Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition, rankings of the top punt returners and supply-demand info on the custom rankings (readers demand info, and Ian supplies it).
Question 1
Please give me from your rankings five PR2 or lower that may become PR1s this year.
CRAIG LEEDY (Sacramento, CA)
I’m not sure what a PR1 or a PR2 is. Punt returners, maybe? If so, there are only two that I really like. DeAnthony Thomas and Tavon Austin. Next in line, just a notch back, would be Devin Hester, Darren Sproles (both older guys), Antonio Brown, Travis Benjamin, Jacoby Jones and three rookies – Tyler Lockett (Seahawks), J.J. Nelson (Arizona) and Kaelin Clay (Bucs). I’ve given you only 10, so I guess by letter of the law I don’t consider any of those guys to be PR2 material in a 12-team league (they would have to be my PR1 options). But I’m guessing with everyone coming up with their own lists, some of those guys won’t be in anyone else’s top 10 in punt returners, and you’d be able to get one of them. The rankings I’m providing here, by the way, aren’t for total yards but for the likelihood they will return one for a touchdown. Calculating yards is a different animal.
Question 2
I just joined a 16-team PPR league. 1 each (qb, rb, wr, te, def, k) and 3 flex positions. 6 Pt passing TDs. Unfortunately, the draft order is decided just minutes before draft starts, so I will be unable to plan from a specific spot. It is a 16 round snake draft. My question is, what do you recommend for a draft strategy with what will clearly involve scarcity at all positions? Should I target a QB in Rd 1, or get a Stud WR to anchor the team and then backfill with RBs and WRs and grab a QB in Rd 3-4 before they dry up? I have entered my league settings to see the customized rankings but I'd really appreciate your take on how to attack a draft with so many teams.
Brett Watts (Florence, SC)
Quarterbacking is important, especially with the double whammy of 16 teams and 6-point TD passes. You’re not going to be able to pull an Eli Manning or Cam Newton out of your hat in the 12th round. I spent a few minutes playing around with the numbers on this league, and I’ve got 13 quarterbacks in my top 50 overall. That includes Rodgers and Luck at Nos. 3-4. Probably the most interesting value in that group is Joe Flacco. There’s the two super elite quarterbacks, then there are seven more that I think are pretty much interchangeable (I think guys like Matt Ryan and Cam Newton look just as good as older superstars like Drew Brees and Peyton Manning). Finally, there’s a third tier (I think) that’s just behind that second group of seven. I think Flacco is in this group. I think he’s pretty good, and I think his numbers will be helped along by the offensive changes being implemented by Marc Trestman. It’s my belief that I am higher on Flacco than the vast majority of everyone else, so Flacco could be the best “value” in your league. So that’s one issue. The other is this pesky rule involving double flex players. (And by flex, I’m assuming you mean RB-WR-TE; if your flex also includes quarterbacks, then you probably want to select quarterbacks with your first two picks.) But assuming it’s a traditional flex, my strategy in such a league is to just forget about positions and call all of those guys (RB-WR-TE) “players”. Each team needs to start five “players”. That’s 80 guys. And realistically, everyone is very interested in making sure they have 5-6 quality guys in these slots to cover for byes, injuries and scouting misfires. Using my projections, the top 120 stat-producers should include 63 wide receivers, 38 running backs and 19 tight ends. So that’s the ballpark area of where I would set the baselines at those positions. Use your past year’s data to guess how many of each position will be selected. We’ve got the “scoring profile” deal in the custom scoring section of the web. It’s in the “Your Stuff” area. Go in there and set up your scoring system. Then go into the “Auction Values” section (even if you’re not using an auction) to set up the supply-demand figures. In a rough sense, I think you’ll be looking at 32 quarterbacks being selected, with about 21 being significant (being worth more than $1). Maybe 65-70 running backs selected, with about 40 worth more than $1. About 90 wide receivers selected, with about 65 worth more than $1. And about 32 and 20 for the tight ends.
Question 3
It seems every league seems to try and lump themselves into either PPR or standard scoring. My league gives a 1 point for every 2 receptions and 1 point for every 6th completion. I am unsure that it fits either as all TDs are 6 pts. Can you give an assessment of where my league's scoring fits in?
Jay Monahan (Cincinnati, OH)
Such a league is perfect for the custom scoring tool we have at the web. Click on the “Your Stuff” link in the upper right corner of the home page. Then click on “Your Scoring Profiles”. Then you can create a new scoring system, in which you define exactly what you want everything to be worth. Rather than putting in 1 point per reception, you enter in .5 points per reception (I think it would also allow you to define 1 point per 2 receptions, but it doesn’t matter). There is no option for giving points for completions, but you can jimmy-rig that in using yards. The average pass completion is 11.5 yards, so 1 point for every 6 completions is very similar to 1 point for every 69 passing yards. If you’re already using 1 point for every 20 passing yards, just chance that to 1.3 points for every 20 passing yards. Anywho, take a minute or two to plug in your scoring system, and you’ll get a draft board that networks our stat projections with your fantasy league.
Question 4
Are you going to have the Subscriber League again this year, and if so, how do I sign up?
DANIEL MARTINEZ (YUBA CITY, CA)
We’ll run that contest again – the Fantasy Index Super League. Not sure if the format will be the same. I’ve always thought it could be improved with a few minor tweaks. One option would be to call it Fantasy Index Blackout, where a few key players are removed. That is, when Peyton Manning was on fire a few years back, throwing 55 TDs, I think it would have made the contest better to have him (and other players like that) removed in at least some weeks. Another possible wrinkle would be to add the stipulation that you can’t select two players from the same NFL team. I believe I would vote in favor of that one. If you’ve got any suggestions, put them in the comments.
Question 5
26 years in the same 16-team league with 11 of the original owners. I have used your products from day one because unlike other owners I trust the professionals: you. However, it would save me a bunch of time if you could produce a cheatsheet geared to a 16-team league. Just think as long as I have been playing I have NEVER seen a company produce one. There may have been a 14-team somewhere but the data and analysis just doesn't compare. Could you please be the first to produce such a list based on a difficult 16-team draft?
PAT DINAPOLI (Boardman, OH)
The data is all there for you to work with. Go to “My Stuff” and create a new Scoring profile. Take 2 minutes to enter in your league’s exact scoring system. More importantly, then click on the “auction values” link to merge in the relevant supply-demand data from your league. Without knowing exactly what you’re doing, I would guess that 32 quarterbacks will be selected in your league, and about 21 of them will be guys we care about (guys we want factored into the equation of who’s being selected in the first 8-9 rounds). I will guess that 32 kickers will be selected, and that we’ll care about maybe 7-8 of them. For Defenses, I’m thinking 32 will be selected, and we care about maybe 10 of them. For running backs, I’ll guess that 64 will be chosen, and that 45 of those are significant. Tight ends, let’s say 32 will be selected and call 20 of them significant. And with wide receivers, I’ll go with 80 and 60. Those numbers are just my guesses. Yours should be better, because you have the advantage of being in the league. You know the roster rules and scoring system, and you have the benefit of know how many guys have been selected in all the previous drafts. Look at that data for a few minutes. Figure out how many are being chosen at each position each year, and then set the initial baselines at how many are being selected before the 10th round each year.
Question 6
A little late getting the magazine this year, which is now well over 20 years. Sorry if I missed information you already had out but is there going to be a Fantasy Index Open this year? Thank you.
eric gustitus (Exeter, PA)
Yes. Fantasy Index Open is on. Entries are due two weeks from Thursday. Send an email to FantasyIndexOpen@gmail.com if you would like to participate.