Fantasy Football Index - Scheduletron
The problem with Strength of Schedule is it's based too much on what happened last year. Everybody knows that the Saints won't be as good this year, and we all agree that the Broncos will be better; so why use 2011 data when compiling strength of schedule rankings?
The list below goes next level. Rather than using the 2011 win-loss records for each team, it uses what we think those teams would do in 2012, if they were playing a typical-type schedule. My win/strength projections are at the bottom, so you can look at them and see where we differ.
If you then plug those win-loss totals back into the 2012 schedule, then you get a more accurate idea of what teams actually will play the hardest schedules.
According to my numbers, five teams play schedules that will be at least four games tougher than what the 2011 suggests – Ravens, Bucs, Cowboys, Saints and Washington (these teams are in bold). Four teams play schedules that project to play schedules that will be four games easier: Broncos, Colts, Vikings, Chargers (IÕve got them in bold and italics).
Using either set up numbers, the Patriots project to play the easiest schedule. With the revised math, the Ravens drop down into a tie with the Giants for the projected hardest schedule in the league.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE: REVISED
W L T Pct
114 141 1 .465 New England
120 136 0 .469 Green Bay
118 137 1 .480 Buffalo
118 137 1 .480 Houston
124 132 0 .484 Chicago
126 130 0 .492 San Francisco
122 133 1 .496 Indianapolis
123 132 1 .500 NY Jets
128 128 0 .500 Seattle
123 132 1 .500 Tennessee
124 131 1 .504 Oakland
125 130 1 .508 Jacksonville
125 130 1 .508 Miami
126 129 1 .512 Minnesota
126 129 1 .512 Kansas City
126 129 1 .512 Atlanta
127 128 1 .516 Detroit
128 127 1 .520 San Diego
128 127 1 .520 Pittsburgh
128 127 1 .520 Cincinnati
129 126 1 .523 Tampa Bay
130 125 1 .527 St. Louis
132 123 1 .535 Denver
132 123 1 .535 Philadelphia
132 123 1 .535 Carolina
133 122 1 .539 Arizona
133 122 1 .539 Washington
135 120 1 .547 Dallas
135 120 1 .547 New Orleans
136 119 1 .551 Cleveland
138 117 1 .559 NY Giants
138 117 1 .559 Baltimore
The Strength of Schedule numbers above are based on the projected wins for each team that you see below. These are the records I would expect from each team if it were to play an average schedule. Feel free to chime in with where you think I went wrong – teams that are way too high or way too low.
W-L RECORD FOR EACH TEAM (WITH AVERAGE SCHEDULE)
W L T
13 3 0 New England
13 3 0 Green Bay
11 5 0 NY Giants
11 5 0 Pittsburgh
11 5 0 San Francisco
10 6 0 Denver
10 6 0 Houston
10 6 0 Philadelphia
10 6 0 Atlanta
10 6 0 Baltimore
9 6 1 New Orleans
9 7 0 Detroit
8 7 1 Chicago
8 7 1 Dallas
8 8 0 San Diego
8 8 0 NY Jets
8 8 0 Cincinnati
7 8 1 Seattle
7 9 0 Buffalo
7 9 0 Oakland
7 9 0 Tennessee
7 9 0 Kansas City
7 9 0 Carolina
7 9 0 Arizona
6 10 0 Washington
5 11 0 Minnesota
5 11 0 Miami
5 11 0 Cleveland
5 11 0 Tampa Bay
4 12 0 Indianapolis
4 12 0 St. Louis
4 12 0 Jacksonville
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE: RUSHING
Here's the strength-of-schedule information for rushing.
Atlanta, Kansas City and San Diego project to play the easiest schedules, while the Lions, Cardinals and Giants (three teams with bottom-10 running games last year) project to play the hardest.
For each team, we took the 16 opponents they'll play this year and plugged in their 2011 numbers against the run -- yards and touchdowns. The TD numbers are season-long numbers (per 16 games). Yards and fantasy points are per-game figures. Rankings are based on 6 points for TD runs and 1 point for every 10 rushing yards. Michael Turner, Jamaal Charles and Ryan Mathews: this is good.
Yds TDR Points
126 14.6 18.1 Atlanta
124 13.4 17.4 Kansas City
123 13.4 17.3 San Diego
120 13.9 17.2 Miami
120 13.8 17.2 New Orleans
119 13.3 16.9 Carolina
121 12.7 16.8 Denver
120 12.9 16.8 San Francisco
119 12.8 16.7 Tampa Bay
117 13.3 16.7 Philadelphia
117 12.8 16.5 Houston
119 12.4 16.5 Pittsburgh
116 12.9 16.5 Washington
116 13.1 16.5 Dallas
118 12.5 16.5 Jacksonville
119 12.3 16.5 Oakland
118 12.3 16.4 Minnesota
116 12.8 16.4 New England
117 12.4 16.3 Buffalo
115 12.4 16.2 Cleveland
118 11.6 16.1 Baltimore
116 11.9 16.1 NY Jets
115 12.2 16.1 Seattle
116 11.5 15.9 Chicago
114 12.1 15.9 Tennessee
115 11.7 15.9 Indianapolis
113 12.1 15.8 St. Louis
115 11.2 15.7 Cincinnati
114 11.4 15.7 Green Bay
112 12.1 15.7 NY Giants
112 11.1 15.4 Arizona
111 11.1 15.3 Detroit
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE: PASSING
Everybody is expecting a big decline from the Saints this year. They had the Bountygate deal. They lost draft picks. Robert Meachem and Carl Nicks are gone. Drew Brees is unsigned.
