982) S.D.
56 1176 21.0 Kevin House (1981) T.B.
49 1016 20.7 Wesley Walker (1986) NYJ
60 1244 20.7 Steve Watson (1981) Den.
69 1409 20.4 Mike Quick (1983) Phil.
67 1368 20.4 Eric Moulds (1998) Buff.
64 1306 20.4 Jerry Rice (1988) S.F.
54 1084 20.1 Ashley Lelie (2004) Den.
54 1082 20.0 Frank Lewis (1979) Buff.
82 1635 19.9 Torry Holt (2000) St.L.
78 1555 19.9 Roy Green (1984) St.L.
70 1382 19.7 Henry Ellard (1989) Rams
51 1003 19.7 Mark Duper (1983) Mia.
67 1313 19.6 Mark Duper (1986) Mia.
52 1014 19.5 Henry Ellard (1996) Wash.
55 1072 19.5 Harold Carmichael (1978) Phil.
70 1358 19.4 Alfred Jenkins (1981) Atl.
68 1313 19.3 Randy Moss (1998) Minn.
53 1022 19.3 Freddie Scott (1981) Det.
59 1134 19.2 Louis Lipps (1985) Pitt.
59 1133 19.2 Steve Watson (1983) Den.
60 1150 19.2 Mark Clayton (1986) Mia.
70 1340 19.1 Gary Clark (1991) Wash.
56 1066 19.0 Gary Clark (1987) Wash.
73 1389 19.0 Mark Clayton (1984) Mia.
65 1236 19.0 Webster Slaughter (1989) Clev.
55 1044 19.0 Carlos Carson (1987) K.C.
57 1078 18.9 Carlos Carson (1984) K.C.
74 1397 18.9 Henry Ellard (1994) Wash.
Question 6:
I resist the urge to ask questions like this, but my playoff starts tomorrow, and I'm fretting. My RBs are S Jackson, C Portis, M Forte and D Williams. I can start two. Forte and Williams have been my bread and butter the past few weeks, but I'm wondering if the Portis fire is lit for December now. Should I stick with the ones that got me here, or go with my early round guns? Still reading after 18 years.
CRAIG SMITH [OZARK, MO]
A:
If you had asked me a couple of days ago, I would have said Forte and Williams -- with no hesitation. And those are still the guys I'd start for this week. But after the big blowup in Washington, with Portis complaining about being pulled out of Sunday's game and Jim Zorn coming back and pretty much saying Portis can count on being a full-time guy on Sunday, I could see Portis have a big game against a pretty bad Cincinnati defense. I also think Steven Jackson is a part of this puzzle; he's had his problems this year, but he's healthy now, and he's at home against a pretty bad Seattle defense. I think Jackson will be very good in that game, and I can guarantee you that Jackson will be a more productive pass catcher than either Portis or Williams. But you only get to start two, and I'm going Forte and Williams.
Question 7:
Hey Ian, as you've noted in the Weekly, Thigpen has a great matchup this week against SD. I've seen forecasts for 25 mph winds in KC. If those hold does Rodgers become a better play?
Brian Barrett [BOULDER, CO]
A:
Thanks for the heads up. We'll definitely want to check into the wind on Saturday (and for those who are affected, Sunday as well). If there are wind issues, I would definitely go Aaron Rodgers over Thigpen. In fact, since those guys are similar in value anyway, let's go with Rodgers over Thigpen for now -- start Thigpen over Rodgers only if you're confident that the wind ISN'T going to be a problem. Just prior to putting out the Friday supplement, I'll run a weather check on all potentially affected quarterbacks. If the wind in Arrowhead looks like a factor, I'll move Thigpen down a few spots.
Question 8:
Some quick First Round Playoff Questions for you: What are Drew Brees' chances of lighting-up up the Bears? What can I reasonably expect? Do I start the Jets DEF, or pick-up the Patriots (at OAK) or the Seahawks (at STL). I finished the regular season 13-1 thanks to your crew. I want to avoid a letdown in the 1st Round.
