At what point do we stop caring too much about where guys were drafted and instead focus more on what they’re doing on the field? If you wind the clock back a year, the debate was between Johnny Manziel and Blake Bortles at quarterback, but in their rookie seasons, Derek Carr and Teddy Bridgewater were both better than those guys.
One draft day last year, Bortles was the clear winner – picked 3rd overall by the Jaguars. Manziel (22nd) and Bridgewater (32nd) were selected late in the first round, which is solid evidence that the majority of NFL scouts aren’t sold on either of those guys. With Manziel, part of that was no doubt due to off-field concerns, so you could therefore argue that he would have been selected earlier if he were more of a Boy Scout.
Carr wasn’t selected until 36th by the Raiders.
Now that we’re a year in, it’s pretty clear than Manziel wouldn’t be selected before the third round. There are off-field issues, and he also hasn’t shown enough in the brief time he’s been on the field (preseason and regular season). That’s the easy one.
But what about Bortles? He’s got the prototype size and had a decent rookie year, starting 13 games and completing 59 percent of his passes. He has nice mobility and went over 220 passing yards in a half dozen games. But he threw 17 interceptions versus only 11 touchdowns.
Would Bortles still be the first quarterback selected?
Carr put up similar overall passing numbers (58 percent and 204 passing yards per game) but had 10 more touchdowns and 5 fewer interceptions. In pure physical terms (size, mobility) Carr isn’t as good as Bortles, but there’s likely some teams today now view him as the best of the 2014 quarterbacks.
I just tabulated the passing numbers for inside the 10-yard line. Carr was remarkably effective in that part of the field, completing 19 of 26 passes, with 16 TDs. That’s not only better than all of the other rookie quarterbacks, it’s better than every other quarterback in the league. Granted, some of those balls were of the superfluous late-game variety – throwing a couple of short TDs at the end of blowout losses – but production is production.
Bortles, meanwhile, is more like what you would expect from a rookie passer – 7 of 19 in that part of the field, with 5 TDs.
Here are the guy with at least 20 passes in that part of the field. It’s a pared down and simplified chart. I’m not listing the interceptions and sacks, and I’ve combined the touchdowns and 2-point conversions into one column (TD) so I’m not throwing too many numbers at you.
| PASSING INSIDE THE 10 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Comp | Att | TD | EZ% |
| Derek Carr | 19 | 26 | 16 | 62% |
| Matt Ryan | 23 | 37 | 18 | 49% |
| Tony Romo | 14 | 23 | 12 | 48% |
| Drew Brees | 25 | 35 | 17 | 46% |
| Kyle Orton | 11 | 18 | 9 | 45% |
| Tom Brady | 25 | 42 | 19 | 43% |
| Eli Manning | 27 | 51 | 21 | 41% |
| Jay Cutler | 25 | 49 | 20 | 41% |
| Andrew Luck | 31 | 51 | 22 | 40% |
| Philip Rivers | 22 | 43 | 16 | 36% |
| Colin Kaepernick | 12 | 22 | 8 | 36% |
| Peyton Manning | 34 | 56 | 20 | 34% |
| Aaron Rodgers | 31 | 61 | 21 | 33% |
| Ryan Tannehill | 27 | 48 | 16 | 33% |
| Joe Flacco | 15 | 32 | 11 | 32% |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 30 | 53 | 17 | 31% |
| Brian Hoyer | 10 | 21 | 7 | 30% |
| Matthew Stafford | 17 | 40 | 13 | 30% |
| Geno Smith | 8 | 20 | 6 | 29% |
| Blake Bortles | 7 | 19 | 5 | 25% |
| Russell Wilson | 13 | 26 | 7 | 24% |
| Alex Smith | 11 | 26 | 7 | 24% |
| Mark Sanchez | 9 | 17 | 5 | 24% |
Notice that Bridgewater isn’t in there. He didn’t have enough plays. But he went 9 of 14, with 6 TDs and a pair of 2-point conversions, but he also took 3 sacks. (Carr didn’t take any).
Bridgewater went 5-7 as a starter, the best of the rookie quarterbacks, and he also completed 64 percent (14 TDs, 12 interceptions).
In re-analyzing the 2014 quarterbacks, Jimmy Garoppolo is the quiet sleeper. He had a credible rookie year with the Patriots, doing enough for them to unload Ryan Mallett at the end of the preseason. Garoppolo completed 19 of 27 passing in mop-up duty in the regular season, with a touchdown at the end of that Monday night blowout loss in Kansas City. He’ll probably take over when Tom Brady is done, and it’s possible he’ll wind up having the best career.
—Ian Allan