A:

He's a coach killer -- a major pain in the ass. And that becomes a bigger issue now that he's 35. He still thinks he's one of the league's elite receivers, and wants to be treated as such, but he's starting to slip. He's now more of a top 5 or 10 receiver, rather than a dominant force like Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson or Steve Smith. He'll come up big in a few games, but he'll bitch and moan that he's not getting the ball enough in a handful of other games. That's why there's a good chance the Cowboys will release him at some point in the offseason. As for which franchise would be willing to take on that kind of baggage, I have no idea. They've been looking for a big-time receiver in Jacksonville for years. Tampa Bay? Tennessee? The Jets? He'll land somewhere.

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A:

I think you're onto something. I'm 97 percent certain you're right. I called the Elias Sports Bureau, but they don't keep the data sorted in that way. So I spent 45 minutes going through all of the 1,000-yard rushers since the league went to a 16-game season, checking the week-by-week numbers of likely candidates -- guys who just got over the 1,000-yard mark and had low per-carry or "long run" marks (plus guys that I remember starting 14-plus games). I was able to dig up Ottis Anderson and Edgar Bennett, who each had seasons with just one 100-yard game. But I'm pretty sure that Lewis is the first to do it with no 100s.

On the fantasy side, Lewis is just one of big group of backs who's getting long in the tooth. We saw Shaun Alexander quickly slip into oblivion a few years back, and LaDainian Tomlinson (30 in June) seemed to drop a notch last season.

Older backs that have passed their pull date (in my opinion):

Warrick Dunn (34), Fred Taylor (33), Ahman Green (32), Edgerrin James (31), Deuce McAllister (30).

Older backs that are in the "buyer beware" class:

Ricky Williams (31), Sammy Morris (31), LaMont Jordan (31), Thomas Jones (30), Jamal Lewis (30), Brian Westbrook (29), Tomlinson (29).

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A:

I spent a few days examining Strength of Schedule. My conclusion was that it does tilt the odds in your favor. I looked at both wins/loss and schedules based on points allowed (scoring defense) and found that the wins and losses was the stronger and more accurate performance indicator.

After looking at all schedules since the NFL started using its current Free Agency system in 1993, my conclusion was to treat schedules in the range of 120-136 to 136-120 as "neutral". Above that level, I believe, you start to see offenses benefitting. In the 15-year sample I examined, 71 teams entered the season with schedules projecting to be 119-137 or easier. By a 51-20 margin, those teams scored more points than they had the year before. Overall, those 71 teams won 68 more games and averaged 34 more points per season. A win per team -- that's a lot.

As they schedules get even easier, the results get more significant. If you look only at teams with schedules of 116-140 or easier, you're looking at an expected 44 points per season of improvement.

You get mirror-type results at the other end of the spectrum, of course. If you've got a schedule of 140-116 or harder, that's a good indicator that you're going to finish a win or so below where you should. That's not etched in stone, of course. Tennessee projected to play the 9th-hardest schedule last year but wound up playing the 5th-easiest. And the Steelers projected to play the hardest schedule ever but wound up playing only the 7th-hardest schedule and winning the Super Bowl.

It's not an exact science. You're just tilting the odds in your favor. It's like re-working a six-sided dice, replacing the one with another side with a four on it. It doesn't guarantee you'll beat that guy in a roll off, but it sure helps your chances.

Projected easiest schedules for 2009 (in order):

Bears, Vikings, Packers, Cardinals, Ravens, 49ers, Browns.

Projected hardest schedules:

Dolphins, Panthers, Patriots, Falcons, Buccaneers, Jets, Bills.

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A:

I spent a half hour playing around with the lists -- not from a purely numerical sense, but just kind of how I like the players. In a keeper format, its tougher to go off stat projections, since you have to factor in a player's remaining lifespan while also factoring in the extra value of stats in 2009 and 2010 being more important than 2013 and 2014 (also factoring whether your fantasy league will still exist at that time).

I differ from you on the quarterbacks -- even at 6 points for quarterbacks. There are a lot of good ones out there. Manning, Brady, Brees, Cutler, Rivers. I don't really have a strong preference amongst that group. Cutler and Rivers are a lot younger than the others. So I'd hesitate before taking one of those guys with a top 5 pick, since there's a good chance one of them might be available at pick 25.

I find myself attracted to the young standout wide receivers -- Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Andre Johnson. Those are great players, and they're going to be around for a lot of years. Megatron, for example, will be 23 on opening day; he could be a top-5 wide receiver in most of the next dozen years. You have to compare that against running backs like Peterson, Forte, Steven Jackson and Turner. With the beating those guys take, I don't think you can confidently assume that any of them have more than three good seasons left. That's just the reality of the running back position in the NFL -- rare is the LaDainian Tomlinson type of guy who can string together five or six productive seasons in a row.

A rough draft top 25, assuming 12 teams and a scoring system of 1 point for every 10 run/rec yards, 1 point for every 20 passing yards and 6 points for TDs:

Pos  Age
  RB  24  Adrian Peterson
  RB  23  Matt Forte
  RB  26  Steven Jackson
  RB  26  DeAngelo Williams
  WR  26  Larry Fitzgerald
  WR  23  Calvin Johnson
  WR  27  Roddy White
  RB  24  Maurice Jones-Drew
  RB  23  Chris Johnson
  RB  27  Michael Turner
  WR  28  Andre Johnson
  WR  30  Steve Smith
  WR  25  Brandon Marshall
  RB  23  Marshawn Lynch
  RB  23  Steve Slaton
  RB  26  Marion Barber
  WR  30  Reggie Wayne
  RB  26  Frank Gore
  QB  26  Jay Cutler
  QB  27  Philip Rivers
  QB  30  Drew Brees
  QB  33  Peyton Manning
  QB  32  Tom Brady
  RB  27  Clinton Portis
  RB  29  Brian Westbrook

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