Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, in some order, will be the first two quarterbacks selected in next week's draft, both with top-10 picks. Should we care which one is selected first? History says yes.
Over the last 30 years, two (or more) quarterbacks have been selected in the top 10 on 15 different occasions. By our count, both quarterbacks have either been very good (Eli Manning and Philip Rivers) or flopped (Vince Young/Matt Leinart, David Carr/Joey Harrington) on three occasions. Tough to pick a clear winner from any of those three draft years.
But the other 12 times two quarterbacks were selected in the top 10, the first quarterback drafted went on to have the better career 10 times. Only twice (Couch-McNabb, Shuler-Dilfer) was the quarterback selected 2nd the better professional.
This is not to say the gap will be as big between the two as Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf (or even Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez), or that the second one selected will flop. McNabb, Dilfer, Kerry Collins -- all those guys went on to have decent careers. Maybe we'll have another Eli Manning-Philip Rivers situation.
But by and large, the quarterback selected first in these situations turns out to be the better pro.
The 15 pairs of quarterbacks drafted in the top 10 picks since 1983 are presented below. The superior NFL quarterback is in bold.
PAIRS OF TOP-10 QBS, 1983-2012 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Pk | Player | College | NFL |
2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck | Stanford | Colts |
2012 | 2 | Robert Griffin III | Baylor | Washington |
2011 | 1 | Cam Newton | Auburn | Panthers |
2011 | 8 | Jake Locker | Washington | Titans |
2009 | 1 | Matthew Stafford | Georgia | Lions |
2009 | 5 | Mark Sanchez | Southern California | Jets |
2006 | 3 | Vince Young | Texas | Titans |
2006 | 10 | Matt Leinart | Southern California | Cardinals |
2004 | 1 | Eli Manning | Mississippi | Chargers |
2004 | 4 | Philip Rivers | North Carolina State | Giants |
2003 | 1 | Carson Palmer | Southern California | Bengals |
2003 | 7 | Byron Leftwich | Marshall | Jaguars |
2002 | 1 | David Carr | Fresno State | Texans |
2002 | 3 | Joey Harrington | Oregon | Lions |
1999 | 1 | Tim Couch | Kentucky | Browns |
1999 | 2 | Donovan McNabb | Syracuse | Eagles |
1998 | 1 | Peyton Manning | Tennessee | Colts |
1998 | 2 | Ryan Leaf | Washington State | Chargers |
1995 | 3 | Steve McNair | Alcorn State | Oilers |
1995 | 5 | Kerry Collins | Penn State | Panthers |
1994 | 3 | Heath Shuler | Tennessee | Washington |
1994 | 6 | Trent Dilfer | Fresno State | Buccaneers |
1993 | 1 | Drew Bledsoe | Washington State | Patriots |
1993 | 2 | Rick Mirer | Notre Dame | Seahawks |
1990 | 1 | Jeff George | Illinois | Colts |
1990 | 7 | Andre Ware | Houston | Lions |
1987 | 1 | Vinny Testaverde | Miami | Buccaneers |
1987 | 6 | Kelly Stouffer | Colorado State | Cardinals |
1983 | 1 | John Elway | Stanford | Broncos |
1983 | 7 | Todd Blackledge | Penn State | Kansas City |
--Andy Richardson