I'm in that boat myself. And I have seen Brees go lower than expected in the mock drafts I have seen. He went for only $25 (an eighth of the salary cap) in the mock auction for the magazine. But there is definitely a spot you need to take him, and he may be going too low. And I notice, with the Strength of Schedule numbers in front of me, that New Orleans projects to play the easiest schedule in the league this year, in terms of pass defenses. Part of this could be due to them playing six games against teams that had to play them twice last year, of course, but nevertheless, they come in at No. 1.
For the coming season, New Orleans' 16 games are against teams that, on average, allowed 253 passing yards per game last year. That number isn't special, but those defenses also allowed an average of 26.4 TD passes last year. Using the fantasy scoring system of 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 passing yards, that works out to the most favorable schedule in the league.
Yds TDs Pts
253 26.4 35.2 New Orleans
252 26.1 35.0 Tampa Bay
252 25.9 35.0 Atlanta
251 25.4 34.6 Carolina
254 24.4 34.5 Chicago
256 23.4 34.4 Seattle
257 23.1 34.3 San Francisco
253 23.9 34.3 Detroit
256 23.0 34.2 St. Louis
250 24.1 34.1 Jacksonville
252 23.5 34.0 Arizona
250 23.6 33.9 Green Bay
250 23.4 33.8 Houston
251 22.9 33.7 Minnesota
243 23.9 33.3 Washington
240 24.6 33.3 Kansas City
244 23.6 33.2 Tennessee
245 22.8 33.1 NY Jets
244 22.6 32.9 Philadelphia
243 22.8 32.9 Indianapolis
242 22.8 32.8 NY Giants
238 23.8 32.7 Denver
244 22.2 32.7 Miami
241 22.8 32.6 Dallas
235 22.6 32.0 San Diego
234 22.9 32.0 Oakland
241 20.6 31.8 Buffalo
232 22.3 31.6 Cleveland
232 22.3 31.6 Baltimore
236 20.9 31.4 New England
231 21.3 31.1 Pittsburgh
228 21.1 30.7 Cincinnati
2012 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE: POINTS ALLOWED
Looking for scoring? Look at the teams in the NFC South. Those four teams project to play the softest defenses (schedule-wise) in the 2012 season.
That's based on how many points defenses allowed last season, so a big factor there is simply that they'll all play each other twice. Saints, Falcons, Panthers – those are teams with great offenses. However you want to slice it, when you put all of the numbers in the meat grinder -- totaling up all of the points allowed last year and averaging out the 2012 opponents -- there are only five teams who'll play schedules against defenses that (on average) allowed over 23 points per game last year. The four in the NFC South, plus Kansas City. (Does this contribute to KC being a sleeper team for 2012? Romeo Crennel did a very good job with that defense, particularly in the second half of the season.)
At the other end of the spectrum, three teams project to play schedules against teams (on average) allowed fewer than 21 points per game. Bengals, Ravens, Bills. Bengals are in a tough spot. Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Cleveland all had really good defenses last year, and that's six of Cincinnati's 16 games right there.
Things change, of course. Some of the defenses that were great in 2011 will fall apart, and some of the softer units will become a lot tougher. That happens every year. But the numbers below at least provide a starting point for which teams will be playing the easiest and hardest schedules.
Using points allowed by teams in 2011 regular-season games.
Points
24.4 Atlanta
23.9 New Orleans
23.7 Tampa Bay
23.4 Carolina
23.4 Kansas City
22.9 San Francisco
22.7 Chicago
22.6 Houston
22.6 Jacksonville
22.4 Green Bay
22.4 Washington
22.4 San Diego
22.4 Seattle
22.3 Philadelphia
22.2 Minnesota
22.2 Miami
22.1 Tennessee
22.1 Denver
22.0 St. Louis
22.0 Detroit
21.8 Oakland
21.8 Dallas
21.8 Arizona
21.6 New England
21.4 Indianapolis
21.4 Cleveland
21.3 Pittsburgh
21.2 NY Jets
21.1 NY Giants
20.8 Buffalo
20.8 Baltimore
20.4 Cincinnati
-- Ian Allan
SOURCE: Fantasy Football Index research.