I have poked around the past few days with the weighing of age and production among wide receivers. The very best numbers at this position seem to come in the window of ages 25 to 29. That’s where the real playmakers tend to be. Now let’s take a similar quick look at running backs.

For starters, here are the 25 best running backs of the last 25 years (along with their age on opening day). This is using the scoring system of 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards.

TOP 25 RUNNING BACKS OF LAST 25 YEARS
YearPlayerAgeRecRun TDFan
2006LaDainian Tomlinson275081,81531426.3
2000Marshall Faulk278301,35926378.9
2003Priest Holmes296901,42027373.0
2002Priest Holmes286721,61524372.7
1995Emmitt Smith263751,77325364.8
2005Shaun Alexander28781,88028363.8
1998Terrell Davis252172,00823360.5
2009Chris Johnson235032,00616348.9
2003Ahman Green263671,88320345.0
2003LaDainian Tomlinson247251,64517343.0
2001Marshall Faulk287651,38221342.7
2000Edgerrin James225941,70918340.3
2005Larry Johnson253431,75021335.3
2006Larry Johnson264101,78919333.9
2010Arian Foster246041,61618330.0
2006Steven Jackson238061,52816329.4
2002Ricky Williams253631,85317323.6
1997Barry Sanders293052,05314319.8
1992Emmitt Smith233351,71319318.8
1999Marshall Faulk261,0481,38112316.9
1999Edgerrin James215861,55317315.9
2005LaDainian Tomlinson263701,46220315.2
1994Emmitt Smith253411,48422314.5
1998Jamal Anderson253191,84616312.5
2013Jamaal Charles266931,28719312.0

For starters, note that none of these running backs are 30. Only two are even 29 years old (and just another three at 28). The big, knock-it-out-the-park production tends to come at ages 25 and 26.

This is something to keep in mind, I think, when we consider that for the 2015 draft, many of the top running back candidates are older guys. Adrian Peterson is 30. Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch and Arian Foster are all 29, and Jamaal Charles will be 29 before the end of the year.

Expanding it a bit, consider the top 5 backs for each of the last 25 years. So a pool of 125 running backs. Here’s how the ages of those guys shakes out (ages of September each year).

TOP-5 BACKS SINCE 1990
AgeNo
21-year-olds5
22-year-olds11
23-year-olds17
24-year-olds17
25-year-olds20
26-year-olds21
27-year-olds16
28-year-olds10
29-year-olds3
30-year-olds3
31-year-olds1
32-year-olds0
33-year-olds1

Note that there are only two players over 30 on the list – 2 out of 125. And only 3 players each for 29-year-olds and 30-year-olds. So when you draft Peterson, Forte, Lynch and Foster, it’s more realistic to be hoping for a serviceable top-10 back, rather than a guy who puts up really good numbers and finishes in the top 5.

As with wide receivers, the best numbers tend to come when players are 25 and 26 years old. Unlike wide receivers, however, there are more running backs putting up really big numbers in the two previous years rather than in the following two years. That is, there are 34 top-5 backs who were either 23 or 24 on opening day, versus just 26 backs who were either 27 or 28.

These kind of numbers support my sense that in general, when it’s the middle of the first round, you’re better off taking a premier wide receiver candidate – Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones – rather than crossing your fingers and hoping with one of these older running backs.

Thoughts?

—Ian Allan