Recently we looked at how fantasy defenses perform from one year to the next; specifically, if the top fantasy defense one year could be counted on to be very good a year later. In scoring systems dependent only on sacks, turnovers, and defensive touchdowns, there's considerable year-to-year variance.
But if you're in a league where the scoring system is heavily dependent on points allowed, there is more reliability. Seattle, for example, was No. 1 in points allowed in 2014, and that's its third straight year of being No. 1 in that area. Last season, 9 of the top 15 defenses in terms of points allowed also ranked in the top 15 in that area the previous season.
The table below shows points-allowed rankings in each the last five seasons, sorted by their ranking for the average of that five-year span. Seattle, of course, is 1st. San Francisco, top-3 in three of those seasons, Pittsburgh and Baltimore (each top-6 three times) and New England (top-10 four times) round out the top 5.
Note that only two of the top-13 defenses (on average) over the last five years ranked outside the top 13 in 2014. A pretty good sign that if you target a defense that did well in terms of points allowed a year ago, you'll land one that performs well in 2015.
| TOP DEFENSES, POINTS ALLOWED, RANK (2010-2014) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | '14 | '13 | '12 | '11 | '10 | Avg. |
| Seattle | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 1 |
| San Francisco | 10 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 2 |
| Pittsburgh | 18 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Baltimore | 6 | 12 | 13T | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| New England | 8 | 10 | 10T | 15 | 8 | 5 |
| Miami | 20 | 8 | 7T | 6 | 14 | 6 |
| Kansas City | 2 | 5T | 26 | 12 | 11 | 7 |
| Cincinnati | 12 | 5T | 9 | 9 | 24 | 8 |
| Green Bay | 13T | 24T | 12 | 19 | 2 | 9 |
| San Diego | 13T | 11 | 17 | 22 | 10 | 10 |
| Cleveland | 9 | 23 | 21 | 5 | 13 | 11 |
| Arizona | 5 | 7 | 18 | 17 | 30 | 12 |
| Houston | 7 | 24T | 10T | 4 | 29 | 13 |
| Tennessee | 29T | 16 | 7T | 8 | 15 | 14 |
| Atlanta | 27 | 27 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 15 |
| St. Louis | 16T | 13 | 15T | 26 | 12 | 16 |
| Carolina | 21 | 2 | 19 | 27 | 26 | 17 |
| Chicago | 31 | 30T | 3 | 14 | 4 | 18 |
| New Orleans | 28 | 4 | 32 | 13 | 7 | 19 |
| NY Jets | 24 | 19 | 22 | 20 | 6 | 20 |
| Detroit | 3 | 15 | 28 | 23 | 19 | 21 |
| NY Giants | 22T | 18 | 13T | 25 | 17 | 22 |
| Denver | 16T | 22 | 4 | 24 | 32 | 23 |
| Indianapolis | 19 | 9 | 23 | 28 | 23 | 24 |
| Philadelphia | 22T | 17 | 30T | 10 | 21 | 25 |
| Dallas | 15 | 26 | 25 | 16 | 31 | 26 |
| Minnesota | 11 | 32 | 15T | 31 | 18 | 27 |
| Buffalo | 4 | 20 | 27 | 30 | 28 | 28 |
| Tampa Bay | 25 | 21 | 24 | 32 | 9 | 29 |
| Washington | 29T | 30T | 20 | 21 | 22 | 30 |
| Jacksonville | 26 | 28 | 30T | 11 | 27 | 31 |
| Oakland | 32 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 20 | 32 |
--Andy Richardson