The Jets have signed Chris Johnson. They also project to play the easiest schedule against the run this year. Should we be expecting a bounce-back season from CJ2K?
Chris Johnson signs with the Jets. I like it. Might make that team relevant. Rex Ryan is always able to cobble together a tough defense, and now they’ve got a few playmakers on offense. They signed Eric Decker. They signed Michael Vick.
With Vick and Johnson in the backfield, there’s some speed there. Not as much as if both of these guys were 3 years younger, but there’s some speed. Defenses have to be cautious about Vick getting outside, and that might open up some plays for Johnson. Maybe.
I also note that the Jets project to play the easiest schedule this year in terms of run defenses. That is, the 16 teams they’ll play collectively allowed more rushing yards than anybody last year. And if you blend yards and rushing touchdowns in fantasy points (1 for every 10 yards, 6 for touchdowns), this is the easiest run defense schedule in the league.
But I tend to shy away from paying too much attention to stat-specific scheduling stuff. Any team that is really weak against the run, after all, will try to fix that, making those teams probably less likely to be really terrible against the run the following season. Consider the Patriots, for example. They had the Vince Wilfork and Tommy Kelly injuries last year, and their run defense was god-awful for a while. But they got it turned around later in the year, and I don’t think that will be a bottom-10 run defense this season.
Anywho, I ran a check on this kind of thing, using the last five seasons. I compared how a team’s projected run defense schedule (how it was supposed to do) compared to how it actually turned out. Should we be paying attention to this kind of scheduling?
It’s about what I expected. Not real strong.
Of the 15 teams that entered seasons projected to rank 1st, 2nd or 3rd in run defenses (that is, the easiest 3 for each year), only 5 of those teams wound up actually having top-10 easy run schedules. Three of them ended up ranking in the bottom-10 in difficulty.
| TEAMS WITH PROJECTED EASY SCHEDULES | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Expected | Actual |
| 2011 | Tennessee | 1 | 4 |
| 2010 | Seattle | 1 | 7 |
| 2009 | Baltimore | 1 | 15 |
| 2012 | Atlanta | 1 | 17 |
| 2013 | Miami | 1 | 24 |
| 2010 | Kansas City | 2 | 1 |
| 2011 | Minnesota | 2 | 13 |
| 2009 | Minnesota | 2 | 14 |
| 2012 | Kansas City | 2 | 19 |
| 2013 | Tampa Bay | 2 | 32 |
| 2010 | San Diego | 3 | 3 |
| 2012 | San Diego | 3 | 9 |
| 2013 | Houston | 3 | 13 |
| 2011 | San Diego | 3 | 15 |
| 2009 | Washington | 3 | 30 |
| 2012 | Miami | 4 | 1 |
| 2010 | San Francisco | 4 | 4 |
| 2011 | Miami | 4 | 5 |
| 2013 | NY Jets | 4 | 20 |
| 2009 | Arizona | 4 | 20 |
| 2009 | San Diego | 5 | 7 |
| 2011 | NY Jets | 5 | 14 |
| 2010 | Denver | 5 | 16 |
| 2013 | Carolina | 5 | 28 |
| 2012 | New Orleans | 5 | 30 |
It can also be looked at from the other end. Of the teams that ended up playing the easiest schedules, how did those schedules project prior to the season?
Of the 25 teams that ended up playing top-5 (easy) run schedules, 10 of them (40 percent) were expected to have top-10 schedules entering the year. Five of them (20 percent) were expected to have run schedules that were among the 10 hardest. And the remaining 10 are what we might call “middle of the pack” schedules.
So there’s some slight correlation there, but nothing significant enough that it should be a factor in where you decide to select Chris Johnson.
| TEAMS WITH ACTUAL EASIEST SCHEDULES | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Actual | Expected |
| 2010 | Kansas City | 1 | 2 |
| 2012 | Miami | 1 | 4 |
| 2009 | Denver | 1 | 13 |
| 2011 | New Orleans | 1 | 14 |
| 2013 | Detroit | 1 | 30 |
| 2010 | St. Louis | 2 | 7 |
| 2012 | Houston | 2 | 11 |
| 2011 | Dallas | 2 | 12 |
| 2009 | Tennessee | 2 | 23 |
| 2013 | Dallas | 2 | 25 |
| 2010 | San Diego | 3 | 3 |
| 2011 | Atlanta | 3 | 6 |
| 2009 | Cleveland | 3 | 15 |
| 2012 | New England | 3 | 18 |
| 2013 | NY Giants | 3 | 29 |
| 2011 | Tennessee | 4 | 1 |
| 2010 | San Francisco | 4 | 4 |
| 2013 | Kansas City | 4 | 14 |
| 2009 | Green Bay | 4 | 19 |
| 2012 | Indianapolis | 4 | 26 |
| 2011 | Miami | 5 | 4 |
| 2012 | San Francisco | 5 | 8 |
| 2009 | Seattle | 5 | 8 |
| 2010 | Indianapolis | 5 | 15 |
| 2013 | San Diego | 5 | 17 |
—Ian Allan