Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Jan. 09 at 03:47 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I'm glad my playoff fantasy side bet doesn't kick off until this weekend. Looks like I would have been long a few IND players. Could you give a new guestimate on the anticipated number of games left per team (the ST column on the spreadsheet) so I can create a new redrafter for a late week draft? Looks like Vegas has them ranked NYG, CAR, PIT, TEN, PHL, BAL, SD, AZ but I don't know how to quantify the ST number. Thanks in advance.
Brian Barrett [BOULDER, CO]
A:
I selected the Colts to win it all. Haven't you suffered enough already? They lost at San Diego, and it was pretty ugly -- just 17 points, with one of the touchdowns coming on the fluke long touchdown (when Peyton Manning caught their defense substituting).
So where do we go from here? I see the Panthers as the only team that looks like a shoo-in this week. If they played Arizona 10 times, they might win that game every single time. For mathematical purposes, let's call them a 90 percent favorite to win, putting them at 1.9 games through the NFC Championship. (Arizona, then, at 1.1 games).
I also feel Pittsburgh will win, but being a closet Steelers fan, I painfully remember them losing more home playoff games than anybody over the years. Numerous times, they've let Super Bowl berths slip through their fingers on their own turf. Losses to the Bills, Patriots, Broncos and Chargers -- again, all at home -- come to mind. It's some kind of curse, I think, that started when Pittsburgh lost to Miami after the 1972 season (the Dolphins were undefeated that year, but home-field was rotated back then, so the game was played at Three Rivers). Bottom line: I think the Steelers will win the game, but I've got a creepy feeling in the back of my mind. I'll call them 70 percent likely to win. So 1.7 games for the Steelers, and 1.3 for the Chargers.
I see the other two games as close. I think the Eagles have a chance to upset the Giants, who don't look like the same team anymore. I'm giving Philadelphia a 35-40 percent chance of pulling the upset. So let's call it 1.6 games for the Giants and 1.4 for the Eagles.
And I think the Ravens will call big problems for Tennessee's offense in what should be a defensive struggle in Nashville -- a 16-13 type of game. I know Baltimore will shut down LenDale White. I think they can pretty much clamp down on Chris Johnson as well. Once that happens, you have to start to wonder how long Kerry Collins can go without throwing a crucial interception to Ed Reed. I'm giving Tennessee only a 55-60 percent chance of winning that game.
You have to then keep those results and probabilities in mind when handicapping the championship games. The Giants would be a slight favorite against Carolina in the NFC Championship game, but the Panthers are far more likely to be in that game. So I consider Carolina right now to be the NFC team most likely to play in the Super Bowl.
Same logic holds on the AFC side. I think Tennessee would beat Pittsburgh, but the Steelers are more likely to actually be playing that week. And maybe Baltimore sneaks into the big game.
Final game totals: Carolina 2.45, Pittsburgh 2.15, New York 1.95, Titans 1.85, Ravens 1.65, Eagles 1.50, Chargers 1.35, Arizona 1.10.
Question 2:
Thanks for another great year. When do you think you will have the top 12 players for next year posted?
dave guido [USA]
A:
It's really too early for this kind of thing. But I ran a few preliminary numbers. Top 20 would look something like this, I think (and let me know where you think I screwed up) ...
Adrian Peterson
Michael Turner
Matt Forte
Maurice Jones-Drew
Steven Jackson
DeAngelo Williams
Marion Barber
Drew Brees
Chris Johnson
Brian Westbrook
Roddy White
Larry Fitzgerald
Calvin Johnson
Steve Smith
Andre Johnson
Peyton Manning
Reggie Wayne
Frank Gore
Tony Romo
Marshawn Lynch
Question 3:
I am playing in league where you can only use a player one time throughout the 4 week playoff's. Do you think I should use D. Williams this week or play Jacobs and Westbrook and save D.Williams till next week? I was going to go with Williams and Sproles this week, but that means I would lose either Jacobs or Westbrook for the following week.
