Franchise and transition tags came down yesterday, or didn't come down. Now that we know who is and isn't tagged, we can make some guesses as to where those players will end up.
Starting with the key franchise tagged guys: Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, a couple of big pass rushers, and Stephen Gostkowski. They're not going anywhere. Nobody is going to give up two first-round picks for any of them. The big questions are whether they'll miss a lot of time before agreeing to long-term deals. Bryant seems a little trickier than Thomas due to reported off-field issues, but most likely they'll get done.
Charles Clay got the transition tag, which is an interesting one. Most likely the Dolphins will match any offer and he'll stay. But maybe a team that really wants him comes up with a creative deal that the Dolphins are unwilling to match for some reason. The guess is he returns to Miami, but it's no sure thing.
As for some of the big untagged guys:
Randall Cobb: The popular talk is that Cobb benefited from playing with Aaron Rodgers (true) and that Packers receivers who go elsewhere don't do very much (also true, as James Jones and Greg Jennings have shown recently). But at just 24 years old, Cobb is younger than those guys, and should have a much bigger market with more suitors. Jones and Jennings were older guys who went to bad passing offenses. Cobb will have better options. He may not be as productive outside of Green Bay, but I disagree with the notion he'll be a mediocre guy elsewhere. I don't think he'll be back with the Packers.
Jeremy Maclin: Maclin isn't a special talent, and is probably less likely to produce at his 2014 level with a different team than Cobb. Most likely, he'll be back with the Eagles, either before the start of free agency -- or he'll have to wait until after Cobb signs. Kansas City is one possible landing spot, and it's clear his value would suffer in an offense that didn't throw a touchdown to a wide receiver last season.
DeMarco Murray: Everyone seems to think Murray is gone. I'm not so sure. Teams don't give huge money to running backs, and everyone is well aware how good Dallas' offensive line is, helping Murray contend for 2,000 yards. Murray's a really good running back, and it only takes one team to throw a mint at him. The Colts or Cardinals certainly might do that. But I don't think it's a given that they pay him so much money that Dallas can't compete with the offer, and Murray's future seems to be best with the Cowboys.
Julius Thomas: Probably won't be back in Denver. Apparently the Falcons aren't interested in spending their money in that area, according to a recent report. Maybe there's a domino effect with tight ends -- let's say the Broncos steal away Charles Clay, the Dolphins sign Jordan Cameron, and the Browns throw a fortune at Thomas to have a viable receiver on their roster. Bottom line though, Thomas isn't going to be as appealing anywhere else, and seems most likely to be overpaid by a bad team.
Jordan Cameron: Not tagged and doesn't want to return to Cleveland. Denver actually makes a lot of sense, but there are other teams who could have an interest. Apparently Seattle was interested last season, and could maybe be a player for Thomas, too. In that offense, one can only think they wouldn't be quite as productive, as Russell Wilson tends to spread things around.
Defensive players: Ndamukong Suh wasn't tagged, and although the Lions want to bring him back, it seems very possible he'll end up elsewhere. Odious though it is to think he'll get a bigger deal than J.J. Watt, it's all about timing, and somebody will probably give him the money he's looking for. Early reports have bad teams likely to make a push (Raiders, Jaguars); those hoping for a team that could contend with the AFC Elite might hope that the Colts are able to get into the game. Buffalo's Jerry Hughes will also attract a pretty penny, but he's not the difference-maker Suh is.