Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Who should we be selecting in a rookie dynasty draft? Should a fantasy leaguer stay true to his draft board? A special offer from Draft Kings. And mulling changes to the Fantasy Index Super League.

Question 1

Ian, the time has arrived once again. Enjoyed last week's podcast! In our 12 team, 16 man rosters, non-ppr, keeper auction league (3 yr contracts), I just picked up Devonta Freeman via trade. I have the #5 pick in our rookie draft. Assuming 1-4 goes some order of Gordon-Cooper-White-Gurley, is #5 too early to pick Tevin Coleman to lock up Atlanta's running game? Or is it too much of a timeshare possibility and I should instead go Parker, Yeldon or Agholor? Also, I have Hyde for dirt cheap the next 2 years. I should be happy - but why am I so nervous? Thanks for all you do!

Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)

I like rosters where the pieces fit together. In the Mock Auction in the magazine, I purchased Jamaal Charles and DeMarco Murray, and I then invested to get Knile Davis and Ryan Mathews as insurance behind those guys. If either Charles or Murray gets hurt, it’s not a disaster. That league is different, of course, in that roster moves aren’t allowed during the season. In a 12-team league with 16-man rosters, you’ll have to decide how many good players will be available on the waiver wire. I think you can expect there will be a few. But for now, My leaning would be to bring in Coleman. My expectation is that Freeman will win that job and be their main back, but I don’t know that. The vast majority of people, I think, believe Coleman will be the No. 1 back there. I’m going with Freeman, based largely on a couple of good runs in the preseason last year and the fact that he caught 30 of the 38 passes thrown his way last year. I think we can say with some certainty that Freeman will be better as both a pass catcher and in protection on passing downs. Coleman went over 2,000 yards last year at Indiana, but that was out of a spread system, and those backs scare me. Bishop Sankey and LaMichael James were both selected in the second round after putting up monster numbers in similar kinds of offenses, and neither has done much of anything yet in the pros. But we must also factor in that Coleman might emerge in a big way in November or in 2016. If you get to see the guys play in the preseason some, then let’s take a look at some of these other guys. I don’t like Agholor’s physical measurables; he’s not as big or fast as I would like. But the Eagles seem to have a better idea of how to draw up plays for their wide receivers than other teams. Riley Cooper and Jordan Matthews both have had some success in that offense. The Eagles want Agholor to be their featured receiver, and DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin both have gone over 80 catches and 1,300 yards in that role the last two years.

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Question 2

Here's something that I have wondered about for a long time, Ian. You seem to stay pretty true to your numbers and predictions, and your analysis of players and teams, for me, is what sets you apart. When ranking players and drafting teams, though, to what extent do you account for upside and downside? In other words, any player could outproduce his predicted stats or under-produce. Say that you have Player X projected to score 150 points and Player Y projected to score 138. But, also say that you can't realistically see Player X go above 175, though he is a safe bet not to go below 125. Player Y, on the other hand, could drop below 100, but the conditions are there to bust out and have a 200+ point season. Sorry for the long question, but I've been wondering for quite a while how you compare and rank those two types of players. Perhaps, asked more accurately, when (if ever) do you pull the trigger on the guy with the upside (and downside), or do you always stick to your projections, confident that, in the end, they'll steer you better than the gambles?

Moishe Steigmann (Glendale, WI)

To me, you use projections to get guys in the initial approximate order. Without worrying about anybody else, I put together projections for each team and player. And part of that involved projecting how many games each player will be available. This puts the guys in an approximate order, so that each team you’re on the clock, you have 3-5 guys to choose from. But I don’t swear by it. There is no real statistical difference, for example, between a guy who’s projected to score 185 points and a guy who’s clocking in at 183. Periodically, I will slowly go through the list, tweaking the numbers of guys my gut tells me should be a little higher or a little lower. But even then, I don’t lock myself into exactly following my board. When on the clock, maybe I move a guy slightly because of his bye week. Or maybe I like that he has a favorable matchup in Week 16, which is the championship week in my league. Or the guy looks a little risky, when what I want is just safe production. In the recent Fanex Draft, I selected Dwayne Bowe in the 11th round, even though he was actually slightly lower than Rueben Randle, Terrance Williams and Marques Colston on my board. In the 9th round, I selected Doug Martin, even though he was lower on my board than Devonta Freeman. I guessed (correctly) that Freeman would still be available in the next round.

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Question 3

I am in a contract league and our rookie draft is on 7/25. I have the 9th & 11th picks this year and was hoping you could forward a list of your overall rookie rankings. I am planning on stashing both of them on my practice where Marqise Lee is sitting right now with 2 more years on his deal (we're allowed to hold three). Thanks again.

Ryan Logan (Minneapolis, MN)

The complete workup on the rookies is in the magazine, which you’ll have long before the 25th. If you’re picking 9th and 11th, I think you can operate under the assumption that Gurley, Gordon, Yeldon, Cooper and White will be long gone. Next in line probably will be the best of the running backs selected in the second and third round – Ameer Abdullah, Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson and David Johnson. They’re comparable to the second wave of wide receivers – DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor, Breshad Perriman and Philip Dorsett. Of the eight guys I just named, you will have a chance to pick from at least five of them. If you’re looking for instant impact, I have some interest in Agholor. You would be taking him sight unseen, but the Eagles have done a very good job utilizing their wide receivers in recent years. There are also a couple of guys not among the 13 I listed that I think you should consider. David Cobb might end up starting at running back for the Titans, and I believe Jaelen Strong will start right away for Houston and probably catch a healthy number of passes. I’m not sure how your league is structured, so I’m not sure if quarterbacks have much value, but I would also have Jameis Winston in the mix. In my opinion, there is no tight end worth considering at either 9 or 11.

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Question 4

I am wondering if you could you please let me know when the deadline is to enroll in the Super Fanatic Package/Draft Kings for the $25.00?

Dawn Olson (Braham, MN)

I don’t think there is a deadline. I think that offer will be there all summer. It’s a special promotion we’re doing with Draft Kings. They want people to come and try their one-day fantasy games. They are confident, I presume, that some percentage of those people will then stick around and continue to play their game.

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Question 5

I am a long-time customer who really enjoys your work (site, magazine & podcasts) and I am wondering if FFINDEX will ever do a best ball league for subscribers? I would love to compete against other subscribers and I know you have the Fantasy Index Super League, but I play in a LOT of leagues and invariably I tend to focus on my money leagues and forget to submit a lineup. Any chance you would consider a Master Draft (best ball) type league for your subscribers?

Frank Shinnick (Milford, MA)

We’ve got the Fantasy Index Open, which is kind of a best-ball league – you submit a top 20 at each position, and the best entry after 17 weeks is the winner. A best-ball league might be too similar. It might be better to make improvements to the Fantasy Index Super League with some rules changes. Most notably, instead of a year-long competition, maybe have four different contests – one for September, October, November and December. The top 10 finishers in each month would win entries in a playoff competition during the NFL postseason (if somebody was able to place in the top 10 in more than one month, he would have multiple entries in the postseason). The way it’s set up now, it looks hard to potentially catch up when somebody has a big lead halfway through the season. Under a month-to-month format, teams wouldn’t be as heavily penalized for missing a lineup in Week 7.

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