There are some nice free agent receivers available this year. Most notably, Randall Cobb and Jeremy Maclin, but also Michael Crabtree, Torrey Smith and Cecil Shorts III. But what should we in the fantasy realm expect from these guys? History tells us that when it comes to wide receivers, they tend to drop off a little when getting transplanted onto new rosters.
In this century (that is, since not 2001 but 2000), there have been 70 high-profile wide receivers who have switched teams. This includes both free agency and trades. Of those 70, only 27 put up better numbers in their first year with their new team. So 43 saw their production decline.
Average production in lead-in year: 59 catches for 801 yards and 5.2 TDs. Average production in first year with new team: 55 catches for 757 yards and 5.2 TDs. Slight decline.
Of these 70 receivers, 17 put up 140-plus points in traditional fantasy scoring, which we’ll arbitrarily say is really nice production. We’ve got those guys in bold below.
Bottom line: environment is really important for pass catchers. If Maclin or Cobb winds up signing with Oakland or Cleveland, it will be tough for either to make much of an impact (that is, finish as a top-25 receiver).
COVETED FREE AGENT RECEIVERS SINCE 2000 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Tm | No | Yards | TD | Points |
2000 | Joe Horn | NO | 94 | 1340 | 8 | 182.0 |
2000 | Keyshawn Johnson | TB | 71 | 874 | 8 | 135.4 |
2000 | Curtis Conway | SD | 53 | 712 | 5 | 101.2 |
2000 | Carl Pickens | Ten | 10 | 242 | 0 | 24.2 |
2000 | Joey Galloway | Dal | 4 | 62 | 1 | 12.2 |
2001 | Jerry Rice | Oak | 83 | 1139 | 9 | 167.9 |
2001 | James Thrash | Phi | 63 | 833 | 8 | 131.3 |
2001 | Terry Glenn | GB | 56 | 817 | 2 | 93.7 |
2001 | Albert Connell | NO | 12 | 191 | 2 | 31.1 |
2002 | Keenan McCardell | TB | 61 | 670 | 6 | 103.0 |
2002 | Qadry Ismail | Ind | 44 | 462 | 3 | 64.2 |
2002 | Johnnie Morton | KC | 29 | 397 | 1 | 45.7 |
2003 | Laveranues Coles | Was | 82 | 1204 | 6 | 156.4 |
2003 | David Boston | SD | 70 | 880 | 7 | 130.0 |
2003 | Peerless Price | Atl | 64 | 838 | 3 | 101.8 |
2004 | Terrell Owens | Phil | 77 | 1200 | 14 | 204.0 |
2004 | Keyshawn Johnson | Dall | 70 | 981 | 6 | 134.1 |
2004 | Marcus Robinson | Minn | 47 | 657 | 8 | 113.7 |
2004 | Justin McCareins | NYJ | 56 | 770 | 4 | 101.0 |
2004 | Joey Galloway | TB | 33 | 416 | 6 | 77.6 |
2004 | David Boston | Mia | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 |
2005 | Santana Moss | Was | 84 | 1483 | 9 | 202.3 |
2005 | Plaxico Burress | NYG | 76 | 1214 | 7 | 163.4 |
2005 | Randy Moss | Oak | 60 | 1005 | 8 | 148.5 |
2005 | Derrick Mason | Bal | 86 | 1073 | 3 | 125.3 |
2005 | Laveranues Coles | NYJ | 73 | 845 | 5 | 114.5 |
2005 | Muhsin Muhammad | Chi | 64 | 750 | 4 | 99.0 |
2006 | Terrell Owens | Dall | 85 | 1180 | 13 | 196.0 |
2006 | Javon Walker | Den | 69 | 1084 | 9 | 162.4 |
2006 | Keyshawn Johnson | Car | 70 | 815 | 5 | 111.5 |
2006 | Donte Stallworth | Phi | 38 | 725 | 5 | 102.5 |
2006 | Deion Branch | Sea | 53 | 725 | 4 | 96.5 |
2006 | Antonio Bryant | SF | 40 | 733 | 3 | 91.3 |
2006 | Joe Jurevicius | Cle | 40 | 495 | 3 | 67.5 |
2006 | Antwaan Randle El | Was | 32 | 351 | 4 | 59.1 |
2006 | Nate Burleson | Sea | 18 | 192 | 3 | 37.2 |
2006 | Brandon Lloyd | Was | 23 | 365 | 0 | 36.5 |
2006 | David Givens | Ten | 8 | 104 | 0 | 10.4 |
2007 | Randy Moss | NE | 98 | 1493 | 23 | 287.3 |
2007 | Kevin Curtis | Phi | 77 | 1110 | 8 | 159.0 |
2008 | Bernard Berrian | Min | 48 | 964 | 8 | 144.4 |
2008 | Isaac Bruce | SF | 61 | 835 | 7 | 125.5 |
2008 | Bryant Johnson | SF | 45 | 546 | 3 | 72.6 |
2008 | Javon Walker | Oak | 15 | 196 | 1 | 25.6 |
2009 | Terrell Owens | Buf | 55 | 829 | 6 | 118.9 |
2009 | T.J. Houshmandzadeh | Sea | 79 | 911 | 3 | 109.1 |
2009 | Laveranues Coles | Cin | 43 | 514 | 5 | 81.4 |
2009 | Torry Holt | Jac | 51 | 722 | 0 | 72.2 |
2010 | Anquan Boldin | Balt | 64 | 837 | 7 | 125.7 |
2010 | Brandon Marshall | Mia | 86 | 1014 | 3 | 119.4 |
2010 | Santonio Holmes | NYJ | 52 | 746 | 6 | 110.6 |
2011 | Jabar Gaffney | Was | 68 | 947 | 5 | 124.7 |
2011 | Plaxico Burress | NYJ | 45 | 612 | 8 | 109.2 |
2011 | Sidney Rice | Sea | 32 | 484 | 2 | 60.4 |
2011 | Chad Ochocinco | NE | 15 | 276 | 1 | 33.6 |
2011 | Braylon Edwards | SF | 15 | 181 | 0 | 18.1 |
2011 | Lee Evans | Balt | 4 | 74 | 0 | 7.4 |
2012 | Brandon Marshall | Chi. | 118 | 1508 | 11 | 216.8 |
2012 | Vincent Jackson | T.B. | 72 | 1384 | 8 | 188.4 |
2012 | Brandon Lloyd | N.E. | 74 | 911 | 5 | 121.1 |
2012 | Robert Meachem | S.D. | 14 | 207 | 2 | 32.7 |
2013 | Anquan Boldin | SF | 85 | 1179 | 7 | 159.9 |
2013 | Wes Welker | Den | 73 | 778 | 10 | 137.8 |
2013 | Mike Wallace | Mia | 73 | 930 | 5 | 123.0 |
2013 | Greg Jennings | Min | 68 | 804 | 4 | 104.4 |
2013 | Danny Amendola | NE | 54 | 633 | 2 | 75.3 |
2013 | Percy Harvin | Sea | 1 | 17 | 0 | 1.7 |
2014 | Emmanuel Sanders | Den | 101 | 1404 | 9 | 194.4 |
2014 | DeSean Jackson | Was | 56 | 1169 | 6 | 152.9 |
2014 | Eric Decker | NYJ | 74 | 962 | 5 | 126.2 |
—Ian Allan