The Bucs have spent considerable time looking into Jameis Winston’s background, interviewing former teammates, coaches, teachers and associates. Seventy five interviews, according to one report. They want to make sure they’re not drafting another Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Russell or Johnny Manziel. They want to make sure that the off-field stuff doesn’t get in the way.
If they go ahead and select him, I will take that as evidence that they looked into him and think he’ll be fine. The work ethic and attitude won’t be a problem, they would think, and I’ll go along with that. Keep in mind that guys mature and get smarter. Ben Roethlisberger, most notably, had some of the same kind of off-field baggage a few years back.
And a selection of Winston would be a sign by the Bucs that they think he’s a lot better than Marcus Mariota. After all, Mariota is squeaky clean off the field and a way better athlete than Winston in terms of running, jumping and lifting. If the job is to pick a nice guy or a guy who’d be great on an obstacle course, Mariota blows away Winston. And if the other stuff is close, you’d have to figure the character and athletic traits would tip it in Mariota’s favor.
But it looks like it’s going to be Winston, and I take that as a sign that the Bucs, like myself, love the way Winston stands the pocket and guns the ball downfield. He’s not afraid to jam it into tight windows. NFL throws, they call them. You’ve got to have confidence, and you must throw with anticipation. You must be decisive. I don’t care so much about the athleticism; throwing from the pocket is far more important.
With Mariota, to me he looks more like a project because he’ll need to be extensively coached up. You’re looking at working in zone-read type stuff and hoping he can develop. I haven’t seen that he can drop back, make a quick snap decision and fire the ball into a tight space. While Oregon won the Rose Bowl easily (over Florida), I didn’t particularly care for how Mariota played. I saw him misfire on some of the key downfield throws – an interception, a dropped interception, and a couple of long throws that simply weren’t accurate.
To me, in Winston we’re looking at a guy that very easily could develop into another Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer or Matthew Stafford. On the downside, if he doesn’t develop quite right, continuing to force too many throws that simply aren’t there, then you’re looking at another Jay Cutler or Jeff George.
These are the kind of names that come to mind for me.
I was playing around with the numbers. Looking at how every quarterback selected in the first round performed in his final year of college ball. If you take Winston’s 2013 numbers and compare them to that group, I see that he averaged more yards per completion (15.8) than any of those guys. That tells me that what I think I’m seeing is correct – he’s driving it downfield rather than settling for check-down throws underneath. Florida State lost some players (Kelvin Benjamin for one) and wasn’t as good in 2014, so Winston wasn’t as effective last year getting the ball downfield.
On these numbers, Sam Bradford hardly played his final year at Oklahoma so I instead used his sophomore numbers. If a player in hindsight never should have been selected in the first round, I put a black dot by his name.
| YARDS PER COMPLETION | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Quarterback | Per Com |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston (Fr.) | 15.79 |
| 2011 | Cam Newton | 15.43 |
| 2012 | •Robert Griffin III | 14.75 |
| 2009 | Matthew Stafford | 14.72 |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota | 14.65 |
| 2010 | Sam Bradford (So.) | 14.39 |
| 2005 | •Jason Campbell | 14.36 |
| 2006 | •Vince Young | 14.32 |
| 2001 | Michael Vick | 14.18 |
| 2002 | •David Carr | 13.96 |
| 2014 | Blake Bortles | 13.83 |
| 2005 | Alex Smith | 13.79 |
| 2000 | Chad Pennington | 13.72 |
| 2014 | •Johnny Manziel | 13.71 |
| 2010 | •Tim Tebow | 13.59 |
| 2007 | •JaMarcus Russell | 13.49 |
| 2006 | •Matt Leinart | 13.48 |
| 2009 | •Mark Sanchez | 13.31 |
| 2009 | •Josh Freeman | 13.15 |
| 2004 | Ben Roethlisberger | 13.12 |
| 2014 | Teddy Bridgewater | 13.10 |
| 2004 | Eli Manning | 13.09 |
| 2002 | •Joey Harrington | 12.98 |
| 2013 | •EJ Manuel | 12.92 |
| 2004 | Philip Rivers | 12.91 |
| 2003 | •Byron Leftwich | 12.89 |
| 2008 | Joe Flacco | 12.88 |
| 2014 | Jameis Winston (So.) | 12.81 |
| 2003 | Carson Palmer | 12.76 |
| 2003 | •Kyle Boller | 12.51 |
| 2011 | •Jake Locker | 12.31 |
| 2005 | Aaron Rodgers | 12.28 |
| 2004 | •J.P. Losman | 12.26 |
| 2012 | Andrew Luck | 12.21 |
| 2007 | •Brady Quinn | 11.85 |
| 2003 | •Rex Grossman | 11.85 |
| 2008 | Matt Ryan | 11.62 |
| 2012 | •Brandon Weeden | 11.59 |
| 2002 | •Patrick Ramsey | 11.46 |
| 2012 | Ryan Tannehill | 11.45 |
| 2006 | Jay Cutler | 11.26 |
| 2011 | •Christian Ponder | 11.11 |
| 2011 | •Blaine Gabbert | 10.58 |
—Ian Allan