Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, in some order, will be the first two quarterbacks selected in next week's draft, both with top-10 picks. Should we care which one is selected first? History says yes.

Over the last 30 years, two (or more) quarterbacks have been selected in the top 10 on 15 different occasions. By our count, both quarterbacks have either been very good (Eli Manning and Philip Rivers) or flopped (Vince Young/Matt Leinart, David Carr/Joey Harrington) on three occasions. Tough to pick a clear winner from any of those three draft years.

But the other 12 times two quarterbacks were selected in the top 10, the first quarterback drafted went on to have the better career 10 times. Only twice (Couch-McNabb, Shuler-Dilfer) was the quarterback selected 2nd the better professional.

This is not to say the gap will be as big between the two as Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf (or even Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez), or that the second one selected will flop. McNabb, Dilfer, Kerry Collins -- all those guys went on to have decent careers. Maybe we'll have another Eli Manning-Philip Rivers situation.

But by and large, the quarterback selected first in these situations turns out to be the better pro.

The 15 pairs of quarterbacks drafted in the top 10 picks since 1983 are presented below. The superior NFL quarterback is in bold.

PAIRS OF TOP-10 QBS, 1983-2012
YearPkPlayerCollegeNFL
20121Andrew LuckStanfordColts
20122Robert Griffin IIIBaylorWashington
20111Cam NewtonAuburnPanthers
20118Jake LockerWashingtonTitans
20091Matthew StaffordGeorgiaLions
20095Mark SanchezSouthern CaliforniaJets
20063Vince YoungTexasTitans
200610Matt LeinartSouthern CaliforniaCardinals
20041Eli ManningMississippiChargers
20044Philip RiversNorth Carolina StateGiants
20031Carson PalmerSouthern CaliforniaBengals
20037Byron LeftwichMarshall Jaguars
20021David CarrFresno StateTexans
20023Joey HarringtonOregonLions
19991Tim CouchKentuckyBrowns
19992Donovan McNabbSyracuseEagles
19981Peyton ManningTennesseeColts
19982Ryan LeafWashington StateChargers
19953Steve McNairAlcorn StateOilers
19955Kerry CollinsPenn StatePanthers
19943Heath ShulerTennesseeWashington
19946Trent DilferFresno StateBuccaneers
19931Drew BledsoeWashington StatePatriots
19932Rick MirerNotre DameSeahawks
19901Jeff GeorgeIllinois Colts
19907Andre WareHoustonLions
19871Vinny TestaverdeMiamiBuccaneers
19876Kelly StoufferColorado StateCardinals
19831John ElwayStanfordBroncos
19837Todd BlackledgePenn StateKansas City

--Andy Richardson