I have poked around the past few days with the weighing of age and production among wide receivers. The very best numbers at this position seem to come in the window of ages 25 to 29. That’s where the real playmakers tend to be. Now let’s take a similar quick look at running backs.
For starters, here are the 25 best running backs of the last 25 years (along with their age on opening day). This is using the scoring system of 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards.
TOP 25 RUNNING BACKS OF LAST 25 YEARS | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Age | Rec | Run | TD | Fan |
2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 27 | 508 | 1,815 | 31 | 426.3 |
2000 | Marshall Faulk | 27 | 830 | 1,359 | 26 | 378.9 |
2003 | Priest Holmes | 29 | 690 | 1,420 | 27 | 373.0 |
2002 | Priest Holmes | 28 | 672 | 1,615 | 24 | 372.7 |
1995 | Emmitt Smith | 26 | 375 | 1,773 | 25 | 364.8 |
2005 | Shaun Alexander | 28 | 78 | 1,880 | 28 | 363.8 |
1998 | Terrell Davis | 25 | 217 | 2,008 | 23 | 360.5 |
2009 | Chris Johnson | 23 | 503 | 2,006 | 16 | 348.9 |
2003 | Ahman Green | 26 | 367 | 1,883 | 20 | 345.0 |
2003 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 24 | 725 | 1,645 | 17 | 343.0 |
2001 | Marshall Faulk | 28 | 765 | 1,382 | 21 | 342.7 |
2000 | Edgerrin James | 22 | 594 | 1,709 | 18 | 340.3 |
2005 | Larry Johnson | 25 | 343 | 1,750 | 21 | 335.3 |
2006 | Larry Johnson | 26 | 410 | 1,789 | 19 | 333.9 |
2010 | Arian Foster | 24 | 604 | 1,616 | 18 | 330.0 |
2006 | Steven Jackson | 23 | 806 | 1,528 | 16 | 329.4 |
2002 | Ricky Williams | 25 | 363 | 1,853 | 17 | 323.6 |
1997 | Barry Sanders | 29 | 305 | 2,053 | 14 | 319.8 |
1992 | Emmitt Smith | 23 | 335 | 1,713 | 19 | 318.8 |
1999 | Marshall Faulk | 26 | 1,048 | 1,381 | 12 | 316.9 |
1999 | Edgerrin James | 21 | 586 | 1,553 | 17 | 315.9 |
2005 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 26 | 370 | 1,462 | 20 | 315.2 |
1994 | Emmitt Smith | 25 | 341 | 1,484 | 22 | 314.5 |
1998 | Jamal Anderson | 25 | 319 | 1,846 | 16 | 312.5 |
2013 | Jamaal Charles | 26 | 693 | 1,287 | 19 | 312.0 |
For starters, note that none of these running backs are 30. Only two are even 29 years old (and just another three at 28). The big, knock-it-out-the-park production tends to come at ages 25 and 26.
This is something to keep in mind, I think, when we consider that for the 2015 draft, many of the top running back candidates are older guys. Adrian Peterson is 30. Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch and Arian Foster are all 29, and Jamaal Charles will be 29 before the end of the year.
Expanding it a bit, consider the top 5 backs for each of the last 25 years. So a pool of 125 running backs. Here’s how the ages of those guys shakes out (ages of September each year).
TOP-5 BACKS SINCE 1990 | |
---|---|
Age | No |
21-year-olds | 5 |
22-year-olds | 11 |
23-year-olds | 17 |
24-year-olds | 17 |
25-year-olds | 20 |
26-year-olds | 21 |
27-year-olds | 16 |
28-year-olds | 10 |
29-year-olds | 3 |
30-year-olds | 3 |
31-year-olds | 1 |
32-year-olds | 0 |
33-year-olds | 1 |
Note that there are only two players over 30 on the list – 2 out of 125. And only 3 players each for 29-year-olds and 30-year-olds. So when you draft Peterson, Forte, Lynch and Foster, it’s more realistic to be hoping for a serviceable top-10 back, rather than a guy who puts up really good numbers and finishes in the top 5.
As with wide receivers, the best numbers tend to come when players are 25 and 26 years old. Unlike wide receivers, however, there are more running backs putting up really big numbers in the two previous years rather than in the following two years. That is, there are 34 top-5 backs who were either 23 or 24 on opening day, versus just 26 backs who were either 27 or 28.
These kind of numbers support my sense that in general, when it’s the middle of the first round, you’re better off taking a premier wide receiver candidate – Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones – rather than crossing your fingers and hoping with one of these older running backs.
Thoughts?
—Ian Allan