Who’s on board to take Odell Beckham Jr. with a first-round pick? He looked awfully special last year, and the track record for wide receivers to repeat is pretty good. He’s not as proven as the other elite receiver candidates, but I expect he’ll be one of the first three or four wide receivers selected in every draft this year.

Below see a list showing the top 40 wide receivers of this century, after numbers have been adjusted to account for games played. And on this list, Odell Beckham would be the top guy. He started, after all, only 11 games last year, averaging 118 receiving yards and catching 11 touchdowns.

The below list isn’t quite the top 40. It doesn’t include the 2014 players – Beckham, Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant and Julio Jones all had great seasons too. And it also doesn’t include players who put up big numbers, then didn’t start more than half the season the next year. Josh Gordon, for example, was a monster in 2013, but I didn’t include him because of his drug suspension.

Instead, the list shows the top 40 receivers since 2000 who came back and actually played at least 9 games again the next year. And in this group, there are very few busts. Braylon Edwards, Joe Horn and Muhsin Muhammad. Those are your big three flops, and Muhammad switched teams.

Collectively, these 40 guys in their next seasons averaged 86 catches, 1,193 yards and 9 TDs.

I take this as supporting evidence that there’s very little chance Beckham will flop in 2015. He’s simply too talented. At worst, maybe he’s just a top-10 receiver (there are a ton of other good receivers out there). But Beckham will give you at least something, and he might wind up being the league’s most productive pass catcher.

TOP 40 RECEIVERS (the next year)
YearPlayerGNoYdsTD
2014Demaryius Thomas16111161911
2014Calvin Johnson137110778
2014A.J. Green136910436
2013Calvin Johnson1484149212
2013Brandon Marshall16100129513
2013Dez Bryant1693123313
2012Calvin Johnson1612219645
2012Wes Welker1611813546
2012Victor Cruz1686109210
2012Jordy Nelson12497457
2011Hakeem Nicks157611927
2011Brandon Lloyd15709665
2010Andre Johnson138612168
2010Miles Austin166910418
2009Larry Fitzgerald1697109213
2009Anquan Boldin158410245
2009Calvin Johnson14679845
2008Larry Fitzgerald1696143112
2008Andre Johnson1611515758
2008Randy Moss1669100811
2008Terrell Owens1669105210
2008Reggie Wayne168211456
2008Braylon Edwards16558733
2006Steve Smith148311669
2006Torry Holt1693118810
2006Anquan Boldin168312034
2005Muhsin Muhammad15647504
2005Joe Horn13496541
2004Torry Holt1694137210
2004Randy Moss134976713
2003Marvin Harrison1594127210
2003Hines Ward1695116310
2003Terrell Owens158011029
2002Terrell Owens14100130014
2002Marvin Harrison16143172211
2002Rod Smith168910275
2001Marvin Harrison16109152415
2001Terrell Owens1693141216
2001Rod Smith15113134311
2001Randy Moss1682123310

—Ian Allan