Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Dec. 18 at 12:35 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
It looks like no team is planning on resting their players in week 16 as of now. However ... How might Thursday's Colts/Jags game and Saturday's Cowboys/Ravens game solidify the playoff picture, thereby increasing the probability that some players on other teams may get rested come Sunday? I suppose this question could be extended to the 1 pm vs. the late games as well.
ANTHONY TANGORRA [NEW YORK, NY]
A:
I don't think those two early games will have any impact on the Sunday games. Those playoff-contending teams will still need to win. The only possibly affected team that I see is Denver. I expect San Diego will loss at Tampa Bay, and that's a 1 pm kickoff. So the Broncos will take the field at 4 pm knowing that they've already won the AFC West. I don't think that will negatively affect them for this game. They've still got work to do -- they need to figure out who, for example, is going to be their tailback in the postseason. Tatum Bell, Selvin Young, P.J. Pope -- those guys need reps. But it could have an impact next week. Knowing they'll be playing a postseason game in week 18, I expect you'll see them pull some players early. Maybe Brandon Marshall, Jay Cutler and Eddie Royal play only a half (or even less) in the season finale at San Diego. They might not play at all.
Question 2:
Who would you expect to be the most likely players to sit week 17 now that we've had one more week of action. In my case, I have Peyton Manning, Warner, and Fitzgerald to be concerned with in a week 17 championship?
MARK CLURE [MOUNT SHASTA, CA]
A:
I'll be surprised if any of those guys plays in the second half of their game in week 17. I doubt they'll see even the second quarter. To me, the teams most likely to rest players in the final week of the season are ones that are certain to play in the first round of the playoffs -- they didn't win byes, so they just create a bye for themselves by taking that final week off. The Cardinals are one of those teams. The Colts will be if they beat Jacksonville tonight. And Denver should also enter week 17 looking to rest guys. In Minnesota, Brad Childress might have some difficult decisions to make. If the Vikings win on Sunday (clinching the NFC North) and Carolina loses, does he rest guys and prepare for a first-round playoff game? Or does he go all out in week 17, hoping that Carolina loses at New Orleans, allowing the Vikings to get a week 18 bye. If the Giants lose on Sunday (to Carolina), Childress' decision would be easy -- the Vikings could move up to the No. 2 seed by beating the Giants at the Metrodome in the final week of the season. Teams that have clinched first-round byes also will rest some players, but it's then more likely that you'll see regulars at least playing the first half. The winner of the Panthers-Giants game Sunday will enter the final week with the NFC's No. 1 seed secured. On the AFC side, if Pittsburgh beats Tennessee, the Titans will be locked in as the No. 2.
Question 3:
Can we talk about players who may sit in week 17, or 16 if applicable. I've picked up Matt Ryan (against Rams) and Darren Sproles (against Denver). Can you fill us in on some backups who have good matchups. What do you think of the two I have mentioned as well. I've got Warner and Cutler and I don't think either will play.
JOHN RUPPE [FORT MYERS, FL]
A:
I agree on Warner and Cutler. Those guys aren't going to do anything in week 17. I'm surprised Ryan was available; he's been a top-15 quarterback over the last couple of months. My only worry for that final game is that the Falcons will be feeding the ball to Michael Turner (against a really bad Rams' run defense). If the Vikings try to sit down Adrian Peterson in week 17, they better make sure that he has at least a 200-yard cushion, or Turner might steal the rushing title. I don't see Sproles as a player of value. The Chargers aren't going to be in the playoffs, so I don't seem them having any incentive to pull Tomlinson. Maybe they give Sproles a half-dozen touches, but I think it will be pretty much a regular game for them. Generally, I'm not a big fan of trying to pick up week 17 replacement players. If a coach decides to pull some of his front-line regulars, I think it sends the message to the rest of the team that it's pretty much just an exhibition game. I would be more interested in using a mediocre-type player on a lesser team who's playing against a team resting players.
Question 4:
Any way the Elias Sports Bureau changes Philadephia's TD to a 1-yard return since the ball was fumbled at the 1?
