I like looking at passing stats at the goal line – inside the 10. That’s a measuring stick area of the field. If you put the ball in the end zone, or you don’t. And as the years go by and the attempts add up, it becomes apparent who’s good and who’s not.
This time around, I aggregated those numbers for the past three years. That gives a more telling and concrete answer. It eliminates the likelihood that a quarterback is overrated because he happened to get hot or benefit from an easy schedule. Similarly, it reduces the ability of guys to be lowered by playing half of the year without their tight end or whatever.
Anyway, over the last three years, 26 quarterbacks have been on the field for at least 50 in that part of the field. Surprisingly, Sam Bradford and Ryan Fitzpatrick have been the best at putting the ball in the end zone. They’ve completed the ball for scores on the highest percentage of their attempts. That’s 27 of 59 plays for Bradford (46 percent) and 26 of 59 for Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick also played his best ball with Chan Gailey in Buffalo. Gailey is now the offensive coordinator with the Jets, so I like that combo.
If you want to look at players who’ve been on the field a lot more, then Tony Romo, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning are your top three.
Chad Henne, Nick Foles, Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford have been the worst. Maybe Chip Kelly knew exactly what he was doing when he sent Foles to St. Louis for Bradford.
If you want to focus on guys who’ve been on the field a lot, then Newton and Stafford have been the worst.
| PASSING INSIDE THE 10 (2012-14) END ZONE PERCENTAGE | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Plays | TD | 2Pt | EZ% |
| Sam Bradford | 59 | 23 | 4 | 45.8% |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 59 | 26 | 0 | 44.1% |
| Tony Romo | 99 | 40 | 2 | 42.4% |
| Drew Brees | 139 | 57 | 0 | 41.0% |
| Peyton Manning | 166 | 63 | 3 | 39.8% |
| Jay Cutler | 102 | 31 | 7 | 37.3% |
| Tom Brady | 138 | 49 | 2 | 37.0% |
| Aaron Rodgers | 131 | 45 | 2 | 35.9% |
| Ryan Tannehill | 98 | 33 | 2 | 35.7% |
| Russell Wilson | 87 | 31 | 0 | 35.6% |
| Matt Ryan | 135 | 47 | 1 | 35.6% |
| Andy Dalton | 97 | 33 | 1 | 35.1% |
| Eli Manning | 112 | 39 | 0 | 34.8% |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 135 | 43 | 4 | 34.8% |
| Christian Ponder | 53 | 17 | 1 | 34.0% |
| Andrew Luck | 133 | 41 | 4 | 33.8% |
| Carson Palmer | 82 | 25 | 2 | 32.9% |
| Colin Kaepernick | 67 | 22 | 0 | 32.8% |
| Philip Rivers | 116 | 38 | 0 | 32.8% |
| Joe Flacco | 100 | 29 | 3 | 32.0% |
| Alex Smith | 68 | 21 | 0 | 30.9% |
| Robert Griffin III | 65 | 19 | 1 | 30.8% |
| Matthew Stafford | 133 | 35 | 4 | 29.3% |
| Cam Newton | 74 | 20 | 1 | 28.4% |
| Nick Foles | 53 | 13 | 2 | 28.3% |
| Chad Henne | 53 | 11 | 0 | 20.8% |
While we all like to knock the sitcom villain, Jay Cutler, he’s No. 6 on that list. Strictly off the numbers, he’s been better than Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Luck and a bunch of other quarterbacks that we all agree are better than he is.
Some may prefer to look not at end zone percentage but simply completion percentage. If a guy completes an 8-yard pass down to the 1, after all, that’s a successful play isn’t it? The advantage of going with end zone percentage is that you’re not rewarding Alex Smith for throwing a 2-yard checkdown so he can trot off while they attempt a field goal.
In completion percentage, the top 2 are the guys you would guess – Brees and Manning. Romo’s up there again. The surprise is Ryan Tannehill, coming in at No. 3.
At the bottom, you’ve got Chad Henne, Cam Newton, Nick Foles and Matthew Stafford. Then there’s Cutler, down where we all expect and want to see him.
| PASSING INSIDE THE 10 (2012-14) COMPLETION PERCENTAGE | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Comp | Att | Pct | Int | Sack |
| Drew Brees | 83 | 131 | 63.4% | 1 | 8 |
| Peyton Manning | 97 | 161 | 60.2% | 1 | 5 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 55 | 93 | 59.1% | 1 | 5 |
| Tony Romo | 55 | 94 | 58.5% | 1 | 5 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 32 | 55 | 58.2% | 2 | 4 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 74 | 131 | 56.5% | 1 | 4 |
| Russell Wilson | 44 | 78 | 56.4% | 2 | 9 |
| Sam Bradford | 32 | 57 | 56.1% | 2 | 2 |
| Philip Rivers | 62 | 112 | 55.4% | 5 | 4 |
| Christian Ponder | 27 | 49 | 55.1% | 2 | 4 |
| Matt Ryan | 72 | 131 | 55.0% | 3 | 4 |
| Tom Brady | 71 | 130 | 54.6% | 2 | 8 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 66 | 121 | 54.5% | 2 | 10 |
| Andrew Luck | 67 | 124 | 54.0% | 3 | 9 |
| Alex Smith | 34 | 63 | 54.0% | 2 | 5 |
| Andy Dalton | 47 | 88 | 53.4% | 3 | 9 |
| Eli Manning | 56 | 111 | 50.5% | 3 | 1 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 33 | 66 | 50.0% | 3 | 1 |
| Robert Griffin III | 31 | 62 | 50.0% | 1 | 3 |
| Carson Palmer | 40 | 82 | 48.8% | 2 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 47 | 97 | 48.5% | 2 | 3 |
| Jay Cutler | 49 | 102 | 48.0% | 3 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 55 | 126 | 43.7% | 3 | 7 |
| Nick Foles | 20 | 50 | 40.0% | 1 | 3 |
| Cam Newton | 27 | 71 | 38.0% | 2 | 3 |
| Chad Henne | 19 | 50 | 38.0% | 2 | 3 |
Michael Vick isn’t listed on these charts. Not enough attempts. But if you expand the thing to include everyone with at least 40 plays, then he’s the bottom guy in both categories – 14 of 37 passing, with 8 TDs, 6 sacks and 1 interception.
—Ian Allan