Whitney Yost [NORRISTOWN, PA]
A:
I'm a little worried about Brees. About a month back, the Saints lost at Atlanta, in part because they were too one-dimensional. Brees threw for 422 yards in that game, but he was intercepted three times and both of his touchdowns came in the fourth quarter -- long after the game was decided. So when these teams met again on Sunday, Sean Payton made a point of being far more balanced with his play-calling. They ran for a season-high 184 yards, but with all those extra runs, Brees was down at only 230 yards. I think that philosophy switch makes sense. Good for the Saints, but bad for fantasy leaguers. When New Orleans plays Detroit next week (and the Lions are last in run defense), I think you could see a similar type of balanced approach. We might have seen the last 300-yard game out of Brees this year. But would I have the guts to actually sit down Brees? I do not. Maybe they fall behind, the run isn't working or I've just got it wrong. I would tend to want to put him out there and take my chances with him. He passed for 320 yards and 3 TDs in week 17 at Soldier Field last year. The Chicago defense he'll play tonight is definitely a lot better against the run than pass -- a lot better. If I were in a position where I was seriously considering either going with Brees or another quarterback on Sunday, I would have my TV on for the pregame tonight. If the weather looks crappy -- high winds or snow -- then I'd sit Brees; otherwise, he'd be my guy.
As for the defenses, I'd probably go with the Jets. They've got maybe the league's best kickoff returner (Leon Washington), and it looks like J.P. Losman will start at quarterback for the Bills. He tends to take sacks and throw interceptions. New ENgland and Seattle both have good matchups, but those defenses both have major problems right now.
Question 9:
In a ten team dynasty league (keep 10 players), would you consider the following trade worthy of a league veto: Marques Colston and a top 4 1st round pick for Braylon Edwards and a late 4th round pick?
Joe Savitsky [FALLS CHURCH, VA]
A:
No. Nothing about that trade looks fishy to me. The guy with Colston is probably dying to get rid of him -- frustrated with him failing to separate himself from New Orleans' other receivers and worried about Robert Meachem coming on in 2009.
The owner with Edwards is probably pulling out his hair after watching him drop maybe a record-setting number of balls this year.
Looks like a straight up trash-for-trash trade to me.
Question 10:
I'm in a bit of a dilemma for this weeks playoff matchup.
My running backs are Steven Jackson, Brandon Jacobs, Pierre Thomas, Sammy Morris and Tatum Bell. With Jacobs knee, do I start Pierre Thomas on Thursday night, or risk starting Jacobs and having to plug in Sammy Morris or Bell.
RYAN OTTE [NATICK, MA]
A:
You can't count on Jacobs. He didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday. He looks very unlikely to play, and I don't think you'd want to play him in that game anyway -- with him being less than 100 percent. I believe New England will put up very good rushing numbers against the Raiders (who are horrible against the run), but I wouldn't be comfortable using Morris. LaMont Jordan played for Oakland last year, and my hunch is that the Patriots will dust him off and let him play a lot more than usual in this game. I think that leaves you trying to decide between Pierre Thomas and Tatum Bell. Bell could be OK in that Carolina game, but I think Thomas is your guy.
Question 11:
Round two of the playoffs i am stuck between Pierre Thomas or Jonathan Stewart any thoughts on the match up?
Kurt Maier [Lancaster, PA]
A:
Their rushing stats have been very similar the last two weeks. Stewart has run for 316 yards and 3 TDs, while Thomas has run for 311 yards and 4 TDs. Thomas is the far better receiver. Stewart has caught 2 passes for 7 yards in those last four games -- they haven't really used him as a receiver all year -- while Thomas is up at 9 catches for 117 yards and another 2 TDs in his last four games. He's a guy you can count on to finish with 15-20 receiving yards.
Stewart faces the weaker opponent. At times, Denver just looks like garbage out there, with guys running through big holes for long gainers. Thomas, meanwhile, faces a Chicago defense that at times is about as good as anyone against the run -- they rank 6th in run defense, even though they've had a couple of breakdown games. Thomas should get a few more touches -- in those past four games, he's got 21 more rushing attempts and 7 more receptions.
