For a long time, John McClain of the Houston Chronicle was confident the Texans would select a quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick in next month's draft, either Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, or Teddy Bridgewater. He stuck to that even with other draft watchers suggesting the Texans would look elsewhere with the pick.

But McClain changed his tune in his most recent mock draft, predicting the Texans would take pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney. And now the popular belief is that not only will the Texans pass on a quarterback, but the teams picking just after them will, too.

In the linked column, Peter King says he's heard that Houston, Jacksonville, Cleveland and Oakland, all with top 5 picks, are thinking about passing on the top quarterback prospects and drafting one in the second round. The other team picking that high, St. Louis, has been outwardly committed to Sam Bradford (they're financially committed to him, certainly), and is expected to draft a player at another position or trade the pick.

Could all three top prospects fall out of the top 5? Sure. There's no Andrew Luck or even Cam Newton-like talent perceived in this draft, just some quarterbacks with a flaw or two, either size, arm strength, or durability questions. Does a team really want to pass on a perceived sure thing offensive tackle, pass rusher or wide receiver for one of these quarterbacks? Might not the quarterbacks available late in the first or early in the second -- say Derek Carr or Tom Savage -- have comparable potential at a cheaper price? According to King, it's not that far-fetched.

Of course, this is the lying time in the NFL, when a team who's enamored of someone like Manziel or Bortles has little to gain by talking that player up; better to talk him down, so he's available later, and cheaper. Can the Browns, Jaguars, Raiders and Texans really risk walking out of the draft without a potential franchise passer? It's a lot easier to say in mid-April that these teams will pass on a top quarterback than for them to actually do so in May.

Falling quarterbacks have happened plenty in recent years. Brady Quinn was one who slipped further than most expected; so, famously, was Aaron Rodgers.

I'm not sure any of these quarterbacks are sure enough bets to be taken in the top 5. But I also don't think all of the quarterback-needy teams picking up there will be able to resist the siren call of a face-of-the-franchise type like Manziel. In a little over three weeks, we'll know for sure.

--Andy Richardson