I like the extra point rules change. It will have the desired affect, I think. They will still be a pretty much automatic play, but moving them back 13 yards will definitely generate some misses. Enough misses, I think, that folks will stick around to watch after touchdowns, especially in game-tying situations.
In each of the last two years, for example, teams have converted under 98 percent on field goals of 20-29 yards. That’s just a slight move back from an extra points. The previous two years, teams hit under 97 percent on that range.
Then look at the results when you move back to the 30-to-39 yard range. Accuracy drops down to 90 percent. About half of those attempts, you could argue, are in the range of a 33-yard extra point, with the other half a bit harder.
Looking at these range numbers (and best to just look at the last 3 years), I think the best you could possible hope kickers to do on 33-yard extra points is about 95-96 percent. And 95 would be more likely than 96. That’s about 19 out of 20.
On the low end, teams convert 90 percent on kicks of 30-39 yards. With more of the misses coming on the high end (37-39 yards) probably the worst kickers might do on these extra points is about 92 percent.
Add in the factor that when a team pulls to within 1 point in the fourth quarter, the PAT becomes a pressure kicks. Stats show that kickers don’t fare as well in those situations. It’s like a big putt in golf. So there will be big, game-deciding misses. That’s good for the game.
And with typical kickers clipping along at about 95 percent, maybe, it will make for compelling dialogue when a team has a struggling guy who’s hitting maybe 80-85 percent. “Are we going to replace this guy? What if he costs us a game?” Also good for the game.
| ACCURACY ON SHORT FIELD GOALS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 20 | 29 | Pct | 30 | 39 | Pct |
| 2002 | 242 | 257 | 94.2% | 243 | 291 | 83.5% |
| 2003 | 270 | 281 | 96.1% | 229 | 277 | 82.7% |
| 2004 | 243 | 252 | 96.4% | 211 | 259 | 81.5% |
| 2005 | 259 | 272 | 95.2% | 255 | 299 | 85.3% |
| 2006 | 257 | 269 | 95.5% | 239 | 279 | 85.7% |
| 2007 | 270 | 284 | 95.1% | 253 | 279 | 90.7% |
| 2008 | 261 | 266 | 98.1% | 286 | 321 | 89.1% |
| 2009 | 264 | 273 | 96.7% | 240 | 287 | 83.6% |
| 2010 | 257 | 270 | 95.2% | 251 | 283 | 88.7% |
| 2011 | 285 | 296 | 96.3% | 225 | 259 | 86.9% |
| 2012 | 215 | 223 | 96.4% | 270 | 303 | 89.1% |
| 2013 | 236 | 242 | 97.5% | 265 | 295 | 89.8% |
| 2014 | 241 | 247 | 97.6% | 272 | 302 | 90.1% |
—Ian Allan