As with the other guy with Brees, you may want to check the weather of the game tonight before making your decision. If the winds are whipping or its snowing, that could work in favor of Thomas handling a bigger load. In his last game at Chicago, Thomas went over 100 yards both as a runner and a receiver (with both Bush and McAllister out with injuries, Thomas caught 12 passes in that game).
Question 12:
Longtime fanatic with great success due to your awesome product, so I'm in the playoffs this week with the top-seeded team. I'm deep at running back: Slaton, Turner, Gore, Rhodes, Dunn, S.Morris. Reading your weekly, I have Slaton & Turner starting. BUT, if I wake up Sunday morning and Rhodes is starting, are you saying I start Rhodes & Slaton? Please tell me what your starters would be with and without Rhodes. Only 2 RB's allowed.
Augie Cerdan [FOLSOM, CA]
A:
Sometimes I wish you could use fractions of players. When you were torn between two quarterbacks, for example, you could just opt to use both of them and take half credit for their production. In this case, as of today, I would have Slaton and Turner taking the reps with the first-team offense in practice. They're your starters. If Sunday morning rolls around and it's clear that Addai isn't going to play, then Rhodes at that point (in my opinion) becomes your No. 1 running back. Detroit is that bad against the run. Rhodes, getting 85-plus percent of the work at tailback, would be a shoo-in for 100-plus total yards and a touchdown -- at a minimum. I would then be torn between Turner and Slaton. I would expect Turner to be slightly more productive as a runner, but he won't catch any passes. I think you can pencil him in for 0 receptions for 0 yards. Slaton is a little up an down as a receiver, but he's had 40-plus yards in each of his last two games. That's a big head start.
Question 13:
I am wondering how much weight I should put on the game matchup in deciding my lineup. I have become a Romo fan since having him last season and now again. He plays great, is fun to watch, and puts up monster numbers more often than not. But he is matched up against the Giants this week while my backup, Donovan McNabb, has a cupcake to play (Browns). The "safe play" is surely McNabb but I am hesitant to go with him with only the matchup argument on his side.
Jason Kurvers [EAU CLAIRE, WI]
A:
I don't think the matchup necessarily favors McNabb. I think Romo will outproduce him this week. Philadelphia will be able to run the ball against Cleveland. In Dallas, the Giants are great against the run but not nearly as good against the pass. So I think you'll see Romo shouldering much more of the offensive load. He was pretty good in Pittsburgh last week (up until giving away the game with a dumb interception), throwing for 210 and 1 TD against the best pass defense in the league. I would start Romo over McNabb this week.
Question 14:
How do you feel about Ryan Grant this weekend? It seems like a juicy matchup for him -- Jacksonville has pretty much given up (and only 1-6 record at home) and their defense is banged up. Your thoughts?
Dave (MOJO) Smith [WALLS, MS]
A:
So now the Packers are some kind of hungry team on the rise? They just dropped out of the playoff race by losing a pair of home games to Carolina and Houston. With the NFC North title sitting in front of them for the taking, they got smoked at home by the 5-7 Texans? And now you think they're going to into Jacksonville with something to prove? Green Bay is favored and is the better team, but I was thinking the Jaguars probably would pull off the win in that one.
Question 15:
I have both Tenn backs and both NYG backs (Jacobs and Ward) and can start two. We have to submit lineups Saturday night, so assuming Jacobs is a game time decision I'm tempted to just trot out both White and Johnson and at least know I'll get one TD. Or am I playing it too safe? Should I risk one of the Giants backs? Thanks for your help.
BILL REHOR [CULVER CITY, CA]
A:
Right now, we are pretty close to being able to safely say that Jacobs won't play. I would go with Ward. When Jacobs doesn't practice Friday, I think it will be certain that Ward is the starter there.
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Question 1: What do you do when...
