Who’s on board to take Odell Beckham Jr. with a first-round pick? He looked awfully special last year, and the track record for wide receivers to repeat is pretty good. He’s not as proven as the other elite receiver candidates, but I expect he’ll be one of the first three or four wide receivers selected in every draft this year.
Below see a list showing the top 40 wide receivers of this century, after numbers have been adjusted to account for games played. And on this list, Odell Beckham would be the top guy. He started, after all, only 11 games last year, averaging 118 receiving yards and catching 11 touchdowns.
The below list isn’t quite the top 40. It doesn’t include the 2014 players – Beckham, Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant and Julio Jones all had great seasons too. And it also doesn’t include players who put up big numbers, then didn’t start more than half the season the next year. Josh Gordon, for example, was a monster in 2013, but I didn’t include him because of his drug suspension.
Instead, the list shows the top 40 receivers since 2000 who came back and actually played at least 9 games again the next year. And in this group, there are very few busts. Braylon Edwards, Joe Horn and Muhsin Muhammad. Those are your big three flops, and Muhammad switched teams.
Collectively, these 40 guys in their next seasons averaged 86 catches, 1,193 yards and 9 TDs.
I take this as supporting evidence that there’s very little chance Beckham will flop in 2015. He’s simply too talented. At worst, maybe he’s just a top-10 receiver (there are a ton of other good receivers out there). But Beckham will give you at least something, and he might wind up being the league’s most productive pass catcher.
TOP 40 RECEIVERS (the next year) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | G | No | Yds | TD |
2014 | Demaryius Thomas | 16 | 111 | 1619 | 11 |
2014 | Calvin Johnson | 13 | 71 | 1077 | 8 |
2014 | A.J. Green | 13 | 69 | 1043 | 6 |
2013 | Calvin Johnson | 14 | 84 | 1492 | 12 |
2013 | Brandon Marshall | 16 | 100 | 1295 | 13 |
2013 | Dez Bryant | 16 | 93 | 1233 | 13 |
2012 | Calvin Johnson | 16 | 122 | 1964 | 5 |
2012 | Wes Welker | 16 | 118 | 1354 | 6 |
2012 | Victor Cruz | 16 | 86 | 1092 | 10 |
2012 | Jordy Nelson | 12 | 49 | 745 | 7 |
2011 | Hakeem Nicks | 15 | 76 | 1192 | 7 |
2011 | Brandon Lloyd | 15 | 70 | 966 | 5 |
2010 | Andre Johnson | 13 | 86 | 1216 | 8 |
2010 | Miles Austin | 16 | 69 | 1041 | 8 |
2009 | Larry Fitzgerald | 16 | 97 | 1092 | 13 |
2009 | Anquan Boldin | 15 | 84 | 1024 | 5 |
2009 | Calvin Johnson | 14 | 67 | 984 | 5 |
2008 | Larry Fitzgerald | 16 | 96 | 1431 | 12 |
2008 | Andre Johnson | 16 | 115 | 1575 | 8 |
2008 | Randy Moss | 16 | 69 | 1008 | 11 |
2008 | Terrell Owens | 16 | 69 | 1052 | 10 |
2008 | Reggie Wayne | 16 | 82 | 1145 | 6 |
2008 | Braylon Edwards | 16 | 55 | 873 | 3 |
2006 | Steve Smith | 14 | 83 | 1166 | 9 |
2006 | Torry Holt | 16 | 93 | 1188 | 10 |
2006 | Anquan Boldin | 16 | 83 | 1203 | 4 |
2005 | Muhsin Muhammad | 15 | 64 | 750 | 4 |
2005 | Joe Horn | 13 | 49 | 654 | 1 |
2004 | Torry Holt | 16 | 94 | 1372 | 10 |
2004 | Randy Moss | 13 | 49 | 767 | 13 |
2003 | Marvin Harrison | 15 | 94 | 1272 | 10 |
2003 | Hines Ward | 16 | 95 | 1163 | 10 |
2003 | Terrell Owens | 15 | 80 | 1102 | 9 |
2002 | Terrell Owens | 14 | 100 | 1300 | 14 |
2002 | Marvin Harrison | 16 | 143 | 1722 | 11 |
2002 | Rod Smith | 16 | 89 | 1027 | 5 |
2001 | Marvin Harrison | 16 | 109 | 1524 | 15 |
2001 | Terrell Owens | 16 | 93 | 1412 | 16 |
2001 | Rod Smith | 15 | 113 | 1343 | 11 |
2001 | Randy Moss | 16 | 82 | 1233 | 10 |
—Ian Allan