DAVID DeNARDO [WEST MIFFLIN, PA]
A:
You're talking about the 50-yard interception return by Asante Samuel on Monday night against the Browns. No way will it be changed. I've had this one explained me a few times over the years -- usually for running and passing plays. If the ball is at midfield and Brian Westbrook runs to the 30, fumbles, picks up his own fumble at 23 and continues to the end zone, it is scored as a 50-yard touchdown run. If Donovan McNabb (again, from midfield) throws the ball to DeSean Jackson, Jackson runs to the 30, fumbles, then picks up the ball at the 23 and continues to the end zone, it is scored as a 50-yard touchdown pass from McNabb to Jackson. That's just how those are handled. Same principle applies to kickoff and interception returns. Score it as a 50-yard interception return. If instead a teammate (rather than Samuel) picked up the ball at the one, then it would be scored as a 1-yard fumble return.
Question 5:
In a keeper league, who are the two players to retain from Derrick Ward, Jordy Nelson, Brady Quinn, Chad Henne and Kevin Kolb? Thanks.
Farhan Hassan [SAINT PAUL, MN]
A:
If you'd asked me three weeks ago, I would have said Derrick Ward -- maybe some team opens up the wallet and signs him to be a starter. But after watching Ward struggle in a couple of games filling in for Brandon Jacobs in recent weeks, I now seem him as more of a career backup. Jordy Nelson would be at the top of my list -- huge receiver with some speed who seems to be picking things up quickly. He appears to have already moved past James Jones. Donald Driver is getting up there in years and may be fading, so it might not be long before Nelson is starting and making a nice impact there. For the second spot, I'd go with Brady Quinn. There's a nice nucleus of talent there in Cleveland -- some good pass catchers and blockers. He could be pretty good next year.
Question 6:
I've really been impressed with the updates you've produced in the past two weeks....even a second 'bonus extra' for week 14. Keep up the good work, it's what separates FFI from the numerous pretenders in the fantasy business. My question regards fantasy playoffs. Is there any way to structure playoffs so a great 13-week regular season isn't vaporized by one week of rotten luck and outlier performances from otherwise middling players? I've lost count of the number of times this has happened through the years, and it's wrecked my season in two more leagues this year (if Antonio Bryant ever gets 200 receiving yards in a game again, I'll shave my head and run naked through downtown Phoenix). I'm in another league that doesn't use playoffs and we play all 17 weeks, and I'm wondering if that isn't a better way to go. At least your team is judged on a season-long body of work and isn't screwed by a freakish, 9-miles-out-of-left-field performance.
Mike Fimea [Phoenix, AZ]
A:
Luck's a part of the head-to-head format. No doubt about it. I joined the 24-team experts league hosted by Fanex Football in 2000. Since joining that league, I'm a league-best 81-45 in regular-season games -- first guy ever to make the playoffs six years in a row. But I'm yet to ever even make the semifinals in that league -- I was a league-worst 1-6 in playoff games until winning a game Sunday to move into the quarters this season. Maybe my luck is finally going to change, but when you're the playoffs in a head-to-head format -- playing a good team, of course -- it tends to get more and more like flipping a coin. Head-to-head has the thrill of winning games and guys making big plays. But if you want to just crown a champion and have the best team win, you're better off going with a 16-week format -- the best producing team at the end of the season is the winner (no playoffs).
Question 7:
I made it to the Super Bowl Ian! I have the Patriots defense and am tinkering with the idea of picking up the Texans or Saints. What are your thoughts?
DAVID BOZZELLI [INDIANAPOLIS, IN]
A:
If the weather is really lousy, you may want to go with the Patriots and hope that Kurt Warner serves up some interceptions and fumbles. But I saw that New England defense in Seattle a few weeks back and it really looked awful. In one of my leagues, I've got a playoff game this week and am sitting the Patriots and Panthers defenses and instead going with the Texans. They look hungry right now, and I think they're going to win very easily at Oakland on Sunday. The Raiders as in the bottom 25 percent in terms of allowing sacks, and I'm hoping they'll serve up some interceptions and fumbles as well. With luck, maybe they'll even break out the between-the-legs lateral to Sebastian Janikowski on a fake field goal again as well.