Posted by Moishe Steigmann | Dec. 11 at 06:05 AM
Here's our solution, and it has worked out great. It's a 10-team league, and the top six make the playoffs. Obviously, they get picks 10, 9, 8, 7, 6 and 5 in next year's draft. For the bottom four teams, we have a Toilet Bowl, and the WINNER gets pick #1, second place #2, etc. Thus, a team that goes 0-13 in the regular season still wants to field the best team to try to earn the #1 pick. Tanking, therefore, is never helpful. (Full disclosure: we have since moved to an auction, and are struggling to find a benefit for the T.B. winner -- any suggestions?)
Question 1: What do you do when...
Posted by ADAM HOLTZ | Dec. 11 at 08:10 AM
Moishe - Can you try giving extra auction $$$ to the TB winner? If you hold your auction offline/in person, that seems a great idea. If online, you might have to get creative.
Question 1: What do you do when...
Posted by Richard Loppnow | Dec. 11 at 08:15 AM
Your solution: Call an unethical guy and talk him into instead being an ethical guy???
Question 1: What do you do when...
Posted by DAVID DIGREGORIO | Dec. 12 at 01:22 AM
The guy who obviously tanked so he could get the number one pick should instead be awarded the number two pick, or the worst pick of the bottom two teams not playing in the toliot bowl. However, if I were king of the world, the guy would get the last pick of the first round as lesson-setting penalty. In subsequent rounds, he should get the third pick (non toliot bowl).-
Question 1: What do you do when...
Posted by ADAM LOCKE | Dec. 12 at 02:09 AM
I should clarify our existing format. Top tier, seeds 1-4, play 2 week playoff for 93% of prizepool, all get something, outcome affects draft positions #9-#12; 3 division winners and wildcard. Middle tier, seeds 5-8,-play 2 week playoff for 8% of prize pool[money back], all to champion of tier, does not affect draft position. Toilet Bowl, seeds 9-12, play 2 week playoff for draft positions #1-#4 for next year's draft. The owner in question, should of ended up with seed #6, which would translate into #7 in the draft order next year. He claims that he thought MB3 was playing, but he did pull MB3 from a lineup in a different league where a win qualified him for higher top-tier seeding. Which matters, because we give a 3 point "home field advantage" to higher seeded teams in playoff games.Am I being paranoid?I appreciate existing suggestions, and any more that will added. Thanks
Question 2: Ok, based on your assesment...
Posted by Jered Ottenwess | Dec. 11 at 11:48 PM
I've had Thigpen on and off this year as I've struggled to fill the hole left by Brady. One thing I've noticed watching him is that Herm Edwards and the KC coaching staff haven't exactly cut him loose. Yes, at times he seems to be winging it around, but I think that's mostly because they're usually down. In several games they've been quite conservative with their play calling, with draws on 3rd down and so forth. He only had 22 attempts at Oakland, and in that shootout with Buffalo, he only put it up 31 times, completing 17. And as of Friday, the weather is predicted to include 22-25 mph winds with gusts up to 34 mph on Sunday in KC. I'll stick with Garcia in the Georgia Dome as the Bucs contend for a division title.
Question 3: Playoff matchup question, I have...
Posted by ADAM HOLTZ | Dec. 11 at 10:40 PM
I think the only time to even consider starting someone based on your opponent's lineup is when you have the luxury of the lead and a choice of players in a SNF/MNF matchup. Example: my friend had a lead going into the Vikings/Saints MNF game in Week 5. Her opponent had Drew Brees going that night; she had the choice of Lance Moore or Bernard Berrian in her last WR slot. I said it would be a decent idea to "hedge" against a great night by Brees, on the chance that he scored ~30 points, Moore probably catches a TD or two and helps protect your lead. In hindsight, Berrian was a better play in this instance, but this was purely for example. The only time I would consider setting my lineup based on my opponent's was with a lead and the luxury of choosing. You also have to remember that your opponent might also you changing your lineup and then subsequently change his, making that "strategy" worthless.
Question 5: In regards to Calvin Johnson....
Posted by Richard Loppnow | Dec. 11 at 08:09 AM
The whole point of the remark was that Calvin is managing it with such a historically crappy team.