If I’m taking a running back in the first half of the first round, I want a guy who’s the right age. Some of these franchise-type guys are getting long in the tooth. Think Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte and Arian Foster.

History tells us that if you’re going to get big numbers – really big numbers – out of a running back, it’s more likely to be a guy who’s 26 or 27. Ideally you want a guy who’s been around for a couple of years, so he knows the offense and the league, but is also young and fresh.

In this century, 81 running backs have gone for at least 1,700 yards (rushing and receiving). For the purposes of this argument, I will call 1,700-plus yards “great”. When you’re looking at 1,400-1,600 yards, that’s production, but it’s not special. We’re not trying to take those guys early in round one.

Anyway, of the 81 “great” backs, very few were older than 28. (And I’m using the end-of-the-year ages on these guys.) Only three 29-year-olds did this. Only four who were 30-year-olds. And only three 31-year-olds. Nobody who was 32-plus years old managed to gain 1,700 yards in a season.

The big groups are at 26 and 27, where you’ve got a combined 27 players.

If I am picking a running back in the top 5 of the draft, I would prefer to get a guy who’s in that age group.

22-YEAR-OLDS PUTTING UP 1,700-PLUS YARDS
YearPlayerRunRecTotal
2000Edgerrin James, Ind.1,7095942,303
2014LeVeon Bell, Pitt.1,3618542,215
2009Ray Rice, Balt.1,3397022,041
2003Clinton Portis, Den.1,5913141,905
23-YEAR-OLDS PUTTING UP 1,700-PLUS YARDS
YearPlayerRunRecTotal
2006Steven Jackson, St.L.1,5288062,334
2006Frank Gore, S.F.1,6954852,180
2002LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.1,6834892,172
2012Doug Martin, T.B.1,4544721,926
2008Adrian Peterson, Minn.1,7601251,885
2010Ray Rice, Balt.1,2205561,776
2002Jamal Lewis, Balt.1,3274421,769
2002Travis Henry, Buff.1,4383091,747
2000Ahman Green, G.B.1,1755591,734
2008Matt Forte, Chi.1,2384771,715
24-YEAR-OLDS PUTTING UP 1,700-PLUS YARDS
YearPlayerRunRecTotal
2009Chris Johnson, Tenn.2,0065032,509
2003LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.1,6457252,370
2003Jamal Lewis, Balt.2,0662052,271
2010Arian Foster, Hou.1,6166042,220
2011Ray Rice, Balt.1,3647042,068
2001Ahman Green, G.B.1,3875941,981
2010Jamaal Charles, K.C.1,4674681,935
2009Adrian Peterson, Minn.1,3834361,819
2004Domanick Davis, Hou.1,1885881,776
2009Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.1,3913741,765
2001Ricky Williams, Mia.1,2455111,756
2002Deuce McAllister, N.O.1,3883521,740
2005Clinton Portis, Wash.1,5162161,732
25-YEAR-OLDS PUTTING UP 1,700-PLUS YARDS
YearPlayerRunRecTotal
2002Ricky Williams, Mia.1,8533632,216
2003Deuce McAllister, N.O.1,6415162,157
2013LeSean McCoy, Phil.1,6075392,146
2011Arian Foster, Hou.1,2246171,841
2004LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.1,3354411,776
2000Tiki Barber, NYG1,0067191,725
2012C.J. Spiller, Buff.1,2444591,703
26-YEAR-OLDS PUTTING UP 1,700-PLUS YARDS
YearPlayerRunRecTotal
2014DeMarco Murray, Dall.1,8454162,261
2003Ahman Green, G.B.1,8833672,250
2005Larry Johnson, K.C.1,7503432,093
2004Edgerrin James, Ind.1,5484832,031
2011Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.1,6063741,980
2005LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.1,4623701,832
2012Marshawn Lynch, Sea.1,5901961,786
2012Jamaal Charles, K.C.1,5092361,745
2008Michael Turner, Atl.1,699411,740
2009Steven Jackson, St.L.1,4163221,738
2003Shaun Alexander, Sea.1,4352951,730
2003Ricky Williams, Mia.1,3723511,723
2002Fred Taylor, Jac.1,3144081,722
2006Willie Parker, Pitt.1,4942221,716
27-YEAR-OLDS PUTTING UP 1,700-PLUS YARDS
YearPlayerRunRecTotal
2006LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.1,8155082,323
2012Adrian Peterson, Minn.2,0972172,314
2006Larry Johnson, K.C.1,7894102,199
2000Marshall Faulk, St.L.1,3598302,189
2002Tiki Barber, NYG1,3875971,984
2013Jamaal Charles, K.C.1,2876931,980
2000Eddie George, Tenn.1,5094531,962
2003Fred Taylor, Jac.1,5723701,942
2006Brian Westbrook, Phil.1,2176991,916
2004Shaun Alexander, Sea.1,6961701,866
2005Edgerrin James, Ind.1,5063371,843
2000Curtis Martin, NYJ1,2045081,712
2008Clinton Portis, Wash.1,4872181,705
28-YEAR-OLDS PUTTING UP 1,700-PLUS YARDS
YearPlayerRunRecTotal
2001Priest Holmes, K.C.1,5556142,169
2001Marshall Faulk, St.L.1,3827652,147
2007Brian Westbrook, Phil.1,3337712,104
2005Shaun Alexander, Sea.1,880781,958
2007LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.1,4744751,949
2013Matt Forte, Chi.1,3395941,933
2000Robert Smith, Minn.1,5213481,869
2001Curtis Martin, NYJ1,5133201,833
2000Charlie Garner, S.F.1,1426471,789
29-YEAR-OLDS PUTTING UP 1,700-PLUS YARDS
YearPlayerRunRecTotal
2002Priest Holmes, K.C.1,6156722,287
2004Tiki Barber, NYG1,5185782,096
2014Matt Forte, Chi.1,0388081,846
30-YEAR-OLDS PUTTING UP 1,700-PLUS YARDS
YearPlayerRunRecTotal
2005Tiki Barber, NYG1,8605302,390
2003Priest Holmes, K.C.1,4206902,110
2002Charlie Garner, Oak.9629411,903
2004Corey Dillon, N.E.1,6351031,738
31-YEAR-OLDS PUTTING UP 1,700-PLUS YARDS
YearPlayerRunRecTotal
2006Tiki Barber, NYG1,6624652,127
2004Curtis Martin, NYJ1,6972451,942
2000Ricky Watters, Sea.1,2426131,855