There are some nice free agent receivers available this year. Most notably, Randall Cobb and Jeremy Maclin, but also Michael Crabtree, Torrey Smith and Cecil Shorts III. But what should we in the fantasy realm expect from these guys? History tells us that when it comes to wide receivers, they tend to drop off a little when getting transplanted onto new rosters.

In this century (that is, since not 2001 but 2000), there have been 70 high-profile wide receivers who have switched teams. This includes both free agency and trades. Of those 70, only 27 put up better numbers in their first year with their new team. So 43 saw their production decline.

Average production in lead-in year: 59 catches for 801 yards and 5.2 TDs. Average production in first year with new team: 55 catches for 757 yards and 5.2 TDs. Slight decline.

Of these 70 receivers, 17 put up 140-plus points in traditional fantasy scoring, which we’ll arbitrarily say is really nice production. We’ve got those guys in bold below.

Bottom line: environment is really important for pass catchers. If Maclin or Cobb winds up signing with Oakland or Cleveland, it will be tough for either to make much of an impact (that is, finish as a top-25 receiver).

COVETED FREE AGENT RECEIVERS SINCE 2000
YearPlayerTmNoYardsTDPoints
2000Joe HornNO9413408182.0
2000Keyshawn JohnsonTB718748135.4
2000Curtis ConwaySD537125101.2
2000Carl PickensTen10242024.2
2000Joey GallowayDal462112.2
2001Jerry RiceOak8311399167.9
2001James ThrashPhi638338131.3
2001Terry GlennGB56817293.7
2001Albert ConnellNO12191231.1
2002Keenan McCardellTB616706103.0
2002Qadry IsmailInd44462364.2
2002Johnnie MortonKC29397145.7
2003Laveranues ColesWas8212046156.4
2003David BostonSD708807130.0
2003Peerless PriceAtl648383101.8
2004Terrell OwensPhil77120014204.0
2004Keyshawn JohnsonDall709816134.1
2004Marcus RobinsonMinn476578113.7
2004Justin McCareinsNYJ567704101.0
2004Joey GallowayTB33416677.6
2004David BostonMia000.0
2005Santana MossWas8414839202.3
2005Plaxico BurressNYG7612147163.4
2005Randy MossOak6010058148.5
2005Derrick MasonBal8610733125.3
2005Laveranues ColesNYJ738455114.5
2005Muhsin MuhammadChi64750499.0
2006Terrell OwensDall85118013196.0
2006Javon WalkerDen6910849162.4
2006Keyshawn JohnsonCar708155111.5
2006Donte StallworthPhi387255102.5
2006Deion BranchSea53725496.5
2006Antonio BryantSF40733391.3
2006Joe JureviciusCle40495367.5
2006Antwaan Randle ElWas32351459.1
2006Nate BurlesonSea18192337.2
2006Brandon LloydWas23365036.5
2006David GivensTen8104010.4
2007Randy MossNE98149323287.3
2007Kevin CurtisPhi7711108159.0
2008Bernard BerrianMin489648144.4
2008Isaac BruceSF618357125.5
2008Bryant JohnsonSF45546372.6
2008Javon WalkerOak15196125.6
2009Terrell OwensBuf558296118.9
2009T.J. HoushmandzadehSea799113109.1
2009Laveranues ColesCin43514581.4
2009Torry HoltJac51722072.2
2010Anquan BoldinBalt648377125.7
2010Brandon MarshallMia8610143119.4
2010Santonio HolmesNYJ527466110.6
2011Jabar GaffneyWas689475124.7
2011Plaxico BurressNYJ456128109.2
2011Sidney RiceSea32484260.4
2011Chad OchocincoNE15276133.6
2011Braylon EdwardsSF15181018.1
2011Lee EvansBalt47407.4
2012Brandon MarshallChi.118150811216.8
2012Vincent JacksonT.B.7213848188.4
2012Brandon LloydN.E.749115121.1
2012Robert MeachemS.D.14207232.7
2013Anquan BoldinSF8511797159.9
2013Wes WelkerDen7377810137.8
2013Mike WallaceMia739305123.0
2013Greg JenningsMin688044104.4
2013Danny AmendolaNE54633275.3
2013Percy HarvinSea11701.7
2014Emmanuel SandersDen10114049194.4
2014DeSean JacksonWas5611696152.9
2014Eric DeckerNYJ749625126.2

—Ian Allan