Question 8:
Does Josh Morgan fit into the 49ers plans at all this week? I saw he was back on the field but only had one target last week. I stashed him away several weeks ago after he had 2 out of 3 pretty good games just in case he came on late in the year and I knew in Week 16 he would get the Rams. Any value at all there as a possible sleeper this week?
WILL SAYRE [W SACRAMENTO, CA]
A:
I haven't heard anything about him being moved back into the starting lineup. Instead, I've got my heart set on Isaac Bruce coming up big in his first game back at St. Louis. Bruce has been playing well recently -- very well. He's caught 26 passes and 2 TDs in his last four games.
Question 9:
Who should I start this week in my playoffs? Starting 2RB's DeAngelo Williams, Steve Slaton, or Maurice Jones-Drew. It appears Slaton & MJD have the better matchups, but it is awfully hard to sit DeAngelo who's been tearing it up.
RAUL RENDON [GREENDALE, WI]
A:
Williams has been a thorn in my side this year. I've been too low on him many times. But I'm going with the matchups this week -- Slaton and Jones-Drew.
Question 10:
What are your feelings on Romo vs. Ravens defense and Kurt Warner @ Patriots. Weather in New England calls for 18 mph winds on Sunday with 50% chance of snow.
eric gustitus [EXETER, PA]
A:
I would rather play against 11 Patriots and four or five snowmen, rather than having to contend with a Ravens defense featuring Ed Reed and Ray Lewis. Warner.
Question 11:
Thanks to your help and Fantasy Index in general I am playing for a league championship in both of my 10 team leagues and obviously want both titles. I have a tough decision this week: Schaub or Rivers? I hate to bench Rivers but it may be the right move.
TROY MARSHALL [HIAWATHA, IA]
A:
I'd go with Schaub. The Buccaneers are 12-1 in their last 13 meaningful games at Raymond James, and they've allowed only 13 TDs in those games. The Chargers, meanwhile, are 2-5 on the road, with the only wins fourth-quarter comeback jobs against a pair of really bad teams -- Oakland and Kansas City.
Question 12:
Typical championship game question (sorry). I have arguably two of the best RB's this year (Thomas Jones and Brian Westbrook) and arguably the best fabntasy RB ever in a down year (LT). I'm leaning towards the unthinkable, benching Tomlinson.
SCOTT BRADY [COLLEGEVILLE, PA]
A:
I wouldn't give it a second thought. Tomlinson isn't a top running back anymore -- certainly not up there with the likes of Jones and Westbrook. I don't think there's anyway that Tomlinson will run for 50 yards this week at Tampa Bay.
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Question 6: I've really been impressed with...
Posted by Paul Owers | Dec. 18 at 04:36 AM
I've been saying this for years and nobody listens. Total-points leagues are the way to go. They drastically reduce the luck factor. In our 10-team league, we play all 17 weeks, with the top 6 teams in total points advancing to the playoffs. The first- and second-place finishers in the regular season get cash and first-round byes in the playoffs. We then hold separate redrafts for each round of the playoffs, with our league title decided the week of the AFC and NFC championship games. The great thing about this setup is, any of the six fantasy playoff teams can win the championship. And the top two finishers in the regular season can't moan too much about bad luck because they're guaranteed cash before the playoffs begin. Head-to-head leagues holding their fantasy playoffs while NFL teams are still in the regular season makes no sense to me.
Question 7: I made it to the...
Posted by justin howe | Dec. 18 at 03:22 AM
Super Bowl, and i'm in a quandary... do i bench Westbrook for Slaton? my gut says yes, since Slaton's matchup is tremendous, but i tried the bench-Westbrook thing v. the Cards and lost out on 35ish points, so now I'm gunshy. anyone else sitting Brian for a superior matchup?
Question 12: Typical championship game question (sorry)....
Posted by Moishe Steigmann | Dec. 18 at 01:20 AM
"I don't think there's anyway that Tomlinson will run for 50 yards this week at Tampa Bay." I agree. Still, I can't believe (1) that you wrote that, in all seriousness, and that (2) I -- and many others -- agree! Wow, a far cry from the being the consensus #1 pick of the past half-dozen years. I just had to note it.