Mike Gibbons [Riva, Md]
A:
My rough draft would be as follows:
For this week, pick from Sproles, Westbrook and Willie Parker (even though Williams and Jacobs might be better than any of those guys). Parker should run effectively against San Diego, but I feel Sproles and Westbrook will be better fantasy options because they also will give you 30-plus yards as receivers. Parker won't catch any passes (plus, Parker has a better chance of being used later on).
For next week, go with Jacobs and DeAngelo Williams. Both of these backs were very good when these teams played about a month ago. I wouldn't want to risk saving either for the Super Bowl -- it would be a pity to get nothing out of one of these guys.
Super Bowl: your starters would be the No. 1 back from the AFC side (Chris Johnson, Willie Parker or LeRon McClain), plus a No. 2 back. That No. 2 back would be someone like Derrick Ward, Jonathan Stewart, LenDale White, Willis McGahee or Mewelde Moore.
I'm not sure exactly how your contest is structured. Hope this helps.
Question 4:
More of a product suggestion than a question. I greatly prefer your playoff format to the regular season - the games outlined with an overview. I would expect a lot of your readers, like myself, are also in office pools or handicap the games and want to read both sides of the game together. I find myself doing just that during the regular season (jumping all around to read the game matchups).
Your overview which offers some insight to the game score and the chance of an upset is of value. Always good to hear your opinion on that.
Stephen Viau [Ottawa, ON]
A:
It's more fun to put together the previews for the playoffs because there are fewer games. That allows more time to hunt for tendencies and trends, and we give more space to each team.
Projected scores is something we can talk about. As you probably know, our stat projections are based off making a projection for each team (points, rushing yards, passing yards, rushing TD and passing TD) and then having that production divided amongst the team by percentage shares. Steve Smith of Carolina, currently projects to account for 45 percent of his team's receiving yards on our board. So when we project the Panthers to finish with 200 passing yards, he clocks in at 90 yards (45 percent of 200). We're constantly tinkering with our individual player percentages, as well as our overall team forecasts (for both offense and defense).
The starting point for each team each week is started by averaging that offense against our expectation for the opponent's defense. The starting point estimate for points is taken from line for the game. (Carolina is a 10-point favorite against Arizona, with an over-under of 48 points, so our starting point for that game would be 29-19 in favor of Carolina). We typically will tweak those totals a few yards and points either way, depending on what we dig up in our analysis.
If you're every curious to know exactly how many points and yards we expect from a given team, you can find that in the "stat projections" file that can be downloaded (Excel format) from the website each week.
Question 5:
Wanted to thank you for the second year in a row. I won a national contest last year (1 of 594) and two regular leagues. This year, in two regular leagues my combined record was 29-3 with two Super Bowl victories. I again won the national contest. I was the first person to win twice. I also came in 4th (in the $) in a challenge contest. Thanks for all the help your cheat sheet gave me.
DAVID DIGREGORIO [NORRISTOWN, PA]
A:
Congratulations on a remarkable run. As well as you're doing, I should be taking advice from you.
Question 6:
Hi Ian. Just wanted to drop you a line and thank you for answering all my questions throughout the season. I'm sure you must have a million people pulling you in different directions during the season, so I appreciate you taking some of your time to reply. Once again I thought you put out an excellent product. I finished with a 12-2 record in my yardage league and 2nd place overall in my ppr league. The Championship team had Brees, D. Williams, A. Johnson and L. Moore in the week 17 finale. What are you going to do? This is the 8th year I've played FFL, I got a late start, and have won a few titles and finished in the money most years. I have to give you the props for my success, even though I have to go against a recommendation every now and then. I'll be looking forward to your thoughts on rookies and player rankings for next year. Hopefully there will be another Forte or Chris Johnson out there somewhere.
JOHN RUPPE [FORT MYERS, FL]
A:
Glad to hear you had a successful year. We'll talk more throughout the offseason, I'm sure.
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Question 2: Thanks for another great year....
Posted by Dave (MOJO) Smith | Jan. 11 at 12:23 PM
I meant to write in a "question" that was actually thanks to the fantasy index crew. Their stuff is eye-opening. As a long-time subscriber, thanks again!