There’s been a little bit of talk that with the next extra point rule, it will unfairly discriminate against kickers from teams with harsher weather conditions. Teams in the northeast, the theory goes, see more adverse weather, so they might be more inclined to skip the harder PAT and try for a 2-point conversion.

I don’t see it.

There have been 38 missed kicks in the range of 30-35 yards in the last three years. That’s within 2-3 yards of where everyone will now be attempting their extra points. Of those 38 misses, only five have occurred in weather situations where you might have a little nervousness as the unit was lining up. Typically on these, you’re looking at weather in the 20s or 30s and maybe winds in the double digits.

Ryan Succop has been the most unfortunate kicker, I believe. He got three of those five problem games.

It’s not weather that causes guys to miss. It’s a slightly mistimed hold or approach, or the guy simply losing his focus.

There have been three stadiums with four or more misses.

Oakland leads the way with 5 of these misses (2 by Janikowski and 3 by opponents). None were weather related.

Miami and Washington each had four, but of that group, only one had any weather influence. When Succop missed (for Kansas City) two years ago, it was 30 degrees, with 10 mph winds.

Bottom line is, it’s just hard to make 20-40 extra points in a row from 33 yards. We may see a couple of surgeon-type guys pull it off – maybe Justin Tucker or Shaun Suisham – but most likely most kickers will miss 1-3 kicks along the way.

On this chart below, I’ve got them sorted not by year or player, but by where the game was played.

MISSES FROM 30-35 YARDS
YearPlayerVenueConditions
2012ZuerleinAriz.indoors
2014CatanzaroAriz.indoors
2012TynesAtl.indoors
2012• FolkBuff.28 F, 18 mph winds
2013NugentBuff.65 F, 11 mph winds
2014CarpenterBuff.good
2014GouldCar.good
2012WalshChi.41 F, 5 mph winds
2012GouldChi.good
2014MurrayClev.42 F, 8 mph winds
2014BaileyDall.good
2013BaileyDall.ideal
2012• SuccopDen.35 F, 10 mph
2014McManusDen.39 F, 6 mph winds
2013AkersDet.indoors
2013AkersDet.indoors
2012CrosbyG.B.good
2013• VinatieriK.C.22 F, 10 mph winds
2013BryantMia.ideal
2013GanoMia.ideal
2013SturgisMia.ideal
2013FolkMia.ideal
2012DawsonN.O.indoors
2012FolkNYJ60 F, 9 mph winds
2012BarthOak.ideal
2013JanikowskiOak.ideal
2013JanikowskiOak.ideal
2013SuishamOak.ideal
2013SuishamOak.ideal
2014ForbathPhil.good
2012• SuccopPitt.45 F, rain, 16 mph
2012HeneryT.B.ideal
2012CundiffT.B.ideal
2013BironasTenn.good
2013• SuccopWash.30 F 10 mph winds
2014ParkeyWash.37 F cloudy
2012CundiffWash.good
2013GouldWash.ideal

—Ian Allan