Recently we posted a factoid about rookie runners, noting that Cincinnati's Jeremy Hill was the only one to go over 1,000 rushing yards last season -- the only one over 800 yards, in fact. That being said, eight different rookies rushed for between 500 and 800 yards. What can we expect from those players in their second seasons?
Over the last 10 years, 40 other running backs have rushed for at least 500 yards in their rookie seasons. A year later, 27 of those players came back and rushed for at least 500 yards again -- so, 68 percent, more than two thirds. Nearly half of those 27 players (12) were over 1,000 yards in year two.
It's an encouraging stat for those looking for breakout running backs in their second seasons. Based on those numbers, it won't be surprising if three of those nine 500-yard rushers (Hill, Tre Mason, Andre Williams, Terrance West, Isaiah Crowell, Branden Oliver, Bishop Sankey, Jerick McKinnon and Alfred Blue) rush for more than 1,000 yards in 2015. Looked at another way, probably two-thirds of them won't, but let's be positive.
Year two performances of the 40 previous 500-yard rookies rushers since 2005 are presented below.
500-YARD ROOKIES, 1 YEAR LATER, 2005- | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Team | Yards (1) | TD (1) | Yards (2) | TD (2) |
2008 | Chris Johnson | Titans | 1228 | 10 | 2006 | 16 |
2007 | Adrian Peterson | Vikings | 1341 | 13 | 1760 | 10 |
2005 | Frank Gore | 49ers | 608 | 3 | 1695 | 9 |
2013 | LeVeon Bell | Steelers | 860 | 8 | 1361 | 11 |
2012 | Alfred Morris | Washington | 1613 | 13 | 1275 | 7 |
2013 | Eddie Lacy | Packers | 1178 | 11 | 1139 | 13 |
2008 | Jonathan Stewart | Panthers | 836 | 10 | 1133 | 11 |
2010 | Ryan Mathews | Chargers | 678 | 7 | 1091 | 6 |
2009 | LeSean McCoy | Eagles | 637 | 4 | 1080 | 9 |
2006 | Joseph Addai | Colts | 1081 | 8 | 1072 | 15 |
2007 | Marshawn Lynch | Bills | 1115 | 7 | 1036 | 9 |
2005 | Ronnie Brown | Dolphins | 907 | 5 | 1008 | 5 |
2008 | Matt Forte | Bears | 1238 | 12 | 929 | 4 |
2006 | Laurence Maroney | Patriots | 745 | 7 | 835 | 6 |
2005 | Cadillac Williams | Bucs | 1178 | 6 | 798 | 1 |
2010 | LeGarrette Blount | Titans | 1007 | 6 | 781 | 5 |
2009 | Knowshon Moreno | Broncos | 947 | 9 | 779 | 8 |
2006 | Maurice Jones-Drew | Jaguars | 941 | 16 | 768 | 10 |
2009 | Shonn Greene | Jets | 540 | 2 | 766 | 2 |
2008 | Kevin Smith | Lions | 976 | 8 | 747 | 5 |
2006 | DeAngelo Williams | Panthers | 501 | 2 | 717 | 5 |
2013 | Giovani Bernard | Bengals | 695 | 8 | 680 | 7 |
2011 | DeMarco Murray | Cowboys | 897 | 2 | 663 | 4 |
2013 | Andre Ellington | Cardinals | 652 | 4 | 660 | 5 |
2005 | Marion Barber | Cowboys | 538 | 5 | 654 | 16 |
2006 | Jerious Norwood | Falcons | 633 | 2 | 613 | 1 |
2006 | Reggie Bush | Saints | 565 | 9 | 581 | 6 |
2012 | Trent Richardson | Browns | 950 | 12 | 458 | 4 |
2012 | Doug Martin | Buccaneers | 1454 | 12 | 456 | 1 |
2008 | Steve Slaton | Texans | 1282 | 10 | 437 | 7 |
2012 | Bernard Pierce | Ravens | 532 | 1 | 436 | 2 |
2009 | Beanie Wells | Cardinals | 793 | 7 | 397 | 2 |
2010 | Jahvid Best | Lions | 555 | 6 | 390 | 3 |
2006 | Leon Washington | Jets | 650 | 4 | 353 | 3 |
2011 | Daniel Thomas | Dolphins | 581 | 1 | 325 | 4 |
2012 | Bryce Brown | Eagles | 564 | 4 | 314 | 2 |
2013 | Zac Stacy | Rams | 973 | 8 | 293 | 1 |
2013 | Montee Ball | Broncos | 559 | 4 | 172 | 1 |
2012 | Vick Ballard | Colts | 814 | 3 | 63 | 0 |
2011 | Roy Helu | Washington | 640 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
2014 | Jeremy Hill | Bengals | 1124 | 9 | ? | ? |
2014 | Tre Mason | Rams | 765 | 5 | ? | ? |
2014 | Andre Williams | Giants | 721 | 7 | ? | ? |
2014 | Terrance West | Browns | 673 | 5 | ? | ? |
2014 | Isaiah Crowell | Browns | 607 | 8 | ? | ? |
2014 | Branden Oliver | Chargers | 582 | 4 | ? | ? |
2014 | Bishop Sankey | Titans | 569 | 2 | ? | ? |
2014 | Jerick McKinnon | Vikings | 538 | 0 | ? | ? |
2014 | Alfred Blue | Texans | 528 | 3 | ? | ? |
--Andy Richardson